2012 Boom in Hiring
12-14-2008, 05:58 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,258
I dunno, too good to be true, if I ever get to CAL, I'll probably be too old and crusty to appreciate it/enjoy it
I think the gov't and the airlines will do every thing they can to prevent a shortage, I bet we would see Newspaper/TV ads for "BECOME AN AN AIRLINE PILOT via the newest and greatest program ..............MPL" much like what you see for the Devry Technical school commercials.
Although if Age 65 never happened and the economy at least stayed where it was it would have been great for Pilots, however thats like saying if I won the lottery I would be rich............
So much changes in such little time, one thing for sure is 9/11 has taught these airlines how to run razor thin staffing models
and get away with it
I think the gov't and the airlines will do every thing they can to prevent a shortage, I bet we would see Newspaper/TV ads for "BECOME AN AN AIRLINE PILOT via the newest and greatest program ..............MPL" much like what you see for the Devry Technical school commercials.
Although if Age 65 never happened and the economy at least stayed where it was it would have been great for Pilots, however thats like saying if I won the lottery I would be rich............
So much changes in such little time, one thing for sure is 9/11 has taught these airlines how to run razor thin staffing models
and get away with it
12-14-2008, 08:10 PM
#52
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: Enjoying the view
Posts: 407
I think I'm going to have to agree with JetJock here ... I don't think there will ever be a true pilot shortage as long as regionals are willing to hire pilots right out of the academies with 300TT and 50ME ... We all know what ATP is and other schools just like it ... whip em up, build em up, poop em out, send em off
Exactly. How do the airlines expect to KEEP quality people in the future if they keep lowering the bar and the wages? I don't even have my first airline job yet, but I just want my investment and sacrifice to be worth something. MPL and cabotage will short-circuit our investment. It seems like so many business leaders focus too much on short term profit and not on long-term discipline and solid gain.
Last edited by proskuneho; 12-14-2008 at 08:21 PM.
12-14-2008, 08:18 PM
#53
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
Yes at the regional level there will almost always be a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for low wages. Regionals will always and have always depended upon the inexperienced pilot who needs to break into the industry in order to work his or her way up. He or she is inexperienced, mostly young or this is a second career, uneducated to the ways of the industry and willing to do almost anything for their own personal gain. I don’t fault the 300TT guy; after all mainline has a history of hiring private pilots and paying for their IR/CPL’s. The push at mainline will clean house at the regionals and the regionals will clean house at the FLT schools and then it will be over. The next question is, since it is/will be harder for students to find the money to train and the fact that aviation enrollments have been steadily dropping every year since the 90’s, will there be enough CPL’s to back-fill the large number of pilots that will be headed from the regionals to the majors? That is if the push is as big as most are predicting.
As for the push that is going to happen, don’t forget that foreign carriers (Cathay, Emirates, China, etc) are also going to see an increase in retirees, maybe not to the tone of 35% but an increase none the less……………. and the US regionals will be one of their strongest sources for pilots. Time will tell but I do see a huge push starting to happen around 2011 and continuing through 2017/18 with a long…………a very LONG period of stagnation afterwards.
As for the push that is going to happen, don’t forget that foreign carriers (Cathay, Emirates, China, etc) are also going to see an increase in retirees, maybe not to the tone of 35% but an increase none the less……………. and the US regionals will be one of their strongest sources for pilots. Time will tell but I do see a huge push starting to happen around 2011 and continuing through 2017/18 with a long…………a very LONG period of stagnation afterwards.
12-14-2008, 08:25 PM
#54
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: Enjoying the view
Posts: 407
As for the push that is going to happen, don’t forget that foreign carriers (Cathay, Emirates, China, etc) are also going to see an increase in retirees, maybe not to the tone of 35% but an increase none the less……………. and the US regionals will be one of their strongest sources for pilots.
12-14-2008, 08:33 PM
#55
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
I agree that there will be a demand for pilots. While it should be pretty easy to fill the FO jobs at the regionals with 300TT wonders with SJS, I suspect that Skyhigh is right that many more seasoned and experienced pilots will become disillusioned and quit because of pay and QOL.
12-14-2008, 08:36 PM
#56
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
It will happen..........how big? Only the aviation history books in 2020 will be able to tell us. Until then, try to keep your head above water and your chin up.
A very wise retired pilot once told me “whether it was bad or good, all you can do is look back on your career in aviation and shake your head because in the end it was all just “dumb luck.”” There's a lot of truth to that statement.
Good day and good luck.
A very wise retired pilot once told me “whether it was bad or good, all you can do is look back on your career in aviation and shake your head because in the end it was all just “dumb luck.”” There's a lot of truth to that statement.
Good day and good luck.
Last edited by JetJock16; 12-14-2008 at 08:49 PM.
12-14-2008, 09:12 PM
#57
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: Enjoying the view
Posts: 407
I ask you, why would a senior CA at DAL, AA, CAL, US, etc decide to hang them up when they’ve lost so much of their retirement and they are still making $160K-$225K/year while only working 9-14 days or so per month. I’ve come across so many mainline pilots that plan on flying right up until either 65 or they medical out because they either bid reserve/last call and only work once every other month or they have to suck it up to recoup their losses (waiting for that “to good to pass up” retirement package). Yes with QOL is not what it once was but after years/decades with their airline they can’t just walk away without the package.
Thanks. Good luck to you as well.
12-14-2008, 09:16 PM
#58
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 757/767
Posts: 890
I think the major airlines were going to lose 30-35% of their pilots over the next few years due to retirements and there was going to be a major shortage and crisis for the majors is why we saw the hiring spree at all the regionals last year. 2007 was great for people looking for their first jobs at the regional level with sign on bonuses being given out and the lowest minimums we have seen in years.
All this hiring was done because the majors were going to pull people from within the ranks of the regionals due to those increased retirements last year. But what happened then? The age 65 rule was passed, and all the newbies were pushed back basically 5 years.
This is the reason why we saw much reduced hiring at the start of this year, 1st quarter of 2008. And then, the gas prices hit a record followed by the economy crashing. This caused the furloughs and freeze on hiring by most airlines.
But my prediction and of most other people is that once that age 65 rule catches up in 2012, we surely will see another hiring spree at the regional level and also at the majors. Maybe it might not be like 2007, but I think it will be relatively the same, lowered minimums and a lot of bridge programs going through. Increased pay? I guess not.
In 2012, those 30-35% people who were to retire at the majors last year and then ended up getting a chance to serve for another 5 years, will have to start leaving as I doubt FAA will push up the retirement age to 70.
And as soon as that happens, and the majors start hiring again, the regionals will pick up as well.
I also doubt the majors will cut flights back to the extent that 30-35% of their pilots leave, and it wont affect their operation. The economy will improve, obviously not overnight but by 2010 we should see it back on the upward curve. So fingers crossed.. just my 2 cents!
All this hiring was done because the majors were going to pull people from within the ranks of the regionals due to those increased retirements last year. But what happened then? The age 65 rule was passed, and all the newbies were pushed back basically 5 years.
This is the reason why we saw much reduced hiring at the start of this year, 1st quarter of 2008. And then, the gas prices hit a record followed by the economy crashing. This caused the furloughs and freeze on hiring by most airlines.
But my prediction and of most other people is that once that age 65 rule catches up in 2012, we surely will see another hiring spree at the regional level and also at the majors. Maybe it might not be like 2007, but I think it will be relatively the same, lowered minimums and a lot of bridge programs going through. Increased pay? I guess not.
In 2012, those 30-35% people who were to retire at the majors last year and then ended up getting a chance to serve for another 5 years, will have to start leaving as I doubt FAA will push up the retirement age to 70.
And as soon as that happens, and the majors start hiring again, the regionals will pick up as well. I also doubt the majors will cut flights back to the extent that 30-35% of their pilots leave, and it wont affect their operation. The economy will improve, obviously not overnight but by 2010 we should see it back on the upward curve. So fingers crossed.. just my 2 cents!
"yea, but DAL is a relatively young group and they just merged with the old farts @ NWA and the flood gates of retirements will open from that side in 2012."
Sorry, wrong again. The total 2012 number from NWA is 15. On Dec. 8th we became the largest seniority list in the world @ 12,400+ and a grand total of 17 of us will be forced to retire in 2012.
Now, it does pick up over the next 10 years from the NWA guys and the following decades from the original DAL guys but your salvation (or mine for that matter) does not lie in 2012. Any significant hiring at any level of the next 5-10 years will have to come from a strong economic recovery and the resultant growth in block hours.
It is true though, what someone said in another post. A young guy who gets hired at American in 8-10 years at the start of the wave will have an enviable, meteoric, and phenomenal career. If your 15-20 years old, start racking up that experience and your connections at American. You could have a 35-40 year career the last decade (if not longer) of which you'd spend as #1 on the list.
Last edited by Deez340; 12-15-2008 at 07:12 AM.
12-14-2008, 09:22 PM
#59
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 757/767
Posts: 890
I didn't clarify which "seasoned" pilots I was talking about. I meant the ones that have been at the regionals for over a decade without much opportunity to get picked up by something bigger. Besides, when they finally have the chance to go to a major, they have to start over with pay and QOL.
Thanks. Good luck to you as well.
Thanks. Good luck to you as well.
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