When will hiring stop?
09-03-2017, 06:04 PM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 3,108
It's not just mainline taking back their flying, all workers across all industries, are taking back their jobs.
The Chinese see the writing on the wall, their entire economy is a fraud. A lot of that labor that went overseas is coming back over the next decade, as robots can do 90% of their jobs for less.
With upcoming geopolitical issues, and economic malaise. I can easily see international travel cut by 75% or more over the next two decades.
The Chinese see the writing on the wall, their entire economy is a fraud. A lot of that labor that went overseas is coming back over the next decade, as robots can do 90% of their jobs for less.
With upcoming geopolitical issues, and economic malaise. I can easily see international travel cut by 75% or more over the next two decades.
09-03-2017, 08:21 PM
#24
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
I agree. Suppose a black swan event resulted in furloughs such that even 2 or 3 years after the event, flying still was down a 'permanent' 10%. By that time, retirements would have caught up. All furloughees would have been recalled and hiring would have resumed at the anticipated high pace.
09-09-2017, 06:23 AM
#25
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,090
The biggest thing the PRC has going for it is long term lack of interest in the western pacific on the part of the US public. But if they "lash out", they'll wake the sleeping bear and they know it. They didn't forget how WWII played out in the pacific.
09-09-2017, 06:29 AM
#26
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,090
Really any large-scale terror op against the US homeland would require significant support from a state-sponsor...and the two states in question are VERY reluctant to get caught with their hand in that cookie jar. They know SECDEF quite well, he's an experienced and peerless regime-changer...
09-09-2017, 01:58 PM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,091
This is my take. We've popped the cherry so to speak with 9/11 events, and would recover much sooner if it happened again. We'd skip over the shock, grief, and paralysis pretty quickly and go straight to shock-and-awe. The military response would be faster, more dramatic, and more effective than last time. Last time we had to figure out who did it, and where to find them. These days we already know...
Really any large-scale terror op against the US homeland would require significant support from a state-sponsor...and the two states in question are VERY reluctant to get caught with their hand in that cookie jar. They know SECDEF quite well, he's an experienced and peerless regime-changer...
Really any large-scale terror op against the US homeland would require significant support from a state-sponsor...and the two states in question are VERY reluctant to get caught with their hand in that cookie jar. They know SECDEF quite well, he's an experienced and peerless regime-changer...
Also, correct me if I am wrong because I don't know a lot on the subject. But aren't pilot salaries a smaller percentage of the cost then it was back in the 80s and 90s? Meaning if there is another event and airlines have to cut costs, perhaps less pilots would be furloughed.
09-09-2017, 04:06 PM
#28
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
This right here, the U.S. is much more apt to deal with such events. And as much as some would say otherwise, it is much harder for someone to carry out a mass casualty event in the U.S. then it was pre-2001. The new laws put in place after the event did that.
Also, correct me if I am wrong because I don't know a lot on the subject. But aren't pilot salaries a smaller percentage of the cost then it was back in the 80s and 90s? Meaning if there is another event and airlines have to cut costs, perhaps less pilots would be furloughed.
Also, correct me if I am wrong because I don't know a lot on the subject. But aren't pilot salaries a smaller percentage of the cost then it was back in the 80s and 90s? Meaning if there is another event and airlines have to cut costs, perhaps less pilots would be furloughed.
09-10-2017, 03:26 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 447
Probably has something to do with the massive growth of regional airlines, the lost decade, and a seniority system that has very experienced pilots starting at the bottom when their airline fails or goes out of business.
09-13-2017, 05:37 PM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,197
Behind the Airlines' Increasing Labor Costs - Market Realist
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