A question for all the low timers out there...
05-02-2007, 02:11 PM
#81
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: rj 700/900
Posts: 506
Clarification on oil pricing...
Oil is a commodity, ie there is no brand differentiation (for technical reasons certain oil sources are prefered, but others can and will be used if the best is too expensive).
Because it's a commodity, ANY significant supplier can affect the global price by releasing more to the market or tightening up. Texas or Alaska could send oil above $200/bbl if they WANTED to. Also shortage of refining cabaility can drive up the price of oil products, even if crude prices don't rise.
Despite what that commie throwback Chavez says in public, OPEC is NOT, under any circumstances, going to voluntarily force the price of crude much higher than it is now.
There is a very simple, non-debatable reason for this: Alternative fuel technology is available, but it's still economically and politically cheaper to continue using petroleum at current pricing levels. If prices rise high enough to FORCE the implementation of alternatives, OPEC will not EVER be able to reverse that process. When that genie gets out of the bottle, OPEC will never, ever be able to put it back, and they will have irrevocably damaged their best market (the west). In five years, half the automobiles in the west could be alternative or hybrid powered. OPEC is simply not going to kill the golden goose...whatever else they may be, they're not stupid.
When oil actually starts to run out for REAL, the price will start a gradual climb to infinity.
Oil is a commodity, ie there is no brand differentiation (for technical reasons certain oil sources are prefered, but others can and will be used if the best is too expensive).
Because it's a commodity, ANY significant supplier can affect the global price by releasing more to the market or tightening up. Texas or Alaska could send oil above $200/bbl if they WANTED to. Also shortage of refining cabaility can drive up the price of oil products, even if crude prices don't rise.
Despite what that commie throwback Chavez says in public, OPEC is NOT, under any circumstances, going to voluntarily force the price of crude much higher than it is now.
There is a very simple, non-debatable reason for this: Alternative fuel technology is available, but it's still economically and politically cheaper to continue using petroleum at current pricing levels. If prices rise high enough to FORCE the implementation of alternatives, OPEC will not EVER be able to reverse that process. When that genie gets out of the bottle, OPEC will never, ever be able to put it back, and they will have irrevocably damaged their best market (the west). In five years, half the automobiles in the west could be alternative or hybrid powered. OPEC is simply not going to kill the golden goose...whatever else they may be, they're not stupid.
When oil actually starts to run out for REAL, the price will start a gradual climb to infinity.
And well said concerning the current price of oil and its future.
05-02-2007, 03:12 PM
#82
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Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 614
First of all your frat parties really started to blow the last few years of school. We went to em all and took your chicks back in the good old college days. I Don’t need a double major in econ to understand it! SO Mr. Im to smart for yall frat boy, let me dumb it down for ya. OPEC controls the price by production. The courts will side with the management as long as they have willing pilots to do the job. Think on a large scale, a lack of pilot’s nation wide eventually increases the demand forcing ticket price's up reducing diminishing returns.
05-02-2007, 07:09 PM
#83
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 1,105
Its pretty sad that this forum is starting to turn into this. This place used to be a premier site among people in the know, but now it is just turning into a smear job amond mindless babble. You my friend offer nothing of importance and instead feel the need to smear someone because they may have been in a fraternity. What do you know about me? Absolutely nothing and your mindless attacks on a person that happened to be in a fraternity are ignorant and pathetic at best. I sometimes wonder lately if I am looking at FI or another lower quality site. Needless to say atleast the regional side of this forum has taken a turn for the worst. Now everyone please attack the frat boy, and dont forget skyhigh too, no one has made an attack on him in a while. Dont forget to call Go jet pilots scabs too, and TSA bottom feeders. In fact just bash everyone, thats all some of you do anyways.
Last edited by STILL GROUNDED; 05-02-2007 at 07:21 PM.
05-02-2007, 07:19 PM
#84
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 1,105
Mins are dropping at the regionals because nowadays, no one wants to spend tens of thousands of dollars flight training to land a $20k a year RJ first officer job.
Expect the mins to go to having just a Comm/Inst/ME and a pulse in another few months at pretty much every regional.
Expect the mins to go to having just a Comm/Inst/ME and a pulse in another few months at pretty much every regional.
If that were to pan out that's $20 1st/yr, $30 2nd/yr, 60 the 3rd. 100 K your first three years in an industry is not that shabby. It's not many places that you get the keys to the 30 million dollar equipment 3 years after sweeping the floor.
Student pilot certs are way down and for the reason you stated. Things are going to get real interesting. 3-5 years from now, maybe sooner, the companies we call majors may be feeling a similar crunch, some already are.
That's only going to be good for us as these companies have to compete for pilots, some will expand others will fall.
Chances are Bush will do something to screw this up for everyone before he gets out of office but who knows, one can wish!
05-02-2007, 07:39 PM
#85
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Posts: 389
The trend is for companies to get us to fly larger aircraft for less. Start flying the 170, then 175, then the 190 for all the same rates. Sounds like from that other article that Ellen posted that unless you're flying across the pond, domestic routes are going to be mostly "regional" in the future.
Basically majors need to get their scope back or at least not continue to let it grow. 60K is great but it's not too great for the guys flying the DC9's around trying to convince management that they need to get back to the old contact for flying around about the same amount of revenue. The going rate for an airbus captain is around 60-70 thousand at the places that are hiring them (virgin and skybus). Compass is replacing DC9's for even crappy "regional wages". We need to control supply of pilots with enlightening them with reality.
Basically majors need to get their scope back or at least not continue to let it grow. 60K is great but it's not too great for the guys flying the DC9's around trying to convince management that they need to get back to the old contact for flying around about the same amount of revenue. The going rate for an airbus captain is around 60-70 thousand at the places that are hiring them (virgin and skybus). Compass is replacing DC9's for even crappy "regional wages". We need to control supply of pilots with enlightening them with reality.
05-02-2007, 10:40 PM
#86
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Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 614
Actually none of my post in the past ever mentioned a fraternity in anything except when a few fools like you posted something based on my screen name. And apparently you seem to care as you have mentioned it a few times. If you got a problem.....
05-02-2007, 11:18 PM
#88
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 1,105
I completely agree with what you are saying, but the comment above is never going to happen.
Any more everyone is out for themselves. Everywhere I look I see it. It erks me that no one has a thought for people other then themselves. This is how skybus will lure people in, tell them they'll be top of the list, 65K is a start up companies wage. That's bull, if you have seen the Skybus forum you'll know how agrivated I am by that whole mess.
There should be some old Brannif or TWA pilots outside the Skybus recruitment center with a 50 cal on his Scooter Store three wheeler pickin these idiots off on the way in.
05-02-2007, 11:25 PM
#89
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Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 614
05-02-2007, 11:33 PM
#90
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Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: B737, On Top
Posts: 433
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