gbntpilot

The answer to the question depends on if you're talking about the mainline flying or regional. It could be two very different things. Personally, I don't think Memphis will close completely as a base. Rather, it will probably scale down with respect to the larger aircraft and become more of a regional hub. At the current levels, there just isn't enough originating passenger volume in Memphis to justify even many of the mainline flights that are there now. As Mesaba gets a good number of 900s operating there in the next year, NWA will probably scale down or completely eliminate DC-9 service out of MEM. But, if passenger volumes increase much above current levels across the industry, DAL/NWA will need to maintain another hub in the South for the regionals, being that Atlanta is already saturated. Both airlines operate a lot of CRJ-200s, which are weight critical in hot weather. In order to offer regional service in the South, NWA/DAL will need a base other than ATL where those planes can take off with lighter fuel loads.

Lighteningspeed

I mostly agree except that NWA has been known to reneg on their promises in the past. What may happen is that NWA will promise MN politicians that NWA will keep MSP as a hub to ge the merger approved then after the merger, NWA/DAL management will say they can no longer keep MSP open as a viable business option and start to scale down MSP as a hub and eventually close it down except for XJ operations.

DTW and ATL will most likely remain as a hub for NWA/DAL.

MEM will probably close as a NWA/DAL hub but remain open for regional flying for XJ. Unliekely to open another hub different than ATL.

SLC is a wild card. I hope it stays open as a hub. Gives another pilot base other than DTW or MEM is a good thing. Since it looks like NWA has a lot of planned routes for jet flying into the west, I think it will stay open.

I think there will be a major reorganization of regionals if the merger goes through. NWA/DAL will not need 6 or 7 different regionals. Regionals owned by NWA and DAL will be eventually operated under a single holding corporation. It is already happening for XJ and Compass. NWA has formed a Mesaba Compass Holding Corporation to operate Mesaba and Compass.

jdt30

Toiletduck,
It's painful for me to admit, but after reading your post I decided to look up Cal's financial statements concerning the golden share. I was wrong and you are correct.

rickair7777

Have you tried to lease gates at LAX lately? Good luck with that...

With traffic congestion rising at all large cities, it will be harder to consolidate all of your flying at a few large hubs. A really ideal hub needs several things...

- Location, for international launches and regional feed
- Lots of originating traffic (either a large city, or tourist destination)
- Plenty of available gates and arrival capacity.
- Good Wx (most airlines ignore this one)
- Minimal ATC issues.

PHX and LAS are almost perfect hubs...their only slight drawback is that it takes 50 minutes to get "feet wet" for trans-pacific work.

I don't think there will be too much hub consolidation with DAL/NWA other than in the midwest, because all that traffic just won't fit in ATL and LAX. SLC in the west has a lot going for it...it's only competitor might be SEA, but I doubt SEA has the capacity growth potential, and it's Wx probably isn't better than SLC.

Plus if DAL pulls out, someone else will move in to serve the ski country traffic. It would probably be UAL...since SKW owns the gates (in SLC and may outstations) and the airplanes it would just entail a quick trip to the paint shop for the SKW birds. I doubt DAL wants to hand all that to UAL on a silver platter.

ToiletDuck

I wasn't trying to be harsh or anything. I normally wouldn't have trusted what I read but it was in the financial section and they seem to be pretty on the ball. Those investors, not new columnist, know how to really pick things apart.

ToiletDuck

In the Wall Street Journal today they said that negotiations are very close to being finished. They are wanting approval from the pilot groups so they can avoid a USAir incident. If the pilot groups don't agree there is a large probability it wouldn't happen. They also said that inside sources had stated the no based would be closed. They specifically mentioned mem and ATL being close together but both still be profitable. They were saying it would make the merger easier to get the pilots approval if they guaranteed no base closing.

palgia841

Actually PHX and LAS would be good hubs for transpacific flights. Remember the whole earth-is-not-flat thing... so really flying from LAS to Tokio is the same distance as flying LAX-Tokio (30 miles or so difference).

In fact, SLC is a much better hub to serve Asia than LAX. Apart from the congestion in LAX, SLC is closer to ALL Asian destinations than LAX is.

Although SLC is over 2 hours away from "getting your feet wet", it ends up being closer to Hong Kong, Bejing, Bangkok, Tokio, Seul and Singapore than LAX. (remember Seul is KoreanAir's hub....codeshare partner in SkyTeam with Delta)

Bottom line: as far as range considerations for transpacific flights, LAX/SLC/LAS/PHX are all more or less equal (with SLC being the best).

Now of course, anyone who has flown out of SLC knows perfectly well that this location advantage of SLC is more than nullified by the sh!ttiest and most inefficient ATC service on the planet.... so maybe SLC is not that good of an idea in the end.

ToiletDuck

The article also mentioned CAL and AA merging. I think that about covers every possible angle for CAL and DAL.

Lighteningspeed

As AA already merged with AmericaWest, it is unlikely DOJ will approve another AA merger. Maybe years down the road, biut not anytime soon.

NWA/DAL merger will probably go through, as well as possibly UAL/CAL merger.

Justdoinmyjob

Hadn't heard about that one. I thought US Air merged with AWA and AA merged with TWA. Or are you confusing US Air's code (AAA) with American (AA?)