NY Times looks at pilot decline
04-27-2007, 07:16 AM
#42
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: rj 700/900
Posts: 506
"One more interesting piece on information. SkyHigh pointed out that 8,000 commercial pilots a year is a lot. Yes, you are right. But lets not forget not all of those want to become airline pilots. I think the best indication of airline pilots are ATP certificates.
In 2001, 7,070 new ATP certificates were issued.
In 2005, 4,750 new ATP certificates were issued.
The average age of an ATP holder went from 44.9 years old to 47.8 years old over the past 10 years.
There are 137,630 ATP Airplane pilots today. In the next 12 years, approximately half of those will be inelegible for airlines. That is approximately 70,000 that will not be flying Part 121 anymore, or about 6,000 per year!!"
No I would disagree with you. Most don’t get an ATP until upgrade, or unless they fly freight. Very few will get a commercial certificate to just enhance their skills. A commercial certificate allows you to be compensated for your time as a pilot, and most are going right to regional.
In your stats, did you account for the age 65 factor? Also Most of the ATP guys that will have to retire are working for major legacy carriers, and regional and military pilots will fill their slots. Most starting a career in aviation today will spend the majority of their time at a regional, or skybus, VA. and others making less than a taxi cab driver.
In 2001, 7,070 new ATP certificates were issued.
In 2005, 4,750 new ATP certificates were issued.
The average age of an ATP holder went from 44.9 years old to 47.8 years old over the past 10 years.
There are 137,630 ATP Airplane pilots today. In the next 12 years, approximately half of those will be inelegible for airlines. That is approximately 70,000 that will not be flying Part 121 anymore, or about 6,000 per year!!"
No I would disagree with you. Most don’t get an ATP until upgrade, or unless they fly freight. Very few will get a commercial certificate to just enhance their skills. A commercial certificate allows you to be compensated for your time as a pilot, and most are going right to regional.
In your stats, did you account for the age 65 factor? Also Most of the ATP guys that will have to retire are working for major legacy carriers, and regional and military pilots will fill their slots. Most starting a career in aviation today will spend the majority of their time at a regional, or skybus, VA. and others making less than a taxi cab driver.
Last edited by bla bla bla; 04-27-2007 at 07:24 AM.
04-27-2007, 07:20 AM
#43
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Position: 777, sofa
Posts: 1,183
04-27-2007, 07:27 AM
#44
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Pilot Jobs
yes but since that number is declining you cant argue that the trend of too many pilots is slowing, which is a good thing and may eventually help the industry just based on supply and demand. With the number of airlines, corporate outfits, and the new VLJ, the demand for (qualified) pilots is going to be high no doubt, which hopefully will in turn raise the pay and QQL.
We have a very efficient pilot training system. In months we could have thousands of more pilots.
In the future regionals will offer direct entry programs. Pilots will interview and be offered a position before they even have one hour of flight time. They will then have to complete an employer directed training program at a price tag of 100K or so to the prospective new hire of course. Mesa already has something similar.
No pilot shortage only a reduction in self respecting people who would do the job for nothing.
SkyHigh
04-27-2007, 07:40 AM
#46
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: rj 700/900
Posts: 506
I have always said that their will be more jobs in the future but it will be because no one will want them anymore.
We have a very efficient pilot training system. In months we could have thousands of more pilots.
In the future regionals will offer direct entry programs. Pilots will interview and be offered a position before they even have one hour of flight time. They will then have to complete an employer directed training program at a price tag of 100K or so to the prospective new hire of course. Mesa already has something similar.
No pilot shortage only a reduction in self respecting people who would do the job for nothing.
SkyHigh
We have a very efficient pilot training system. In months we could have thousands of more pilots.
In the future regionals will offer direct entry programs. Pilots will interview and be offered a position before they even have one hour of flight time. They will then have to complete an employer directed training program at a price tag of 100K or so to the prospective new hire of course. Mesa already has something similar.
No pilot shortage only a reduction in self respecting people who would do the job for nothing.
SkyHigh
Yep! There will never be a shortage unless we as professionals control the supply. All the market is doing is correcting for less experienced pilots at lower wages to outsource major flying.
04-27-2007, 07:48 AM
#47
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Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: Body at sea level; heart at 70,000+
Posts: 1,349
My daughter is an underwater archaeologist. This is the profession that performs such "neat
" tasks as surveying, photographing and documenting underwater ship wrecks and aircraft crashes before the salvage divers can move anything or recover bodies / wreckage. US Navy Salvage Dive teams have been commanded by women officers with this degree.
If they want to teach, a PHD is required.
Now some day when she goes treasure hunting (Raiders of the Lost Ark) and find that Spanish Galleon full of gold, I will buy my own G3 and let my son (Regional pilot) help me fly it.
04-27-2007, 07:51 AM
#48
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Archaeologist
Hotmama. You have a preconceived notion of archeology. It can be a rewarding career.
My daughter is an underwater archaeologist. This is the profession that performs such "neat " tasks as surveying, photographing and documenting underwater ship wrecks and aircraft crashes before the salvage divers can move anything or recover bodies / wreckage.
US Navy Salvage Dive teams have been commanded by women officers with this degree.
If they want to teach, a PHD is required.
Now some day when she goes treasure hunting (Raiders of the Lost Ark) and find that Spanish Galleon full of gold, I will buy my own G3 and let my son (Regional pilot) help me fly it.
My daughter is an underwater archaeologist. This is the profession that performs such "neat
" tasks as surveying, photographing and documenting underwater ship wrecks and aircraft crashes before the salvage divers can move anything or recover bodies / wreckage. US Navy Salvage Dive teams have been commanded by women officers with this degree.
If they want to teach, a PHD is required.
Now some day when she goes treasure hunting (Raiders of the Lost Ark) and find that Spanish Galleon full of gold, I will buy my own G3 and let my son (Regional pilot) help me fly it.
If I recall wasn't it you who first bagged on archaeology as a profession? You never mentioned what your aviation student was doing for a living.
SkyHigh
04-27-2007, 08:01 AM
#49
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Joined APC: Nov 2006
Position: Body at sea level; heart at 70,000+
Posts: 1,349
04-27-2007, 08:07 AM
#50
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 61
I don't think people just "want" to fly an RJ over a piston. A lot has to do with the economy. It is terrible in many places, and no one has the money to just "fly around." Speaking with a designated examiner the other day, he did 2 private rides since Jan 1. People just don't have the money to make flying a hobby.
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