CaptainNameless

Not trying to fan flames here, just floating possible scenarios we may face if this merger goes through.

IAH is going to be United's largest hub. United is most likely going to want most of the RJs going in there to be larger than 50 seats at some point. ORD will be second largest. Same story there, along with IAD and EWR. I would guess the majority of the 50 seat ops would be sent to thinner markets out west where airport capacity isn't as jammed up as it is in the east half of the country.

So as XJT's fleet and ASA's CRJ2s enters the waning years, they will start to get sent west out of the IAH/ORD/IAD/EWR service area and into the LAX/SFO/SEA/DEN area. I think this will happen if SKW is one list or ASA and SKW are kept separate. Crews will not be retrained in new aircraft to prevent pilots from losing their domicile. I guess what I mean is, if you're a 70/90 seat CRJ pilot, you may face displacement east into IAH, EWR, IAD, and ORD. If you're a 50 seat or less pilot with whichever division, you have a greater chance of keeping your (west) base, or being displaced west (XJT/ASA 50-seat guys).

Just an observation because it sounds like a lot of SKW guys are worried about losing their base in a merger. I think it just depends on which fleet you are on, and there may be little anyone can do in the future when United decides what they want and where. I think there may be a LOT of unhappy XJT guys getting sent where they don't want to go if the fleet allocation follows what I think is likely to happen, and are not allowed to maintain domicile by switching aircraft. Anyway, just another example of how SKW pilots are invloved in all this along with ASA and XJT. If you are going to be flying United pax, you are pretty involved.

I don't know, which is cheaper, retraining crews for different planes or paying moving expenses? Does SKW cover moving expenses if your base is sent elsewhere? (OK, maybe that's flamebait).

TonyWilliams

I believe when ATL opened for SkyWest Airlines, they did pay some token moving expense. To put that in perspective, Emirates pays $48,000 if you wan to buy a house in base.

Moderator note: PLEASE think before posting on this thread. Don't attack the messenger, debate the issue.

Captain Tony

I think the OP is WAAAY putting the cart before the horse. It assumes that SkyWest will be part of the merger, and as of now it isn't. I'd wager that XJET's odds of enforcing their scope to a three way is remote at best, and even if that does happen, you're forecasting something 10 years down the road! (10 year capacity agreement with UAL as part of this deal). The airlines have repeatedly proven that they can't reliably plan ahead more than 6 months.

reelbigchair

Interesting theory... I think it's more likely than you think. SkyW is already seeing a little bit of this on the Delta side. Quite a few of our 900's are in and out of MSP all day despite it being a very small operation for us with no pilot domicile. So the idea the future United will want 70 ops in IAH is by no means outrageous. Something about SkyW, you are apparently unaware of.... We have no 70/90 dedicated crews. Every RJ pilot is qualified (or at least quickly qualified via line check) to fly every RJ. In your scenario obviously we wouldn't be able to fly the EMB if they moved them west, but we could still fly all the 200's.

reelbigchair

I agree that many of our west coast guys are concerned about their very senior west coast base, however I think they'd be just fine. I'm not sure how many ultra senior ASA/XJT pilots desire to live in California. I do think the SLC concerns are valid given that it used to be a base for ASA. I am more concerned with my junior base, ORD. It's a lot closer to the ASA/XJT hubs, and any commuter to those airlines who either lives in the north, or might get a better schedule with the drastically larger base in comparison to what XJT has now, might bump me down or take an upgrade. It's really great for me to live in a base that most senior SkyWest pilots are allergic to and wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. In the merger I think that base would turn into EWR. For my curiosity, does anyone at ASA or XJT know what overall percentage captain has fallen to? It's around 67% for the bottom 5-10 RJ captains in ORD. (And before anyone mentions it, yes I am familiar with fences, etc... this is just my personal merger concern.)

Nevets

When XJT had an ONT and LAX base, they went very junior. In fact, ORD is very junior as well. All three of those bases were or are the junior bases. The most junior captain is 51% and is ORD based.

reelbigchair

Thanks Nevets, that helps alleviate my QOL concern as a F/O, but it does indicate that the majority of XJT pilots care about upgrade more than where they want to live or the schedule they might get. I know this is extremely simplified, but that's 16% of the XJT list that would be senior to the junior SkyWest captain and also hasn't yet had a chance to upgrade. All of whom, in theory, would take the upgrade before it got back down to the same point on the list it already is at SkyWest. That's roughly, not including ASA, about 390 pilots. If assuming ASA has similar numbers, it shoots up to 650 pilots that meet that criterium. To put it in perspective, 16% of the skywest list is 430 pilots. Yet there are only about 100 pilots senior to 67% that currently have a bid in for Chicago as a Capt. I recognize a 7000 pilot list has a lot of advantages, but I think if you look at these numbers objectively you have to admit any SkyWest pilot based in Chicago stands to lose quite a bit of ground in the combined pilot group.

Still interested in knowing where Captain falls at ASA... I admit to being surprised by the 51%.

CaptainNameless

No. Not assuming SKW will be part of the merger at all. The point is, Skywest pilots WILL be subject to the SKW Inc. total fleet (ASA+XJT+SKW+yet-to-be named-acquisitions) being completely reshuffled among the new/old United hubs in a way that may not be what Skywest pilots have in mind about how they hope the future unfolds. The point is, unless I am missing something, the total Inc. fleet will be allocated as Inc. intends in order to service the new merged United, and that could be a very different future than the present picture. Skywest Airlines is a part of that fleet plan merger or not. That's all. 10 year CPA doesn't stipulate where any of those airplanes will be operated. Could be anywhere in the United system where United wants them, so the comment is regarding the most logical placement of the RJ fleet in terms of aircraft seating capacity. Higher capacity hubs=bigger airplanes. Lower capacity hubs=smaller airplanes. More like 2-3 years, not 10 years down the road.

Nevets

There are probably a couple hundred FOs that have had a chance to upgrade and didn't and there are also about 100 that have upgraded and are now FOs again.

Keep in mind that whatever happens, no one will be able to bump anyone from their seat, base, or aircraft. People will only be able to bid in to vacancies. I'm almost sure of this. It will cost way to much in training and moving expenses.

Slaphappy

give it a rest, skw isn't part of the merger and never will be. You'll take it to court and lose.