kersplatt

The majors don't have to hire someone with 1000 PIC turbine time like they have in the past. They could lower their mins to 1000 turbine SIC and probably have a pretty good pool of pilots. Obviously they lack experience and PIC skills but it would be a lot higher standard than what other countries FO's entry level experience at the majors and they seem to be doing OK. I don't predict that they will lower their standards drastically like a commercial license with wet ink as previously suggested but they could lower it a little and still have plenty of applicants. It will be the regionals that will struggle to keep up with the turnover.

The simple fact is the airline industry is struggling for many reasons other than recession. Not many were doing well before. The cost of fuel directly affects profit and the price is not always an indication of a bad/good economy. I know this is like beating a dead horse, but the age 65 retirement affected hiring a lot. So we have about 4 more years before the old guys hang their hats and the majors will need to replace them. Before the age was bumped back 5 years, we were on the verge of a pilot shortage. It was obvious at the regional level when 250 hour wonders were flying big shiny jets.

As far as the answer to the original post. Depending on which 121 carrier you were furloughed from would indicate when you will go back. I think Express Jet is going to take a LONG time to rebound because they shut down their branded flying and would have to get a lot of flying or have a lot of pilots leave before they recall their furloughed pilots. Mesa has a high turnover so when the majors start hiring, they will rebound fast if they don't lose too much flying.

JetPipeOverht

This lacking PIC skills argument, to me, doesn't hold water because you will be an FO at the Major for quite some time if you were lucky enough to be hired right now. Who better than an experienced FO to move onto such a position, as opposed to a CA who is jaded, angry, and stagnant- and will more than likely carry that attitude to another level when hired as an FO to a major ?

250 or point 65

Nah, I'd say not quite. I used to make the supply and demand argument, but I stopped since I've become an airline pilot.

Due to the RLA and mgmt's ability to open the pool of applicants, wages only go down. I'll agree with you that a surplus drives wages down, but a shortage does not drive wages up. Need more pilots, lower the mins! Don't wanna negotiate higher wages? Wait for a downturn!

SkyHigh

In the past Delta Airlines would not hire someone with previous part 121 captain time. They believed that once someone learned their bad habits from another company it would be difficult to retrain them.

Airlines set minimums on what the current trends are. I highly doubt if it has any bearing on who the best pilots are however it makes sense to hire pilots who have already been institutionalized as 121 pilots.

However now there seems to be an interest in hiring pilots with a diversified background. Perhaps we will see a change in hiring practices in effort to find more "Sullys" and fewer corporate automatons who hired strait into a regional with 300 hours.

Skyhigh

Adlerdriver

Why would they lower their mins? They don't need to. Maybe they don't want a pool of just "pretty good pilots". Even when everyone was hiring, they were still hiring pilots with at least 1000 PIC turbine. It's not like it was that hard to find plenty of pilots at least that qualified. Many also required the ability to get an ATP if not an unwritten requirement to actually have one. It should stay that way if not become an actual requirement. ATP only.

The fact that other countries do something else is irrelevant and doesn't make it okay.

Yes, the people you're advocating hiring WOULD lack experience and PIC time. So, why would they be worth hiring? Just because they'll be an FO for a while doesn't mean PIC experience is not a factor. PIC experience is important. Some pilots were never meant to be in the left seat of an airliner and that's just the way it is. It shouldn't be up to an airline to determine that after they hire someone. They start doing that and perhaps they figure it out the hard way........... like when they stall a perfectly good airplane and kill everyone on board. Even with the PIC requirement, it's not like that's fool proof either. Look at my company. Bottom line is, lower hiring mins to avoid a PIC requirement is not a good idea.

kersplatt

I'm not saying lowering the mins it is a good idea, I think it is very likely if there is a pilot shortage. Everyone wants to think salaries will go up if there is a shortage. My point is that it won't, the airlines will find a way to get pilots cheap.

Not all majors require 1000 PIC. I don't think Delta does/did. I am also pretty sure Continental doesn't either.

ATP is a nice requirement but I don't think it improves safety. The Colgan crash had 2 ATP pilots or at least the FO met the requirements to have one. She was even hired close to ATP mins and had twice the hours the average pilot had when hired at Colgan during that time period.

Zapata

Anecdotal. I believe that in general, more experience = safer

Adlerdriver

Quote:

Originally Posted by kersplatt

I'm not saying lowering the mins it is a good idea, I think it is very likely if there is a pilot shortage. Everyone wants to think salaries will go up if there is a shortage. My point is that it won't, the airlines will find a way to get pilots cheap.

You really think there's going to be a shortage of 1000 hour PIC candidates for major airline jobs if/when they start hiring again? When has that ever happened? What an airline sets for its hiring mins and who it actually hires are not necessarily related. I'll bet if you looked at the new hires at Delta and Continental (if they don't have a PIC min), you'd see that many still had lots of PIC turbine time even if it wasn't required.

If you're saying regional carrier may lower their mins because all their Captains leave, I suppose that's possible. Aren't they already down at the 250 level for many? (I don't know - asking.) I'd say hiring mins will be under the microscope for a while thanks to BUF/Colgan, so lowering may not happen. I'd agree that mins are likely to go up before salaries go up.

ATP itself doesn't necessarily improve safety but it sets a min experience level for entry into the airline biz. Hopefully the hours gained in order to get an ATP were worthwhile and actually provided some valuable experience that does more than just look good on paper. An intangible is that obviously all experience is subjective and some flying hours do not equal others. Compare a 200 hour wonder with his peer hired 1 year earlier into the same RJ. If he flew his butt off, let’s say he's almost got 1000 more hours now in the right seat of an RJ than the new hire wonder. Big deal. Is he that much more experienced? He just spent a year flying from A to B with the autopilot on probably 80% of the time. Not that impressive in my book. That's why we have interviews and a subjective evaluation of a pilot's experience, but the minimums have to be set somewhere.

Vegaspilot

+1 Same here.

20sx

Why do you think regionals will start hiring in 2010? I've been figuring it won't start for another 3 1/2 years....about 6 months before the retirements start up again. Just stagnation for the most part until then. And then the whole cycle will start up again with the hiring.