FL510

BINGO!!!!!!!

JungleBus

Really? You obviously missed 2006-2008, there was a pretty severe shortage, the worst regionals were hiring guys with brand new commercial-multi licenses and many regionals were paying hiring bonuses to those with previous 121 time. It would have continued and worsened had the economy not gone off the cliff at the same time age 65 went through, because while new student starts were up somewhat, they weren't up *that* much.

Now, of course Kit & Co always implied the shortage would be at the major airline level, not just at the crappiest regional airlines. The existence of our current 2-tier system ensures that the majors will always have a steady supply of qualified, eager candidates. However, even the crappy regionals having to fight for qualified candidates is a very positive development because it is the ability of majors to play regionals off of each other that has traditionally kept their labor costs low, and therefore exerted downward pressure on major airline payrates and work rules. The shortage will return within a few years, it will again be confined to regional airlines, but even this will be a positive development for the profession as a whole.

ChipChelios

This is just my opinion but any shortage that does not drive up wages is not much of a shortage! They did come close to a shortage which was made evident by the offers of hiring bonuses and the overnight, back door, behind the scenes, keep it on the hush retirement age increase but they still were not short enough to start offering better wages. It's like a prophecy that almost came true.

robthree

Western Pilots in 3rd world countries are much better compensated than we are. Locals are often paid much less. And it was reported recently about Chinese pilots being fined millions of dollars for quiting their jobs - something about a lifetime contract.

Worldwide demand for new pilots is projected to exceed worldwide ability to produce new pilots. One can only hope that that will produce upward pressure on wages. But I'm not optimistic that it will really happen.

mwa1

a shortage or a shortage at a price. kind of hard to justify leaving school with 100K + in debt for a sub 20K job while other degree plans offer triple this the first year.

JungleBus

I agree, it's finally getting to the point where the impracticality of it overrides the "sex appeal" of a flying career. That along with the cheap loans drying up has contributed mightily to the major decrease in new student starts. FBOs and flight schools are closing constantly. Daniel Webster announced just the other day that they're shutting down their aviation department. My alma mater, UND, now trains far more foreign students on contract than traditional undergrads. All this means that when retirements start up again and when the economy takes off, and there's a giant sucking sound of an exodus from the regionals to the majors...there will again be a shortage of pilots at the regionals, particularly the ones who don't pay well and mistreat their pilots. It won't be enough to really justify going into flying for someone considering it as Kit Darby would suggest, but it will be a real opportunity for those of us who would like to see mainline recapture a portion of the flying that has been lost to the regionals.

Beagle Pilot

Agreed with most of what you are saying except the part about "recapture". Unless mainlines are able to compete with LCCs in the medium to small markets, they'll have to drop out of those markets. This isn't good for the airlines nor their pilots, mainline or not. Those 777s to Heathrow and Narita don't fill up themselves.

That said, I don't see any "recapturing" being done as much as seeing a return to stability; a drop in the amount of domestic flying being lost by mainlines to lower cost airlines. The regionals will have to up their pay, benefits and treatment to both attract new pilots and, if there is a lack of new pilots, retain those they have in order to prevent the giant sucking sound you mentioned. This is as good for those like myself who are too old to start over at another airline as it is for those who wish to move on.

Ftrooppilot

Govt attempting to increase hiring mins to 850 or possibly ATP.


The news out of congress makes me think the storm may come sooner then 2015.

xjsaab

Crazy ass theory. There is a huge pilot shortage, Delta purchases... Air Willie or Skywest. Takes all pilots from that airline and staples them on the bottom of their seniority list. Nullifies contract with mainline, ie Usairways or United. Thus causing financial harm to competition. Has an immediate pool of "qualified" pilots to replenish retiring pilots. Not good for whollyowned pilots but will enhance financial stability of Delta.

Just a thought, don't think it would happen. But what if?

Ftrooppilot

IF there were a severe pilot shortage "Pilot groups" such as those at regionals become a high value marketable product. Their companies and contractors will be very defensive. To nulify is to render or declare legally void or inoperative. The lawyers would have a ball and use up all those fund that could be defered into regional pilot pay.

A better idea (perhaps less legally complicated) would be to staple a wholy owned like Mesaba, implement regional aircraft pay rates similar to Jet Blue (helps retention), build a three year fence to preclude downward bidding (ie. DC9 FO to CRJ Capt) and allow senior regional pilot advancement to the major as attrition (retirements, etc.) causes losses at the top.

Is that a pipe dream of what.