The Juice

Colgan is a small regional. Eagle is what, the 7th largest airline in the world? You can not expect them to be the same. Now if you compare Colgan to another small regional you will see that small regional does not have all the bells and wistles that Eagle does as well.

Colgan has always ran as a small company. With the PNCL buy-out they are starting to learn they will have to update how they do things in order to grow and become a big boy regional airline. Colgan never needed to do a bid vacancy report because all you would do is call either Mikey and Dot and ask.

As for Shamrock, I do not know what to say. I know you are upset but what can they do? When you were hired they probably told you that you could hold PVD in 3 months. Well, hiring has slowed and most likely stopped. CA's are not moving on right now so upgrades will slow down a bunch right now as well. How were they to see this back in August when you were hired? Should they displace someone senior in PVD for you? Should they give you PVD and have you work a reserve line and get paid 75 hours a month for hanging out?

These are tough times in aviation and they will be getting worse. Colgan has many problems but you have job security in what is a scary market. Keep flying and check back every few months on PVD.

Baronpilot

I read that gouge but I think they'll still be hiring. They have adds on climbto350 everyday and they still have to staff a few more Q400's when they are delivered. Also, you would expect to see some hiring in the Saab 340 with some of those pilots transitioning to the Q400.

skidmark

Historically PVD has always been a more senior base. Nice location for the New Englanders and decent lines. And a good seafood resturant across from the airport.

MudPupppy

What job security?
Don’t assume we are safe. Saab’s are no longer money makers with the oil where it is and our Pro-rated contracts. Saab leases start expiring later this year and more in 2009. Unless oil goes down, Saabs will be returned. And we know for a fact Beaches are gone.
Q’s might not be growing as much as they thought. Majors are trying to reduce capacity and are more concerned about mergers then Qs. CAL has an option to get more Qs, the date for the decision was April 1, 2008. Yet now they are saying they aren’t hiring for the Q. Leads me to believe either more Qs won’t be in the near future, or new Qs will cancel out the airplanes leaving. If there are no Qs coming in the near future?….. Uncle Phil even said, “If Colgan doesn’t become profitable by Q3 2008, drastic changes will be made” speaking to investors.
I sure hope I’m wrong, but always keep resumes and options ready. No one is safe…except for SWA of course...

IQuitEagle

True. However my comment was to point out that not all airlines are the same. As you said, what holds true for Colgan may/does not hold true for other airlines. My post was in response to someone who questioned whether it would be different at any other airline. I guess we can agree that the answer is yes.

IQuitEagle

Not sure what this means. But no I am not in the Texas system.

dingo222

All of PCL's flying is on a capacity purchase agreement. Colgan's is pro-rate and at risk meaning we eat all the cost of operating the flight including fuel, selling the tickets etc. We also get all the profit (for the most part). The United contract is the same. Cal in IAH is pro-rate. PCL hates pro-rate because of the associated risk of fuel price hikes etc. It's exactly like hedging fuel. Hedging fuel doesn't get you gas cheaper than the spot market; it just fixes the price over a specified amount of time. Expect to see our flying shift as our contracts become ammendable this year with US Airways and United. You can bet that PCL will go for a CPA with these carriers, or pull the flying away from them and farm it out somewhere else. The saabs are still very profitable. They just are not profitable under out current agreements.

Only 17 saabs are leased. The rest are owned either by colgan or PCL or PCL corp or whoever is screwing this pooch lately. 5 1900's are leased and 1 is owned. All 137 PCL crj's are leased. I'd also hedge a bet that when PCL rebids all of the EAS flying, they will have no intent on winning. Those planes would make more money under a new CPA with an existing or new carrier. Not sure what's going on with the q400 options. Apr 1 08 was the date, but CAL doesn't exercise those options; pcl does. Maybe the next batch of planes will go to another carrier. MAybe PCL will sell the options. MAybe the q400 options will start replacing saabs. Even with the options, we can't take delivery of those new planes till 2009 according to the deal in the 10K. With that being said, I'd say that we don't need more crews for the q400 in the near term. Read the 10K. It's probably 200 pages long, but it is very revealing. A lot of the myth's are put to rest now that colgan is public.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....dHRhY2g9T04%3d

So here is my peanuckle/culligan conspiracy theory:

PCL bids high on the eas flying and has no intention of winning it. THose saabs and crews are either 1. shifted to new flying at UAL or wherever, or 2. those crews will displaced to the q400. I'd also bet that if we don't get a new agreement with Airways soon, we will be shifting our flying away from them. I'd also expect the "yes" union vote this summer to have some sort of effect on cost assumptions for FY08/09 etc. Of course all of this subject to change 1000 times daily. My .02

dingo222

Colgan is different because we fly at risk. Eagle doesn't. Eagle gets its flying handed to them From AMR months in advance. Colgan has to sell the tickets in most of its markets, do the marketing etc. IF the outstation isn't preforming well, then colgan has to adjust the schedules, close the base, re-open it 100 times etc. Colgan doesn't just get a schedule from Airways 3 months in advance. Colgan has to determine if it is feasible for them to serve those markets for those 3 months. Old way of doing stuff and I'm sure it worked in the past with 15 planes and 200 pilots, but not now as we all see. I'm not defending it by any means, just trying to explain how it works, used to work etc. It's inefficient now with our size and I'd expect stuff to change for the better as the "old school" types slowly leave HEF. Colgan is one of the last "OLD" regionals left. OLD planes, OLD pay, OLD schedules, etc. Colgan is today what XJT was in 2000. A small regional with old planes that was bought and grown quickly for lack of a better explanation.

JoeyMeatballs

Colgan was always Colgan, "Continental Express" was created by CAL, blah blah, then CAL was short on cash so they sold us blah blah it goes on and on. The history of "Continental Express" is vastly different then that of Colgan

MudPupppy

Like I said, those 17 leases start expiring late 2008. And yes, the Saabs are unprofitable with current agreements. None the less then are losing money right now.

I'm curious though the 10 firm but cancelable Qs in 2009 mean 2009 fiscal year so we could get them late this year. I kept hearing september from management types. I'm sure the PNCL Q1 call will answer a lot of questions.