fosters

I personally think diesel engines and biodiesel B100 are in the future for us in the US. B100 is being locally produced with canola, sunflower, and soy oils such as at Seattle BioDiesel.

There are some downsides to B100. It can only be used safely down to 35F without gelling issues without using additives such as XC30. With XC30 B100 is stable down to -22F. That's pretty significant because it will allow the use of B100 in the majority of the US 365 days of the year. Obviously more research is needed in this area but initial results are very promising, much more than pure hydrogen power.

Since biodiesel is currently made with plant oils some are worried that growing plants for fuel is detrimental. I would agree in the long term. A group from UNH ran the numbers using 2004 data and found that we can produce B100 with Algae (read it; it's a good read) using just a small percentage of the land we currently farm on. Not only that, but the land used is out in the desert where it currently is not being utilized for anything. The fertilizer for growing the algae could come from human waste, reducing the amount of chemicals needed.

Yes, it will take electricity to make B100 from Algae. Think of all the "power" (in generic terms - includes electricity and fuel) that is used to pull oil out of the ground over in Kuwait etc., load it into boats, ship the boats across the pond, refine it, and distribute it.

The alternative is that we could have home grown algae biofuel around all major cities. Very little distribution necessary. Combine that with some wind and solar electricity and a nuke reactor or two and we are good to go.

mattisawesome

more nuke reactors...wind and solar aren't going to be long term solutions they don't produce enough energy. However I have heard of using water currents out in the gulf of mexico to push turbines which would be something similar to a wind farm. This may be a good alternative, but I think it is going to take some time for this to all work out. Natural gas is another option because the US has tons of natural gas I've been on about 50 gas wells and there are literally thousands of them in east texas and south texas. That I can personally testify to, also natural gas is clean. It sounds like the algae biodiesel may be a good option it is exciting to think may be we could stop worrying about what goes on in the middle east. It would be cool. whatever happens with this renewable resource push I think we will find a way in the next 10-20 years to seriously reduce our demand on oil. I think the airlines will benefit greatly from it. Jet fuel is just high grade kerosene and kerosene is very similar to diesel. You can make a jet fuel equivalent out of many of the things we have discussed. All very cool stuff.

ToiletDuck

I agree. We need more nukes. What we don't need the "Californian view" where they just want to tie the hands of any development unless it meets their crazy standards, which they don't, and is the reason they keep having power outages with rising energy demands yet can't produce any more.

nicholasblonde

Another issue is the fact that there are many sources currently unexplored that aren't profitable until oil is above $90/barrel. I.e. offshore Brazil, where a recent find by BNP Paribas is said to be one of the largest finds outside of Saudi Arabia...it's way deep, though, so they're only just now developing the field since they'll have to drill several thousands of feet down (from sea level) just to get it).

rickair7777

Hate to break it to you, but if you fly an RJ like you're profile says you'd better be super-gung-ho about digging up Canada and Alaska to get at that oil...the airline business cannot survive a signifanct shortfall in oil production in the near future. I'm not one of those folks who think that we will be out of oil in 18 months, but I know for a fact that we will need to aggressively exploit previously untouched reserves...fortunately, technology is making it practical to get at oil that was too hard to reach in the past.

Alternatives fuels can work great in the vast majority of applications, but turbine aircraft is not one of them...we need time to develop technologies that will allow airliners to use non-petroleum, and even more time to implement them. The capital costs of airliners are so high that companies need 15-20+ years to pay for them...we can't afford to just scrap all the planes we have in service and buy new ones.

Before anyone starts spouting off about hydrogen or solar ( ) powered airliners, do a serach for one of my previous threads on the technical problems associated with alternative fuels in aviation.

The Duke

Actually, M King Hubbert a Shell Oil Geologist in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. It did. He forecast that worldwide production would peak somewhere between 1995 and 2010. It's acutally quite basic, all oil reserve discoveries and associated production rates follow a bell curve. The initial curve is the discovery curve, the subsequent curve is the production curve. The top of this curve is called Hubbert's Peak. Virtually every single oil producing nation in the world has peaked in terms of oil production. That's a fact.

In the 1950's the US was the world's largest exporter of oil. Just 20 years later, we became the world's largest importer, hence the dramatic impact of the OPEC oil embargo on our country. The US reached its peak production @ 10.2 million barrels of oil produced per day. 10 years later there were 4x as many wells on the ground, yet we were producing just 6.8 million barrels of oil per day. That's a sure sign that oil had peaked domestically.

Today the only countries that have not peaked are Saudia Arabia (12 million/barrels per day), Iraq (production capacity somewhat unknown), and Kuwait(about 2.5 million/barrels per day). The oil that fuels the world is the light, sweet crude oil in liquid form. The fact that we're looking at shales and tar sands is very troubling. It is an indication that the oil-based economy's days are numbered. Three years ago the Saudis were producing roughly 15 million/barrels per day...today there are 3x as many drills in Suadia Arabia, yet their production is less than it was 3 yrs. ago. That would also be a sign that their production has peaked and that world production has, therefore, also peaked.

YouTube M King Hubbert and Matt Simmons, and Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash. It's a lot closer than most people realize.

The Duke

Also, w/ regard to nuclear energy, the world would have to build approximately 10,500 nuclear powerplants to effectively replace fossil fuels. That poses 2 major problems: 1) Where are we going to get all of the uranium? 2) Where are we going to put the waste?

cfii2007

1) Iran
2) Iran

mattisawesome

Rick,
Yes turbine aircraft can run on some biofuels. Like I was saying virgin america is doing a test flight using the existing GE cf 6 engines on a 747 with a 20% bio diesel/ 80% jet fuel mixture. Jet fuel is alot like kerosene which is close to diesel. GE says the CF 6 engines can run off of bio-diesel without any modifications. Will it work for all engines? That remains to be seen but one of the issues I did read, I think someone else may have posted it, that there is a problem with bio-fuel gelling when at cold temperatures which would be a problem at high altitudes, however the problem could be solved with some types of additives. I think these are promising things and that we will find a solution in our life times. I do not believe we have hit peak oil like someone else is saying, and the fact that some people think it is frightening that we will have to use tar sand, and oil sand is silly. These sources were not economically feasible when oil was $10-25/bbl but now that we are at $80-90/bbl they will be and I can tell you that the technology to get it is there. All that to say that we can also convert coal to gasoline/avgas/jetfuel and diesel which I have said before. Worrying about this is silly and investments are being made in alternative energy sources already. I think the market will come up with something in the next 10-20 years to ween us off of oil. We aren't going to go back to the dark ages like everyone seems to think on this thread

The Duke

I hope the market does indeed find something to replace fossil fuels, however, I think it's important to understand that the modern-day market place was built on fossil fuels. Fossil fuels have enhanced our lives considerably and have allowed for the world's population to skyrocket to 6.4 billion people. The "green revolution" of the 1950's, enabled us to grow more food than ever imagineable due to insecticides/pesticides that are derived from petroleum. The economies of the world and their growth resulted from the discovery of oil...almost everything we use each day are products of oil.

Where all of this comes into play for us as airline pilots: how much worse is our job stability going to get as a result of a peak in worldwide oil production and how much more will our pay come down as a result? Adjusted for inflation, pilots 20 years ago made 2x more than today. Just 7 yrs. ago, captains/first-officers @ United and Delta were making well over $300/$200 per hour respectively.

The bottom line: oil is still very cheap. $100/barrel is nothing. Divided into coffee cups, that's 14.9 cents per cup. Is there anything in the world that we consume that we pay so little for? Heck, most of us casually walk up to a Starbucks and throw down at least 2 bucks for a cup of coffee. Oil will probably continue its rise; in the meantime, our CEOs and management teams aren't really addressing the fundamental issue: how are they going to continue to run these airlines during the era of peak oil? Heck, United's management supposedly figured $50 buck/barrel for their bankruptcy exit strategy, how far off the mark were they? Now they're talking about consolidation, but I don't see how that will fundamentally make airlines more profitable.

Probably the only way oil prices will either stabilize or come back down to $80/barrel will be due to a severe economic recession, more likely a depression. Just like the high cost of oil, that would not be good for us pilots either, so we're stuck in a real catch-22 here.