Squawk_5543

Just curious what some of you in the industry think as far as how long this explosive hiring trend will last. What are the chances things will go back to the way they used to be....high mins, high competition?

JoeyMeatballs

well if another airplane hits a building..........................

if not.............
Majors/Nationals starting/continuing to hire I think the regionals will be so short staffed that majors will have to start doing more of their own flying, or they will have thousands of ****ed off passengers because of canceled flights due to lack of crews at the regional level

rickair7777

This industry is INHERENTLY cyclical, always remember that. What goes up WILL come down. However in this case I think we have the makings of a longer-than-normal upswing....

- Good economy.
- Most airlines have recently cut costs.
- Lot's of old guys retiring at several majors (age 65 will slow this but not completely).
- Long-term expected growth in passengers.
- Fewer entry-level pilots due to training costs and reduced pay expectations at the majors.

As Saab mentioned this could all change overnight due to acts of war or acts of God.

Onfinal

Provided air travel continues to grow past Y2000 levels:

One or two of the regional carriers will fail within the next two years. This will be the result of their inability to hire and retain crews and maintenance personnel. Essentially, it will be employees market and crews will be able to choose the carriers they want to work for. This bodes ill for those carriers that have failed to provide resonable wages and QOL to their employees over the last five years.

Expect consolidation of some of the carriers to reduce costs, and meet CPA obligations.

You heard it here first!

Onfinal

Sanchez

I agree 100% with rickair. It will take longer for sure on the upswing, but eventually the retirements will start to slow down, the expansions will peak. I give it about 10 years before seeing the back end of the curve even with age 65....but then again, this is aviation, and you never know.

aerospacepilot

Saab and rickair are right. Hiring is not going to slow down anytime this decade. In fact it is only going to pick up more in the next 1-2 years as the legacy carriers begin to hire (American, United, Northwest, and US Air). There are close to 60,000 pilots at major airlines. About 30,000 work at those four carriers that have yet to begin hiring. So airlines which employee half of the major airline pilots have yet to hire. It is only going to pick up in the near future.

Saab is right in that airplane into building ---> bad for hiring! Same thing with any other terrorist attack on US soil.

As for retirements, the number of pilots due to retire (due to age 60) is pretty constant through 2012. My numbers include American, United, Delta, Continental, US Air, Southwest, FedEx, and UPS (These airlines employee about 45,000 pilots, or 75% of the major airline pilots). It is pretty constant at about 1,500 pilots a year through 2012. Then it increases at about 100 pilots a year through 2017 when about 2,300 pilots are due to retire.

When will the next downturn be? I have no idea. It will probably not be anytime in the next 5 years. After that, it is anyones guess!
See my "Pilot Shortage" thread for some more information.
http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/sh...ad.php?t=12901

cbire880

I really wonder if another major terrorist attack would have the same effect. We have become accustom to the concept and passengers are prepared for the possibility of defending the aircraft. Short of an extended government induced shutdown, I think we might not see the same shock and disbelief if it happened again. I would throw out there that international flying would see the pain, but domestics would remain relatively untouched.

rickair7777

True for a hijacking, because PAX and crew are empowered to deal with any hijacking using any means. Most of us don't feel too helpless regarding hijackers today...most able-bodied types mentally rehearse their hijack response every time they fly.

However the coordinated destruction of multiple airliners using explosives would still be very bad, because that would play on our fear of things we cannot control. Even a failed attempt could be devastating to the industry if explosives got onboard aircraft and the entire system was grounded again. I sure hope that government and airline leaders have plans for rapidly restoring airline service following a major terrorist attack...another week on the ground would set us back ANOTHER 7 years.

RJones

I hope the hiring keeps up for another 5 years, thats when i'll be out of university and be able to get my ratings.

Thedude

5 years is a long time in the aviation biz. That would equate to about 20-25 yrs in other bizs. A full cycle trend runs about 6-8 yrs in aviation hiring.