stoki

As the subject line of the thread says, what regional or regionals, do you guys think is in the best position to get through these hard times? And why?

What regionals are in the worst position?

These are some hard times. Nobody is truely safe.

And just to think, only a couple of months ago it was all so sweet.. I knew it would end as fast as it started.

Hopefully we all make it through this without taking much damage.

Salukipilot4590

Nowhere is safe to be honest with you but if I had to guess these places wouldn't be as "safe":

MAG - For obvious reasons
XJT - Looking at furloughs due to branded issues
TSA - Jury is still out on lots of things


Other than that I'm uneducated and don't want to sound like a noob. Then again using the word noob makes me sound like one too. Oh well, you really can't win in this world!

fit29

Safest?

Republic (lots of contracts, lots of 70 seaters)
Piedmont (Turboprops, but that can all go to hell if USairways bites the dust)

MAG and XJT are not looking so good

BURflyer

Safest are the ones that are invested in 70+ seaters. Troubled? Xjet, TSA because we only fly 50 seats and our management continues to believe that there is a 50 seat market and that we will always be the lowest bidder... MESA because they will most likely lose the Delta deal which means Bankruptcy and will most likely lose the other contracts also.

Lazyb

None of them.

jedinein

Best: The one someone else is at.
Worst: The one you're at.

If you change regionals to get to the best, start at the top and reread.

SharkAir

It looks like XOJet is growing and hiring...

DANCRJ

Well, since nobody mention PNCL....... I hear some guys around here: "Oh...we're very safe, we have a contract for 129 aircraft with NW for the next 9 years"............I just start laughing at that point....."we are safe..." HAHAHAH you guys got to be kidding. I'm not saying PNCL will go under, but saying we are safe it's a very long shot. Let's just analize these points.

We do have a contract for 129 CRJ200 that can be converted to 76 seaters. NW hasn't even mentioned giving PNCL 900s. All their money is going to Mesaba and Compass. Why? because the obvious reason they're NW's babies. DL is going to Merge with NW. So what? then Delta is going to own Mesaba and Compass, same deal. We have 129 50 seaters that got to go NOW ! Do you think NW(DL) will be able to replace 129 CRJ for 129 CRJ900 overnight? I don't even see that happening in 2 years. If I was to guess, we'll eventually get 900s but a slow rate, meanwhile NW(DL) will find a way to cut us off some 50 seaters for a fleet reduction. In aviation a contract is more like "guideliness" , the big boys like NW(DL) will find a way around the contract or re-negotiate if they have to (BK doesn't sound to crazy now does it?). How about we strike, and then BOOM there you go...a reason for NW(DL) to start cutting us off. Is this a crazy thought? maybe, but first talk to some mesaba, or ex-mesaba old timers.......
"We already work with DL"......HAHAHA ..............WOW that means we are safe. We have only 16 900s in a new base, with a very disappointing performance. It is going to improve, but is not like DL is loving PNCL right now. I think we are going to get stuck with only 16 airplanes for a while in ATL. DL is cutting domestic and regional capacity overall. The only thing that could gives us more flying is MAG going under (which for the sake of those who work there I hope not) and we getting our hands there. Again I'm hopping I'm wrong. I really do. I also don't want to wish MAG going under for the sake of their people, mgmt can go to hell, but I think about friends there.... So please, PNCL people. Stop saying we are safe. That's very naive. Expect the worst and hope for the best

Rama04

Isn't the Pinnacle clause for NW to replace 2 CRJs with one 76 seat jet?

nicholasblonde

Yeah...then why did a JP Morgan stock analyst UPGRADE our stock the day the merger was announced? His reasons were that our contract basically has NWA by the balls and the only way they can reduce the total number of a/c is by order of a bankruptcy judge. So, unless NWA intentionally re-applied for bankruptcy (not sure if that would even get approved) to deflate their stock value prior to the DAL buyout, there is no way they can reduce our fleet size any further.

According to everything I've read, they cannot reduce the number of planes with 50+ seats at all...and it has to be a 1 for 1 trade.

Honestly, I feel safer at 9E than other places for one major reason--we're the cheapest on the 900 and 200 of anyone who flies for DAL or NWA. I'm not saying that's a good thing from a long-term perspective, but if it keeps us alive through the merger we'll have plenty of time to strike after all is said and done post-merger. Our feed contract with NWA is the hardest to nix out of all of the regionals flying for the combined company (hence the stock upgrade the day of the merger announcement).

In addition, Delta's current CEO is the guy who gave us the RJs when he was at NWA (back when Mesaba was NWA's red headed stepchild, btw)...and he's also the guy who out of nowhere gave us 16 RJ900s outta ATL instead of Skywest/ASA, who have operated out of that airport forever. The rumor is that Anderson got Phil his job b/c they were biz school friends. That might not be true at all, but Anderson's actions towards 9E (the company, not the pilots!) have been favorable since his NWA days.

Anyone who thinks Mesaba and Compass and Comair won't get raped after the merger just because they're "wholly owned" doesn't know crap about the aviation industry...those are exactly the companies they can bleed with the least consequences. Pinnacle is a private company with a good chunk of cash on hand, a near airtight feed contract, and a cheap workforce. From a pilot's perspective 9E has problems (contract), but from a bigger perspective (will this company exist in a year) I think 9E will be alright.