HalinTexas

There is no pilot shortage, there never was, and there never will be. Now, there might be a shortage willing to work for 1/2 of what a school teacher makes (that also gets summers and holidays off).

20sx

There will definitely be a shortage at the regional level. It won't be in 2012, since the age 65 law took place in december of 07'. Add in hiring back furloughes first, and movement should start in mid 2013 or so. There will be a ton of pilots retiring at the majors (19000 over ten years), that will have to create movement, even if one of the big carriers fall. These numbers don't even add in hiring at the fractionals, which will do better once we're out of the recession (has to happen eventually).

I'm not being optimistic, just realistic with real numbers.

As for working at the regional level, the regional work rules are slowly getting better. Anyone who wants to be a captain and making captain wages will be one after jumping in on the next 10 year wave (sucks to wait until 2013 for movement!). Most captain make at least 60K a year, which isn't bad compared to some other job sectors out there (I'm not arguing that it does suck in historical context of what pilots make and the responsibility that goes along with keeping the safety of a group of passengers).

contrail67

Most Legacy airlines entire senority lists will be gone (retired) in the next 25 years or so....get ready for it. Our little slow down is not forever.

jaded

Yeah and those minimums went all the way down to wet commercial. Unless the the FAA lowers CPL minimums, we can't get any lower. Also, every year student pilot certificates that are issued decreases. Eventually, once all the pilots on the street are recalled or decided they don't want anything to do with the industry then maybe we can see an increase in pay. That or there will be a bunch of 70 year old captains flying till 2017

Superpilot92

THIS ASSUMES ALL GO TO 65 WHICH IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ON THE NWA SIDE, WE LOSE PEOPLE EVERY MONTH EVEN THOUGH THEY CAN KEEP FLYING TO 65. MOST GUYS DONT WANT TO AND HAVE NO INTENTION TO FLY ANY LONGER THAN THEY HAVE TO. THE ONES THAT SAY THEY WILL GO PAST 60 USUALLY SAY THEYRE AIMING FOR 62-63. THE BELOW DOESNT INCLUDE FEDEX, UPS, AND A NUMBER OF OTHER AIRLINES THAT HAVE "OLDER" PILOT GROUPS. WE'LL SEE
RETIREMENTS PER YEAR AT AGE 65

CAL

2012 7
2013 183
2014 198
2015 186
2016 205
2017 210
2018 180
2019 194
2020 169
2021 188
2022 180
2023 187
2024 154
2025 156
2026 166
2027 167
2028 204
2029 154
2030 170
2031 119


Delta (nwa included)
2009 6
2010 13
2011 15
2012 24
2013 139
2014 238
2015 278
2016 330
2017 386
2018 469
2019 558
2020 645
2021 830
2022 870
2023 824
2024 811
2025 727
2026 626
2027 522
2028 491
2029 485
2030 509
2031 449
2032 347
2033 271
2034 182
2035 122
2036 103
2037 19

UAL Numbers
2012 - 263
2013 - 235
2014 - 231
2015 - 201
2016 - 167
2017 - 228
2018 - 246
2019 - 239
2020 - 271
2021 - 330
2022 - 305
2023 - 383
2024 - 356
2025 - 461
2026 - 508
2027 - 503
2028 - 574
2029 - 539
2030 - 561
2031 - 407


AA
2010 0
2011 0
2012 5
2013 138
2014 225
2015 274
2016 262
2017 286
2018 363
2019 458
2020 550
2021 609
2022 661
2023 714
2024 726
2025 737
2026 711
2027 588
2028 498
2029 476

FlyASA

If congress were to mandate ATP minimums for Regionals I would be really excited because then there would be no way for the pilot factories to crank out enough guys to fill all the holes. It would simply be too expensive to buy that much time. There would actually be a big shortage and management would be forced to pay us more to atract people back to the profession. Unfortunately the big airline lobbyists will come up with some way to allow even lower timed people into the cockpit. God forbid anyone pays a "professional pilot" a professional wage.

Dan64456

If Scarebus can figure out those damn pitot tubes, then their next plane will be completely pilotless - and all of you will be out of the job.

At least this is how the public sees it... They are used to pilots telling them "The plane practically flies itself".

dodgerk

That is some good research. Well done, great post.

Vampilot

Assuming this data is correct on the forced retire list by year per airline (the post above) and the airline's number of furloughs (I know, I know: Thou Shalt Never Assume) - take a look at how long, based on forced retirements, it would take to clear the furlough list for the respective airlines. If everything remains completely static (or, better yet, no further furloughs, another legacy going Ch. 7, etc.). About 2016 for most!

Here's another one and if anyone else has hard numbers, please offer them... I was on a UAL flight and talked to one of the heads of staffing for UAL who was running a team responsible for ramping up UAL hiring (this was about January of 2007 give or take a few months). They (UAL) were going through the furlough list completely a 2nd time making final offers to pilots to return. He said they were lucky to get 1 out 3 to even pick up the phone to talk. A few months later, they were hiring. Keep in mind how long some of these pilots were out of work by that point. If anyone has the furlough number (or a rough approximate) as of Jan 07, this can give a better estimate of just how many (few?) actually returned. More importantly, it may take less time to offset furloughs with forced retirements (that is, if my swag-math even remotely resembles reality). We can apply this to AA; how many AA furloughes are TWA guys stapled to the bottom of the seniority list from 2001-ish?

Great analysis? Not really, and probably full of holes but just something to think about...

Diver Driver

I believe that there will never be a pilot shortage. I agree with a poster above that there were a lack of willing applicants in 2007 to work for such low wages. We will only see a shortage if ATP minimums are required for part 121 work.

I think we will see a lot of the majors absorb some of those retirement numbers in the future and with most having a thousand or more pilots on the street, it will be a long time before the majors will need to hire off the street. When they do, regional pilots will be competing with military guys and others from part 135 and other defunct 121 carriers.

The days of getting on with a regional and upgrading in 2-3 years are over. We need to secure contracts with decent work rules and livable pay for FO's because in some cases it will be 5-10 years or more to upgrade. Regionals are becoming career destinations for some of us whether we like or not. The opportunities for advancement are no longer there.

I may sound like a pessimist, and maybe I am bitter to some degree, but this is real and we should not get our hopes up over some major airline retirement numbers without looking at the big picture.