Pielut

I respectfully disagree, if they keep the lists separate, management still has everyone by the balls. They will figure out who will do it cheaper and the magic whipsaw starts again.

While this is a great sentiment, it will never happen. If they can get people to take the jobs at these crappy wages they have no incentive to improve anything.

Exactly, not everyone is moving on, that is just a fact. There are not enough jobs at major carriers for that to happen.

I hope I am wrong and everything I just wrote is proven incorrect.

dba74

We are entering an exciting new era that could be very synergetic for both pilots and management if done correctly. Could get real interesting if Eagle gets bought by Skywest. Welcome and good luck to XJT guys!

flyingreasemnky

So what happens when more and more pilots decide to make a career out of being a regional captain? Eventually won't there be a bottleneck where no one can upgrade especially with one list?

DashDriverYV

That is exactly what I'm hoping for. I have often thought what regional captain would bail out to go to the majors. Leaving Mesa is one thing, we are almost all trying, but who in their right mind would leave a good regional spot. The only catch is the PIC turbine requirement at mainline will have to modified for the lack of future upgrades.

goaround2000

Some of you guys have very short memories. During the last round of hirings at the Majors/LCC's ('04-'07) there were folks hired without PIC, particularly towards the end of that cycle. It's all supply and demand, so of course, they'll take DNA and friends first, then best qualified, then second best, and so on. While it's not a regular trend, it was starting to turn into a regular occurance. If most senior regional captains (hypothetically speaking) decided to bypass and stay, those spots would simply be occupied by guys junior to them. It's that simple.

CheapFlyer

Not really, there will always be upgrades happening. It's just a question of how many. Senior lineholders with a great line will not move on (for the most part). The junior captains with crappy schedules will try to do their time and move on. There will always be people leaving in some form or another.

As someone said before... expect very long upgrades unless there is massive hiring at the majors for consecutive years.

bcrosier

Bear in mind, the last few years have seen several airlines with very experienced pilots either fold or furlough. There have been a number of those pilots who have taken positions at regionals just to stay current. A good number of them will jump ship at the first opportunity, so some airlines hiring/retention numbers may be about to change.

PeezDog

This is just my opinion on this but here it is. I don't think its gonna be as bad as people seem to think. I know about 5 or 6 guys that now have 1500 hrs or pretty close. Since the last two years no one has hired, they have been stuck at their instructing/charter jobs building time. There's probably alot of you that know people in the same boat. So there has to be a ton of guys with 1500 hrs salivating for a job at a regional. Plus with the caveat about FAA being able to reduce time for certain schools and such.

Now with respect to the mergers. I know that ASA is short and has a need to hire, when, if, and how many I don't know. Expressjet is now recalling guys and hopefully will recall all if not most before the merger is complete. If the current trend continues and ASA already needs pilots, and XJT is calling back right now, and demand picking up, then wouldn't would we eventually need more pilots? Therefore people coming in under the junior guys. Because if both airlines now can hardly crew their aircraft (mostly ASA then XJT), then wouldn't it be the same when both are combined?

And as far as attrition. In like 5 years or so, isn't there going to be a ton of retirement? Example from other thread Delta 2015 - 278 (http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...s-delta-3.html.) So will there not be a need to fill those spots? I'm sure other majors and prob even some regionals will have alot of retirements too. Your thoughts...

jwes

I hope that it will be one list... I remember when Eagle was in 4 divisions (Simmons, Command, Wings West, Executive) and it was a mess. Whipsawed to the 10th degree!!

Bustin

Am I missing something here? Why would a 7000 pilot regional airline have less attrition than the combined attrition of 3 different regional pilot groups equalling 7000 bodies? When Delta hires 300 people they don't dictate that those 300 people must come from some set number of different airlines. It seems to me that instead of say 30 going from Express Jet, 30 from ASA and 30 from Skywest you would just get 90 leaving from the 7000 pilot super airline essentially having no ill effect on the upgrade time. Honestly, someone tell me what I'm missing here.

I'm not sure why no one mentioned that Skywest has already vocalized their interest in acquiring Comair. No mention of Eagle. Obviously not off the table but indications are Comair at the moment. And if you're looking for a reference just find any press release about the ASA-Express Jet merger.

Great first post by the way. This is an interesting thing happening in the industry. No doubt if we could look 5 years ahead in time we probably wouldn't recognize it!