Flyby1206

Agreed, sadly I think single pilot airlines will be the industry's answer to pilot shortage (if/when we really do see a shortage). The article shows how FlyBe has taken a more organic approach to creating highly trained employees, but would that catch on here in the states?

Blueskies21

I agree that there will never be a pilot shortage, as several other people were mentioning RyanAir has never has a shortage in 20 some years. I thought that article was going to be ab-initio training which has sometimes been the method of choice for Europe but it looked to me that RyanAir was just bragging about their pay for training scheme and how much money they could get "cadets" to pay for academy training and to buy their type ratings... if this is the way "Europe is ahead of America" I hope we never catch up.

stbloc

I don't see on that sheet where numbers are lagging. To me it looks like enrollment is up 1.5%. Can you please update us with some figures or PM them to me. I'm interested to know whats in the pipeline since I read conflicting information on various sites.
Thanks

Flyby1206

Sure, I reviewed all the past ERAU enrollment stat sheets and posted below the number of new students for each academic year in the Aeronautical Science Program. The figure includes Prescott and Daytona campuses, Spring and Fall semesters of each year.

92-93: 578
93-94: 692
94-95: 696
95-96: 710
96-97: 743
97-98: 968
98-99: 866
99-00: 927
00-01: 935
01-02: 929
02-03: 815
03-04: 712
04-05: 526
05-06: 509
06-07: 571
07-08: 503
08-(spring 09 isnt published yet): 515

Looks like there was a steady increase of Aero Sci students up to 01-02 and then a rapid decrease until leveling off at around 500-600 new students per year (compared to 900-1000 in "good times").

Judging by this, the peak of 01-02 would have graduated 05-06 (which is the same time period for the ultra low time hiring practices at airlines). Going forward there wont be a huge glut of pilots coming out of school like there was pre-2006.

I know this isnt a complete analysis of all possible new pilots, but ERAU is a good indicator of the trends in the industry.

PSACFI

Oh yeah they are waaay down at small flight schools too. I'm still racking up a fair number of hours instructing though. Should get my ATP mins this year. Then I'll make it big time, I'm already planning on getting a gold plated toilet

AxialFlow

Of my friends who are pilots, not one is recommending aviation as a career for their children. I know several pilots who have taken voluntary LOA's to go back to school for a career change.

The only one's still pushing the "dream" are souless organizations like Embry Riddle and the RAA.

Flyby1206

Even Riddle has been pulling away from the Airline pilot career path. They have been promoting their engineering programs as their flagship degree program instead of the flying degrees. There was a push a few years ago to even drop Aeronautical from the ERAU name.

dwightkschrute

the real question is whether or not the United States will ever again have airlines with FA's like the ones about a quarter of the way down the article. you know instead of hiring mustache Mable or 200-pound Agnes.

http://stupidcelebrities.net/2008/11...ls-of-ryanair/

Exactly.

SilverandSore

Amazing that Ryanair could field 12 hotties like that for a poster. ASA would have trouble coming up with a 3 month calendar, and that's including every FA that ever worked for the airline. (And I'm including as one of those months the FA that was a playboy fresh face!)

Left Handed

This propaganda was fed to us in college in 1986. I am still waiting for the "shortage" to show up.