Lighteningspeed

I agree with you except this is a moot issue because I asked a friend of mine over at DAL to track down this hiring rumor and he said according to DAL HR, DAL has no plans to hire in 2010. If anything DAL is still overstaffed and furlough in 2010 has not been ruled out.

As for getting hired outside the flow thru for XJ and Compass pilots, you are spot on. If DAL resumes hiring, you would have a better chance of getting on with DAL if you are not at XJ or Compass unless you are at the top of the seniority list.

PinnacleFO

Does anyone think this flow is going to last? Mesaba's is pretty good because its only 9 pilots but 20 pilots per month at compass - think about it. Delta has to train 20 pilots at mainline and then pay to train 20 pilots at compass - over and over again because delta owns compass so they are paying for training there too. Not trying to "flame" but just asking what people think.

Tinpusher007

My question is how the following scenario would play out at XJ. With the return of the entire Saab fleet soon coming, many current captains will be displaced to F/O, making 200 and 900 captain postions very senior as they already are. Most guys in those seats have indicated that they are not interested in the flow-through. One of the requirments for being able to flow is being a captain. So my question is...is it plausible that we cold get into a situation where we don't have anyone qualified to even take flow simply because they're not captains and the current ones prefer to stay at XJ? Of course this all assumes no replacement for the Saabs which is debatable but so far has not been announced or even hinted at.

Lighteningspeed

That's actually a very good question. I think I have to agree with you that DAL management is probably thinking ways of getting rid of it, especially if the furlough has not been ruled out in 2010. Some say that DAL pilots have a contract that will deter DAL management from cancelling the flowthru program. I don't know. It's been my experience, DAL legal team will always come up with a way if they want something.

I am not too concerned with this flowthru issue because it would only benefit the guys at the top of the seniority list at XJ who can flow in less than 10 months. For the rest of us at XJ it would not work because it would take at least 5 to 6 years for us to flowthru and DAL hiring is not going to last that long. At any case, I do not think DAL will be hiring in 2010, and my friend at DAL said barring a dramatic economic recovery and massive early retirements in 2010, furlough has not been ruled out by DAL in 2010. This being the case, you can be assured DAL management is looking into this very issue as we speak.

Lighteningspeed

Actually, last time I checked the flowthru bidding result, there are many guys at the seniority list between 150 to 300 who said they will flow, so I do not see there wil be any shortage of XJ pilots wanting to flowthru to DAL. Do you really think DAL will be hiring anytime soon? I am just asking because that is not what I am hearing from people I know over at DAL who can ask directly their HR about this rumor.

As for all Saabs being parked, I have to agree that in the next couple of years, all Saabs at XJ will be parked. I don't know about CRJ200s but DAL did announce they plan to park 100 CRJ200s from DCIs in 2010, so I don't know if XJ is also going to lose 17 CRJ200s in 2010.

Tinpusher007

Anytime soon as in 2010...no probably not. I think there is potential in 2011 and 2012 beyond. I do think if we get down to fleet of just 41 CR9's, the guys in the left seat would be the very most senior in the company who would not leave. I realize Im probably over-thinking things. As usual...time will tell.

Mesabah

This is my greatest fear here at mesaba, if we become a 41 crj fleet most of the captains will be lifers and we will go nowhere on the bottom of the list. That's why the second you can get a chance to get out of here, take it. If your main goal is to get on with DAL, worry about that later.

I've pretty much written DAL off at this point, I just hope I have enough left seat time to impress another airline such as ups, fedex, or southwest.

Lighteningspeed

I am with you there. I have also written off DAL. Way too many junior guys on top of you even if you get hired today. It would take too many years to upgrade at DAL that is if you don't get furloughed. Besides, there are too many aviation analysts who are smarter than we are in predicting airline business trends who predict shrinkage of pilot roster at major airlines like DAL via utilizing joint alliance concept.

gbntpilot

IMHO, there's no chance of it.

First of all, I'm 99% sure that announcement said they were going to reduce the fleets by 100 50-seaters, not specifically CRJ-200s. I can't find that announcemnt right now, so if someone has the time to look it up, please correct me if I'm wrong. Don't interchange the two terms. In this case, 50-seaters could (and probably will) include those 22 Freedom ERJs at CVG.

Secondly, I don't doubt that Delta would love to park a huge majority of the 200s, and only use the remaining ones for shorter flights to smaller stations. But, I don't think there's any possibility of Mesaba losing our 200s, at least in the reduction you're referring to, before 2011. The leases on those are too long for a return to be economically beneficial to Delta. They can only be reallocated, and I see no reason for them to move them to Comair (as the operating cost would go up, by comparison to Mesaba).

Also, with the current lease return timetable, we will have 86 planes (41 CRJ 900, 19 CRJ 200, and 26 SF-340) in December 2010. If we lose so many as to drop below 79 aircraft, the pilot contract becomes ammendable. Not to trivialize the possibility of an additional 70 furloughs, but we can only lose 7 more planes without some expensive consequences for Delta.
That would be a huge cost for Delta. They're not going to give us the opportunity to get anything more contractually than what we have now. For example, right now our FO payrates are based on the 2004 rate when our fleet was primarily turboprops. Current payrates for "jet" airlines are reasonably higher, especially considering our work rules (100% cancellation pay, 150% pay for open time, minimum day, etc.). Management's favorite term in any negotiation seems to be "industry average", which for this example, works against them.

gbntpilot

Yes and no. There was a call by a number of pilots to ALPA shortly after the merger to restart the flow line from the top of the list again. Evidently, some of the guys who have opted out the flow regretted it after the details of the new NWA/DAL pilot contract were made available. It's just a better contract now with higher pay rates. To my knowledge, this issue hasn't come up as a real discussion yet because we haven't been in a flow situation since the merger. As far as I know, ALPA heard the argument, but didn't put any time and resources into it because it simply doesn't matter right now. But, when it becomes relevant again, I would bet you'll not only see a discussion of restarting the flow from the top, but also an increase in the number of pilots taking the flow.