2012 Boom in Hiring
07-15-2009, 10:13 AM
#91
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 638
No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!
Majors, albeit not the sturdiest companies, at least dictate their own destiny. With a lift provider, you're only as solid as your current contract. Even then, if your major runs into trouble things can get ugly. See my above post for what I think about SkyWest and Republic's position right now.
I'd have to say if given the opportunity, I'd take starting fresh at a major than be a lifer at a regional. Even though the QOL is great, I'd sleep a little better at night not worrying about what the next CPA will bring.
07-15-2009, 10:14 AM
#92
Underboob King
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Guppy Commander
Posts: 4,412
heres the answer, for those that are skeptical and chicken Little's-stay where you are, dont make the move, and enjoy the constant undercutting and potential loss of flying contracts.
For those willing to take the risk, do it and do it as soon as you can because the potential upside on the majors side of the fence far out weighs any potential at the regionals. The 50 seat market is drying up and scope is becoming more and more of an issue at the majors, (dont expect much more scope relief). Anyone who gets on at a major carrier early when things turn around has the Potential for being at the top of that major airlines pilot list for the majority of their career. its always going to be a risk but to be honest its a HUGE risk to stay at a regional also.
for those that have quit flying, please stop trying to justify your choices by coming on here and stomping on those pilots that are sticking with it.
For those willing to take the risk, do it and do it as soon as you can because the potential upside on the majors side of the fence far out weighs any potential at the regionals. The 50 seat market is drying up and scope is becoming more and more of an issue at the majors, (dont expect much more scope relief). Anyone who gets on at a major carrier early when things turn around has the Potential for being at the top of that major airlines pilot list for the majority of their career. its always going to be a risk but to be honest its a HUGE risk to stay at a regional also.
for those that have quit flying, please stop trying to justify your choices by coming on here and stomping on those pilots that are sticking with it.
07-15-2009, 10:15 AM
#93
Moderator
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Tiki bar
Posts: 2,634
No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!
Be careful... If too many folks are your carrier do that, it becomes 'top heavy' on the pay scale. Look at Comair, Delta is stripping us down... cost is a primary factor among other things.
07-15-2009, 10:19 AM
#94
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: EMJ CA
Posts: 115
This an old retirement list. Add five years to it and pretty much forget about 2007 since all but 3 weeks of that year there were retirements.
Retirements during 2013 brings back most of the furloughs. 2014 from then on is a hiring bonanza!
Pilot retirements
Year AA UAL DAL CAL
2007 281 263 30 322
2008 402 234 60 246
2009 405 231 70 218
2010 363 201 91 210
2011 318 167 132 220
2012 312 228 159 217
2013 388 245 220 194
2014 478 237 268 210
2015 571 270 335 167
2016 628 331 475 190
2017 683 307 558 178
4829 2714 2398 2372
Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA
2007 271 126 89 129 200
2008 223 151 61 120 239
2009 279 131 60 95 166
2010 246 162 45 122 188
2011 290 153 52 128 187
2012 332 189 62 102 207
2013 334 185 65 X 207
2014 366 156 79 X 230
2015 358 183 98 X 278
2016 360 211 96 X 260
2017 321 213 97 X 295
3380 1860 804 2457
TOTALS BY YEAR
2007 1711 December 13,2007 age 65 went into affect.
2008 (2013) 1736
2009 (2014) 1655
2010 (2015) 1628
2011 (2016) 1647
2012 (2017) 1808
2013 (2018) 1838
2014 (2019) 2024
2015 (2020) 2260
2016 (2021) 2551
2017 (2022) 2652 Total by end of 2017 (2022) 19,799
TOTALS BY AIRLINE (over 10ish years)
AA 4829
UAL 2714
DAL 2398
CAL 2372
NWA 2457
US AIR 3380
SWA 696 (this is only for 5 years, probably about 1300 over 10 years)
FEDEX 1860
UPS 804
Number of pilots at regionals (off a little because of furloughed, from pilot central)
American eagle 2,725
ASA 1,710
Comair 1,476
Express Jet 2,725
Mesa 1,446
Republic 2,069
Skywest 2,809
Air Wisconsin 716
Colgan 438
Commutair 130
Compass 335
Gojets 240
Great Lakes 335
Gulf Stream 260
Horizon 721
Lynx 104
Mesaba 1,169
Piedmont 477
Pinnacle 1,303
PSA 538
TSA 446
Total 22,172
Furlough at major
United 874, eventually 1500
Alaska 60
American 1,979
Continental 147
USAir 227
Total 3,287, 1,934 without American
Retirements during 2013 brings back most of the furloughs. 2014 from then on is a hiring bonanza!
Pilot retirements
Year AA UAL DAL CAL
2007 281 263 30 322
2008 402 234 60 246
2009 405 231 70 218
2010 363 201 91 210
2011 318 167 132 220
2012 312 228 159 217
2013 388 245 220 194
2014 478 237 268 210
2015 571 270 335 167
2016 628 331 475 190
2017 683 307 558 178
4829 2714 2398 2372
Year USAIR FedEx UPS SWA NWA
2007 271 126 89 129 200
2008 223 151 61 120 239
2009 279 131 60 95 166
2010 246 162 45 122 188
2011 290 153 52 128 187
2012 332 189 62 102 207
2013 334 185 65 X 207
2014 366 156 79 X 230
2015 358 183 98 X 278
2016 360 211 96 X 260
2017 321 213 97 X 295
3380 1860 804 2457
TOTALS BY YEAR
2007 1711 December 13,2007 age 65 went into affect.
2008 (2013) 1736
2009 (2014) 1655
2010 (2015) 1628
2011 (2016) 1647
2012 (2017) 1808
2013 (2018) 1838
2014 (2019) 2024
2015 (2020) 2260
2016 (2021) 2551
2017 (2022) 2652 Total by end of 2017 (2022) 19,799
TOTALS BY AIRLINE (over 10ish years)
AA 4829
UAL 2714
DAL 2398
CAL 2372
NWA 2457
US AIR 3380
SWA 696 (this is only for 5 years, probably about 1300 over 10 years)
FEDEX 1860
UPS 804
Number of pilots at regionals (off a little because of furloughed, from pilot central)
American eagle 2,725
ASA 1,710
Comair 1,476
Express Jet 2,725
Mesa 1,446
Republic 2,069
Skywest 2,809
Air Wisconsin 716
Colgan 438
Commutair 130
Compass 335
Gojets 240
Great Lakes 335
Gulf Stream 260
Horizon 721
Lynx 104
Mesaba 1,169
Piedmont 477
Pinnacle 1,303
PSA 538
TSA 446
Total 22,172
Furlough at major
United 874, eventually 1500
Alaska 60
American 1,979
Continental 147
USAir 227
Total 3,287, 1,934 without American
07-15-2009, 10:20 AM
#95
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 747
Posts: 731
American looks promising when they actually start to hire, BUT, in general if the statistics are right, were talking about all these companies needing pilots. Might be a good chance for PAY to increase, competition is always good. Till then though no reason to get our hopes up, especially us EXPATS who might want to eventually make a move back to the USA.
07-15-2009, 10:25 AM
#96
Underboob King
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Guppy Commander
Posts: 4,412
No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!
True but you'll still be at a regional (assuming that's where you are). Look at the former ACA crowd, or Comair and now XJT. They had it all and wouldn't dream of leaving but in the end their major partner put down the hammer and now they're shrunk, shrinking, or gone all together.
Majors, albeit not the sturdiest companies, at least dictate their own destiny. With a lift provider, you're only as solid as your current contract. Even then, if your major runs into trouble things can get ugly. See my above post for what I think about SkyWest and Republic's position right now.
I'd have to say if given the opportunity, I'd take starting fresh at a major than be a lifer at a regional. Even though the QOL is great, I'd sleep a little better at night not worrying about what the next CPA will bring.
Majors, albeit not the sturdiest companies, at least dictate their own destiny. With a lift provider, you're only as solid as your current contract. Even then, if your major runs into trouble things can get ugly. See my above post for what I think about SkyWest and Republic's position right now.
I'd have to say if given the opportunity, I'd take starting fresh at a major than be a lifer at a regional. Even though the QOL is great, I'd sleep a little better at night not worrying about what the next CPA will bring.
Risk Vs Reward - Everyones perspective is different
07-15-2009, 12:35 PM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: right for a long, long time
Posts: 2,642
No plans to go to a legacy carrier. I'll be right at 6 figures when I'm a five year capt. By then, all you young guys will be running out in droves while I climb to nice comfy seniority number where my QOL will greatly benefit right where I'm at. How much money does a person need to be happy? I know what I need! If I cant live on 100,000 and change a year, save, invest, AND be happy, there's something wrong. Can't wait to see all you young guys blast outa where I'm at LOL!
That's great. So doctors, CEO's and others should be willing to "live on 100,000 and change".
"I know what I need." Great, but you are missing the point. You and the skills you provide are WORTH more than that. Until we remember that as a collective group we are destined to only get 50 cents on the dollar for our services.
Oh yeah, good luck making 100K plus at any RJ carrier at the 5 year mark. I worked at a 'high-paying' regional, knew all the tricks to maxing pay and I still only hit the low 80's in year 5.
The ROI for going to a major is at most 5 years, if you have more left in the tank it is probably going to be worth it to make the jump. (Even call it 8, still worth the jump.)
Its hard to add up all the work rule and retirement bennies that you don't get at your CRJ job, so that will knock down a few years of that ROI.
07-15-2009, 12:50 PM
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: G550 Captain
Posts: 1,206
By all indications the real potential for growth and expansion in the airline industry is in the international sector. That being said, I do not think there will be any growth in the airline industry in the next 2 years. On the contrary, in the short run, it looks like there will be further capacity reductions and a few legacy and LCC carriers phasing out of the picture all together by 2010 or 2011. This means more pilots out of jobs in 2009 through 2011.
In the long run, however, I agree with those who said there might be hope for those of us still in this business. If you have a passion for flying stick with it. If you don't have the love of flying, then you need to find something else that gets you motivated. Don't stay in this business if your number one goal is to get wealthy because this business will not get you there. Not the way things have turned out.
In the long run, however, I agree with those who said there might be hope for those of us still in this business. If you have a passion for flying stick with it. If you don't have the love of flying, then you need to find something else that gets you motivated. Don't stay in this business if your number one goal is to get wealthy because this business will not get you there. Not the way things have turned out.
07-15-2009, 02:12 PM
#99
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
I think the big wrench in this whole argument is that the US airline network will not stay at or above its current capacity. This whole system has been set up over the last 10+ years towards the casual traveler market. However, that is unsustainable as the casual traveler is not going to be willing to pay what it takes to make the business profitable. Meanwhile, the high end traveler has moved to business jets.
The airlines will have to shrink to the point where they can make money on what few planes are left flying. The question is what will that percentage of our current capacity be? 20%? 50%?
Sure lots of airline guys are ancient and if the airlines stay their current size there will be huge amounts of hiring. But what if this whole thing goes the way AA did after the TWA merger? If the airlines shrink down 50% no matter how young we all are it will be near impossible to see that golden major job in any reasonable amount of time. Maybe in 20 years it will improve but how many of you are willing to sit on reserve or furloughed from your regional just for the chance that far down the road?
The airlines will have to shrink to the point where they can make money on what few planes are left flying. The question is what will that percentage of our current capacity be? 20%? 50%?
Sure lots of airline guys are ancient and if the airlines stay their current size there will be huge amounts of hiring. But what if this whole thing goes the way AA did after the TWA merger? If the airlines shrink down 50% no matter how young we all are it will be near impossible to see that golden major job in any reasonable amount of time. Maybe in 20 years it will improve but how many of you are willing to sit on reserve or furloughed from your regional just for the chance that far down the road?
There will not be a reduction of 50%. Maybe another 10%-15%, add that to the reductions mainline has made over the last year or two and the total reductions should be around 20%-30%. Once they stabilize you'll see airlines start to dig in and strengthen their foundation so they can slowly grow. They’re will be another BK or two and a few consolidations but total capacity nationwide can’t slip much further.
07-15-2009, 02:12 PM
#100
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SkyWest Capt.
Posts: 2,963
heres the answer, for those that are skeptical and chicken Little's-stay where you are, dont make the move, and enjoy the constant undercutting and potential loss of flying contracts.
For those willing to take the risk, do it and do it as soon as you can because the potential upside on the majors side of the fence far out weighs any potential at the regionals. The 50 seat market is drying up and scope is becoming more and more of an issue at the majors, (dont expect much more scope relief). Anyone who gets on at a major carrier early when things turn around has the Potential for being at the top of that major airlines pilot list for the majority of their career. its always going to be a risk but to be honest its a HUGE risk to stay at a regional also.
for those that have quit flying, please stop trying to justify your choices by coming on here and stomping on those pilots that are sticking with it.
For those willing to take the risk, do it and do it as soon as you can because the potential upside on the majors side of the fence far out weighs any potential at the regionals. The 50 seat market is drying up and scope is becoming more and more of an issue at the majors, (dont expect much more scope relief). Anyone who gets on at a major carrier early when things turn around has the Potential for being at the top of that major airlines pilot list for the majority of their career. its always going to be a risk but to be honest its a HUGE risk to stay at a regional also.
for those that have quit flying, please stop trying to justify your choices by coming on here and stomping on those pilots that are sticking with it.
I've got solid contacts and many options.
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