mattisawesome

All this doom and gloom about the aviation industry right now is based on another industry that has proven to be just as volatile...oil. I think the oil industry is headed for a serious downturn and it won't take much to send it falling.

andy171773

Eh, there's a big difference though.. The oil industry is controlled by OPEC. One fairly small membered CARTEL that sets the output of oil from each country. If they wanted to, they could put a squeeze on oil supply that would drive the price astronomically higher.

I hope you're right, but I think it's going to take a summer of DRASTICALLY reduced American driving (which has already started its decline according to AAA, some 11 billion fewer miles driven(sorry no source, heard it on the news)) amongst other unforeseen things.

Learflyer

The reason for the "flame" thing is that I kind of go into these forums with my guard up! I didn't want it to sound like "USMC, *** do you know about civvy flying?" Just being too polite I guess. Listen, I wish you all the best. I'm 36, and already been doing this for 20 yrs. Go out and enjoy the road that it takes to get to where you want to be.

WhizWheel

The oil industry is not solely controlled by OPEC and as a matter of fact OPEC's strength has been reduced a little (yes, notice I said a LITTLE) over the past few decades

robthree

Of course the new problem with being a career Regional Captain is the regional you choose may not last your whole career. ExpressJet, which has been the premier place to be, resembles a lame duck. Eagle, the paragon of stability, is getting cut loose from AMR, but still has AA's scope tying their hands. Without a separate operating cert, they can never fly any more 51+seat jets, even for other carriers. Air Wisconsin now hubs in PHL. I'm not sure if they even serve Wisconsin.

Moral of the story; 1) Be prepared to be a commuter your whole life, or uproot your family repeatedly. 2) Even if you make it to the top of the heap, you may well have to climb back up another heap. And another, And another. I flew with a CA who had been at seven airlines - an EA feeder, a Piedmont (pre-USAir) feeder, US Air, ACA, somebody else, US Air, again, then PSA. A Couple furloughs, a couple liquidations, and everytime you start your career all over, at the bottom again.

SkyHigh

Aviation has its cycles however with every peak things are not going back to where they were before the previous downturn. We still haven't recovered from 2001 yet and here we go downhill again. Pilot wages are still cut from 9-11. American Airlines still has pilots on furlough.

What we are experiencing is not just a simple downturn. There will always be pilots however the time when they were respected members of the upper middle class is almost over.

If a pilots sole and simple goal is merely to fly a plane then they are in luck.

Skyhigh

SkyHigh

My best time as a pilot was when I flew the Alaskan wilderness as a bush pilot and then later as a contract pilot for the State of Alaska Forestry. Huge fun. Wildly satisfying. Daily challenges and opportunities for lifetime memories.

The pay wasn't all that bad either. On any day I could be flying IFR in a complex twin and the next trip I could be in the 185 or Beaver landing off airport. During my time with the forest service several times I was able to fly across the entire western half of the north American continent, from Alaska to New Mexico at low level. Totally alone and left to my own devices. Few rules. No procedures manual. No line checks. Just fun.

SkyHigh

de727ups

"What we are experiencing is not just a simple downturn. There will always be pilots however the time when they were respected members of the upper middle class is almost over" Skyhigh, today.

"No one can really say what will happen...." Skyhigh 5/20/08

"i've always been in the wrong place, at the wrong time! All my peers in this business (well most) are at least Captains, and I have three friends at Southwest alone. It was very hard to watch them excel, as I sat idle for one reason or another."

It happens. There are no guarantees in the biz. Some reach relative success sooner and some it takes longer. Skyhigh quit the biz with 121 757 F/O experience and considered Southwest not worthy of his time.

Many would not make the same calls he did.....I know I wouldn't....

SkyHigh

I did not quit. I was laid off. I tried for a year to get another job but after 911 there were few options. I was on unemployment for a year. I had to move my pregnant wife and kids out of our Las Vegas house and into a two bedroom apartment where we lived without health insurance waiting for our baby to come.

The middle quote is not mine. I do not know anyone at SWA.

SWA does not fit my goals or lifestyle needs either. They do not have a base anywhere close to my home. Besides all that I still have yet to have met a SWA Captain and as I understand it you need a recommendation from three captains. Other companies did not meet my financial needs.

I understand that you would not have made the same choices. I have a wife and small children to think about. Perhaps if I were single I would have jumped back into another crummy regional and would have been sucked back in for another round of disappointments. Just about every company that I was interested in has either gone under, is about to furlough or is about to furlough and then go under. Had I stayed in I most likely would be facing another lay off and more financial hardship. Now however I am much older and it would be even more painful.

As far as I am concerned being laid off one for the best things that ever happened to me and my family. It forced me out at a time when I was still young enough to start over. Not everyone will make it. By my success standards most will never get there. No matter how long and hard you try there just is not enough room at the top. It is a fallacy to think that by continually throwing your hat into the ring that eventually you will make it to someplace good. That kind of thinking belongs in fairy tales and Disney movies.

SkyHigh

USMCFLYR

Sky -

YOU DID IT! Congrats. There were multiple examples of upbeat elements to this post. I'll even say that I am now slighty jealous of your experience since I have long had dreams of flying the Alaskan bush - or any bush for that matter. I probably sent out 25 resumes back in the late 80's to a variety of companies in Alaska /out so much as a letter of rejection. I eventually called one (an operator that use to fly Beech 1900s - but they were struggling I think after having a mishap and the investigation found some lax procedures). When he asked where I was from (Oklahoma) he laughed and told me I basically had no chance. He advised that I take all my savings, come to Alaska and get an efficiency apt near the airport, hang around/work at an FBO and network myself into a job. He said that if I had a job by the time my savings ran out then "welcome to Alaska flying", but if not - go home. I made one of those choices that you always talk about and went a different route. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't.
Well.....thanks for the one upbeat story. I see by your next post though that you slipped comfortably back into your old niche.

USMCFLYR