2012 Boom in Hiring
07-16-2009, 06:13 AM
#111
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 737
Oh, I picked up the retirement numbers a couple of years ago, I think. I add to it whenever I see new numbers. I actually have retirements that go 25 years or so for American (wow!) and old Delta. If American gets their act together, they are the place to be in the future.
07-16-2009, 06:22 AM
#112
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
I agree, that's why they're my number two.
07-16-2009, 06:26 AM
#113
Underboob King
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Guppy Commander
Posts: 4,412
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
))))))))))))
07-16-2009, 06:44 AM
#115
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Position: in a seat
Posts: 82
Toiletduck, the regional numbers are there to show around how many regional pilots there are. Compare those numbers to the retirements and it can be seen that the regional pilots have a really good chance of going to the majors if they want.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Dondk...very true. Cloudy the future is (think Yoda). But optimistically, economy slightly picks up over the next 5 years. One carrier gets absorbed into another, which leads to some pilot job loss (in a merger, it's not like they totally get rid of the other carrier, delta-nwa, usair-america west, twa-american---ooops). What I'm saying is, even is one carrier goes down, I think with retirements it can be absorbed and still lead to decent movement. If the economy really picks up, then the airlines will grow and really lead to hiring. If... if.... they push better duty rest, then that will lead to temporary growth at the regional level.
After 9/11, it looked like the majors were never going to hire again. Very very bleak. It did start again. Next, high oil and bad economy. This too shall pass. It's the neverending cycle of highs and lows with airlines. I'm just hoping that the retirements will finally even out the highs and lows and give us, during good times great movement, and during bad times at least steady movement.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
07-16-2009, 07:07 AM
#116
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 182
And if you want to believe in the "attrition" theory, well dont waste your time. If push comes to shove, they will just start a "Cadet" program and do away with attrition problems. After all its a lot cheaper for them to pay from someone's training at cost then to increase pay and QOL.
We have never experienced a true pilot shortage or we may have seen a cadet program. I think that they would be weary of one simply for liability reasons. If anything happens and the FO has 300 hours and is sitting right seat in a 757, not going to sit well.
07-16-2009, 07:14 AM
#117
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
I agree with some of your points. I am not sure that every regional pilot will have that opportunity at a major of choice. Mergers don't help, nor do companies going belly up or gasp getting absorbed by a regional (okay, national). 5 years is long enough for at least a few more of these events to happen.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
Growth is needed not just attrition, I just don't see the growth in the near future. Even if the economy bounces back tomorrow it is 6 months before the airlines will react. 9/11 gave airline mgmt the ability to jack up the pax (nickle and dime them for everything), get max productivity from the labor through concessions or givebacks. From a labor point of view we screwed our future in the interest of saving our own hides at the time. What mechanism will compel mgmt to not run lean and nickel and dime everyone?
this industry is cyclic, I agree you can follow the cycle for the last 20 years (or more). Attrition is not going to be the reason for the cycle, I am not sure it will even be a factor. As you stated, relief to labor it where it has to start. Until then, upward movement will be brief short of a booming economy.
07-16-2009, 07:29 AM
#118
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Position: in a seat
Posts: 82
if/when this does turn around, I see the 90's coming back. That is where a 4 year degree was required and a Masters was preferred. Add some serious TT and PIC as well to even be near competitive. I don't see these companies opening up the flood gates and letting every ipod, backpack totting fool in. Competition will be stiff initially as there will be more applicants that jobs. Thus, a cadet program could be the preferred way. There is a lot to be said to start the training from the way THEY want it versus retraining everyone. Either way, if/when it happens, it is surely going to be interesting.
07-16-2009, 07:35 AM
#119
Moderator
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Tiki bar
Posts: 2,634
I recall vividly in the 80's a ad in a NY newspaper looking for pilots with a commercial license. The company was Eastern Airlines. In the NY area, recruiters actually came out to the local airports looking for people. I recall other "major" airlines at the time having similar ad's in the help wanted sections, albeit Eastern's was the lowest I ever saw.
07-16-2009, 07:47 AM
#120
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Joined APC: Sep 2005
Position: in a seat
Posts: 82
But in this down economy Lift is almost equal to Demand. Yes lift more than likely will fall another 10% or so but it can't go much further (industry wide we’re running at over 80% capacity). If UAL or someone else goes under their lift will have to be completely replace so I’m sure O will work out some purchase agreement between one of the other healthier carriers much like Wells Fargo and Wachovia. I’m not a fan of O but he will not let a company the size of UAL go under.
Lift may be 80%, but I find that hard to believe. Many are STILL furloughing, many are reducing lift (DAL, AMR). Lift is subjective because it is controlled by management. C'mon, you're on the DAL side, SKYW my be seeing 80% loads, but what is happening to the other DAL regionals? Their flying is being reduced. Those who control the airframes control the lift. They influence it, not the passengers. I use to see that with Airways back years ago... 3 flights going to BWI, the 1st 1/3 full, but the 2nd was 1/2 full. they cancel the 1st and move everyone to the 2nd to get a full flight. They would swap the airframe to somewhere else or keep it as a spare. Sure loads were up, but they really weren't. It was completely manipulated.
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