Even more qualified pilots on the street...
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: CRJ
Posts: 2,356
if you read his post that is just for just a few airlines. It does not include LOTS of other carriers. And yes it will still be a couple of years, but it is coming.
#13
Those numbers do not include FedEx, UPS, USAir, Hawaiian, Alaska, Jetblue, Southwest, Airtran....etc. So unless the 65 rule is an exception to those carriers, you can probably double the retirement numbers, or at the very very least increase them by 35%.
#14
#15
Also guys this is assuming that no one retires early, and the airline sizes stay exactly the same as they are now, with no re-growth factored in.
If the country comes out of the recession and normal demand levels eventually return, airlines will be scrambling for pilots.
If the country comes out of the recession and normal demand levels eventually return, airlines will be scrambling for pilots.
#16
#17
The retirement numbers do not appear unrealistic, there are a lot of old guys out there.
However...Kit Darby made a lot of money throwing around similar figures for years. Don't forget to factor in mergers, consolidation, rabid environmentalism, etc.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
However...Kit Darby made a lot of money throwing around similar figures for years. Don't forget to factor in mergers, consolidation, rabid environmentalism, etc.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
#18
•Allegiant
•Spirit
•Sun Country
•USA 3000
•Virgin America
•ABX Air
•AirNet
•Ameriflight
•Amerijet
•Arrow
•Astar
•ATI
•Atlas
•Capital
•Centurion
•Empire
•Evergreen
•Flight Express
•Kalitta Air
•Kalitta Charters II
•Lynden
•Mountain Air Cargo
•National
•Polar
•Southern Air
•Tradewinds
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2009
Posts: 936
First let me start with the Furloughs
Alaska - 60
American - 1979
CAL - 400
UAL - 874
USair - 227
Air Cargo Carriers - 1
ABX - 254
AirNEt Cargo - 40
Arrow Cargo - 30
Atlas Cargo - 62
Centurion Cargo - 5
Empire Cargo - 4
Kalitta - 130
Key Lime -4
Omni - 40
Ryan Air - 36
Southern Air - 71
Tradewinds - 92
World - 34
Xtra - 15
Amr Eagle - 71
ASA - 136
Air wisky - 22
Comair - 298
Express Jet - 335
Frontier - 56
Gulfstream - 50
Horizon - 84
Island Air - 10
Mesa - 136
Mesaba - 39
Midwest - 270
Penair - 15
PSA - 55
RAH - 104
Spirit - 78
Sun Country 36
Trans States - 158
USA 3000 - 11
NetJets - 500
Total = 6762
Alaska - 60
American - 1979
CAL - 400
UAL - 874
USair - 227
Air Cargo Carriers - 1
ABX - 254
AirNEt Cargo - 40
Arrow Cargo - 30
Atlas Cargo - 62
Centurion Cargo - 5
Empire Cargo - 4
Kalitta - 130
Key Lime -4
Omni - 40
Ryan Air - 36
Southern Air - 71
Tradewinds - 92
World - 34
Xtra - 15
Amr Eagle - 71
ASA - 136
Air wisky - 22
Comair - 298
Express Jet - 335
Frontier - 56
Gulfstream - 50
Horizon - 84
Island Air - 10
Mesa - 136
Mesaba - 39
Midwest - 270
Penair - 15
PSA - 55
RAH - 104
Spirit - 78
Sun Country 36
Trans States - 158
USA 3000 - 11
NetJets - 500
Total = 6762
Piedmont 71
Mesaba 79
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