Superpilot92

Big picture is that most of the major airlines worldwide are OLD. the pessimists look at the last 10 years as a precursor to what the future holds. The RJ explosion is over and for those that can see the "Big Picture" will be able to catch the front end of the wave here when things turn around. If you look at the Numbers and nothing more than its easy to see whats coming. The airlines have been in a constant state of defense after 9/11, at some point it will stabilize long enough to turn around.

I know for most that just look at right now its tough to be optimistic but you have to see the Forrest through the trees my friend

SkyHigh

I added up the numbers of all the retirements given from each airline in 2017 and I came up with only 1110 possible new hires that year. Assuming the majors don't shrink by then it still is not a very optimistic number.

Every year there are between 8500 and 10,000 new commercial pilots minted in the country. Over the last decade we have lost more major airline jobs then we have gained. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough from 9-11.

Every year that goes by there is a growing backlog of 8500 to 10,000 dreams in suspended animation. This all translates into a statistical long shot. Tens of thousands and possibly more than one hundred thousand pilots hoping to be one of the 1000 or so pilots to get hired each year during the "boom".

Everyone thinks that they will be one of the lucky 1000. Retired military pilots alone might be enough to fill the vacancies.

Skyhigh

Superpilot92

You assume EVERYONE will go or can make it till 65. Fact is most wont or dont want to fly till 65. Just like a pilot to expect the worst i suppose Also the current number of people getting commercial multi certificates now is much lower than in previous years and will likely keep going down.

The airlines will grow at some point, they've been cut so much that it leaves alot of room to grow. Combine that with expected aircraft travel increasing and expected to almost double in the coming years, the flying will come back and when it does, those with the foresight to get on at the front will be sitting nicely.

Alot of pilots have been beaten up in the past few years and forced this idea that it will only get worse but the potential is there for those that take the emotion out of it and look at the opportunities that will be available.

Risk vs Reward fellas, If your going when everyone else is doing the same you've already missed the boat. The key is to catch it before everyone else

Good luck to all

20sx

This an old retirement list. Add five years to it and pretty much forget about 2007 since all but 3 weeks of that year there were retirements.
Retirements during 2013 brings back most of the furloughs. 2014 from then on is a hiring bonanza!



Pilot retirements
Year AA UAL DAL CAL
2007 281 263 30 322
2008 402 234 60 246
2009 405 231 70 218
2010 363 201 91 210
2011 318 167 132 220
2012 312 228 159 217
2013 388 245 220 194
2014 478 237 268 210
2015 571 270 335 167
2016 628 331 475 190
2017 683 307 558 178
4829 2714 2398 2372

Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA
2007 271 126 89 129 200
2008 223 151 61 120 239
2009 279 131 60 95 166
2010 246 162 45 122 188
2011 290 153 52 128 187
2012 332 189 62 102 207
2013 334 185 65 X 207
2014 366 156 79 X 230
2015 358 183 98 X 278
2016 360 211 96 X 260
2017 321 213 97 X 295
3380 1860 804 2457

TOTALS BY YEAR
2007 1711 December 13,2007 age 65 went into affect.
2008 (2013) 1736
2009 (2014) 1655
2010 (2015) 1628
2011 (2016) 1647
2012 (2017) 1808
2013 (2018) 1838
2014 (2019) 2024
2015 (2020) 2260
2016 (2021) 2551
2017 (2022) 2652 Total by end of 2017 (2022) 19,799

TOTALS BY AIRLINE (over 10ish years)
AA 4829
UAL 2714
DAL 2398
CAL 2372
NWA 2457
US AIR 3380
SWA 696 (this is only for 5 years, probably about 1300 over 10 years)
FEDEX 1860
UPS 804

Number of pilots at regionals (off a little because of furloughed, from pilot central)
American eagle 2,725
ASA 1,710
Comair 1,476
Express Jet 2,725
Mesa 1,446
Republic 2,069
Skywest 2,809
Air Wisconsin 716
Colgan 438
Commutair 130
Compass 335
Gojets 240
Great Lakes 335
Gulf Stream 260
Horizon 721
Lynx 104
Mesaba 1,169
Piedmont 477
Pinnacle 1,303
PSA 538
TSA 446
Total 22,172


Furlough at major
United 874, eventually 1500
Alaska 60
American 1,979
Continental 147
USAir 227
Total 3,287, 1,934 without American

SkyHigh

Using the best projections and most optimistic view I still don't think future hiring can be considered a "boom" or "bonanza". One to two thousand new hires a year after a decade of furloughs and setbacks hardly makes a dent in the growing pile of unemployed or underemployed pilots that are out there.

The FAA only keeps track of pilots that still have a medical. There are easily tens of thousands of highly experienced pilots who are driving a trash truck right now who are of working age and are waiting for salvation.

Lets all just hope that there isn't a big oil crisis out there waiting to give us the knock out blow.

Skyhigh

iPilot

I think the big wrench in this whole argument is that the US airline network will not stay at or above its current capacity. This whole system has been set up over the last 10+ years towards the casual traveler market. However, that is unsustainable as the casual traveler is not going to be willing to pay what it takes to make the business profitable. Meanwhile, the high end traveler has moved to business jets.

The airlines will have to shrink to the point where they can make money on what few planes are left flying. The question is what will that percentage of our current capacity be? 20%? 50%?

Sure lots of airline guys are ancient and if the airlines stay their current size there will be huge amounts of hiring. But what if this whole thing goes the way AA did after the TWA merger? If the airlines shrink down 50% no matter how young we all are it will be near impossible to see that golden major job in any reasonable amount of time. Maybe in 20 years it will improve but how many of you are willing to sit on reserve or furloughed from your regional just for the chance that far down the road?

Lone Palm

What would Jimmy Buffett do?? And now, time for some positivity....

YouTube - Alan Jackson;Jimmy Buffett - It's Five O' Clock Somewhere

Beechlover

No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!

ToiletDuck

No just the second. The first bill of $780mil wasn't an economic stimulus pkg. That money will and is being repaid. The US gov't should actually make a return on their investment.

ToiletDuck

The reductions in flying we're seeing across the board could keep a boom from happening. Some will retire because they're 65 but that would just bring back the furloughs.

What are the numbers showing for the regionals? Those are trying to project retirements are they?