Even more qualified pilots on the street...
11-15-2009, 02:12 PM
#151
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Shortage
Yup me too. I was climbing the ladder during the "Vietnam" retirement wave that was supposed to happen. In the 1970's there was suppose to be a WWII shortage due to retirements.
I am sure that those guys eventually retired but it really did not seem to make much of a difference downstream.
Skyhigh
I am sure that those guys eventually retired but it really did not seem to make much of a difference downstream.
Skyhigh
11-15-2009, 03:37 PM
#152
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: The Beginnings
Posts: 1,317
The retirement numbers do not appear unrealistic, there are a lot of old guys out there.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
I can't see UAL or AMR recalling all of their furloughs in the foreseeable future. The prognosis is still uncertain in my book.
And the elephant in the room: Oil. Even if economical Jet A alternatives can be rapidly implemented, the damage to the greater economy caused by sky-high oil prices would kill a lot of demand and growth prospects.
In my mind the future comes down to two questions:
1. How much oil is really left?
2. How quickly can we employ alternative energy sources if we are on the downside of peak oil?
Answer those questions, and you know the future of the airlines.
Air travel will always be there, but even with alternative fuels, it's going to get way more expensive over our lifetimes.
Casual air travelers won't be able to afford it, and businesses will find ever improving tele-conferencing a cost effective alternative.
Of course, someone might discover the "magic fuel" that solves all of this, but I don't see ANYTHING like that right now. Ethanol, coal gassification, bio-diesel, etc. are all exotic niches that don't have the economics to support today's air travel demands.
11-15-2009, 04:15 PM
#153
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Center seat, doing loops to music
Posts: 843
Capacity constriction and scope relaxation = less than one-for-one attrition replacement. Your retirement wave is DOA. Many won't listen and will continue to become statistics.
If your dream is a perma regional CA, with all that regional flying entails QOL-wise, and never making over 100K, there will be a job for you. If you are looking at the guys retiring right now, forget it, that's gone. If you think there's going to be a slide-in replacement of folks to these jobs in the next 3 decades, you're fooling yourself. It's your journey though; I'm running full steam ahead, AWAY from the terminal (i.e. working for money, and flying for fun). Good luck, we're all counting on ya.
If your dream is a perma regional CA, with all that regional flying entails QOL-wise, and never making over 100K, there will be a job for you. If you are looking at the guys retiring right now, forget it, that's gone. If you think there's going to be a slide-in replacement of folks to these jobs in the next 3 decades, you're fooling yourself. It's your journey though; I'm running full steam ahead, AWAY from the terminal (i.e. working for money, and flying for fun). Good luck, we're all counting on ya.
11-15-2009, 05:44 PM
#154
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 767 FO
Posts: 396
Capacity constriction and scope relaxation = less than one-for-one attrition replacement. Your retirement wave is DOA. Many won't listen and will continue to become statistics.
If your dream is a perma regional CA, with all that regional flying entails QOL-wise, and never making over 100K, there will be a job for you. If you are looking at the guys retiring right now, forget it, that's gone. If you think there's going to be a slide-in replacement of folks to these jobs in the next 3 decades, you're fooling yourself. It's your journey though; I'm running full steam ahead, AWAY from the terminal (i.e. working for money, and flying for fun). Good luck, we're all counting on ya.
If your dream is a perma regional CA, with all that regional flying entails QOL-wise, and never making over 100K, there will be a job for you. If you are looking at the guys retiring right now, forget it, that's gone. If you think there's going to be a slide-in replacement of folks to these jobs in the next 3 decades, you're fooling yourself. It's your journey though; I'm running full steam ahead, AWAY from the terminal (i.e. working for money, and flying for fun). Good luck, we're all counting on ya.
Yes, this is one of my concerns as well w/ the regional expansion that has occurred. The other issue is that a retirement wave at the majors does not equal hiring opportunities there. I could just as easily see the larger carriers shrinking as the retirements occur, which would stifle most job opportunites there.
RickAir mentioned quanitity of oil in this earth. This planet will always have a crap-ton of oil. That will never be an issue. The bigger issue is that w/ 7 billion people on the planet, we can't extract/produce oil quick enough to match demand during periods of global economic expansion/growth.
11-15-2009, 06:54 PM
#155
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: 767 captain
Posts: 2,701
What college did you go to in order to get this educated about oil, and the intricacies of the oil production process? This is fascinating stuff and should turn the world of geology on it's ears
11-15-2009, 07:16 PM
#156
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 767 FO
Posts: 396
11-15-2009, 07:42 PM
#158
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: 767 captain
Posts: 2,701
11-16-2009, 05:11 PM
#159
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 767 FO
Posts: 396
We have an estimated 1.5 TRILLION barrels along the western slope of Colorado extending from Grand Junction, Colorado on into eastern Utah.
Green River Formation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The problem is that it will probably never be resourcefully extracted due to exorbitant production costs. Imagine sitting on that many bbl of oil and not being able to get it out of the ground!
I'll agree that conventional resources are running more and more slim. I've beaten this subject into the ground over the last several years on APC, so there's no point to self-induced carpal-tunnel syndrome trying to explain basic geologic principles in this debate all over again.
It comes down to production, not overall supply. When no matter what we do globally, we can't produce more than 90 million bbl/day, yet global population still grows unchecked, we have a problem. A production problem that can't be solved.
Green River Formation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The problem is that it will probably never be resourcefully extracted due to exorbitant production costs. Imagine sitting on that many bbl of oil and not being able to get it out of the ground!
I'll agree that conventional resources are running more and more slim. I've beaten this subject into the ground over the last several years on APC, so there's no point to self-induced carpal-tunnel syndrome trying to explain basic geologic principles in this debate all over again.
It comes down to production, not overall supply. When no matter what we do globally, we can't produce more than 90 million bbl/day, yet global population still grows unchecked, we have a problem. A production problem that can't be solved.
11-16-2009, 05:53 PM
#160
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Position: G280- Captain
Posts: 202
My $.02
Here is an interesting article about origins of oil:
The ?Abiotic Oil? Controversy | Energy Bulletin
The ?Abiotic Oil? Controversy | Energy Bulletin
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