Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
02-27-2017, 05:45 PM
#44
On Reserve
Joined APC: Oct 2016
Posts: 24
To me, the pilot shortage happens when several airplanes at several companies cannot fly because there are no pilots to fly them.
Yes, first year pay has increased (through not years 2-12) and yes, signing and retention bonuses have appeared, but these have both served to increase the supply of pilots, preventing us from having a true shortage.
When will we see regional airplanes parked because there are simply no pilots to fly them?
Yes, first year pay has increased (through not years 2-12) and yes, signing and retention bonuses have appeared, but these have both served to increase the supply of pilots, preventing us from having a true shortage.
When will we see regional airplanes parked because there are simply no pilots to fly them?
08-21-2017, 07:48 PM
#45
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 50
Increased demand vs. supply drives cost higher however that does not imply a shortage in and of itself.
All this industry is experiencing is a prolonged increase in demand.
There is no lack of supply, no shortage and no scarcity. Wages are rising at the regional level to match the demand-supply curve. Majors are not having to respond with more money. ATP and student pilot issuances are up.
Once again pilots bought the shortage Kool-Aid the industry loves to dish out to keep wages suppressed. Gives them a shot at lower hiring standards with the government through a fake crisis. Flight schools also love it for the love of $$$. The media loves it cause the impending pilot shortage sensationalist headlines make them $$$.
Pilots can't decide if there is a shortage of them or if they are about to be wiped out by drones. When pilots experience a demand for their services which approximates normal demand in a typical profession it's as though they catch the vapors or something.
A nurse takes a new job, gets a signing bonus and a paid move...that's normal. Nobody blinks. A pilot gets a doggie biscuit thrown their way and the end of the world must be near. We as a group are our own worst enemies more often than not. We ineptly propagate BS by not analyzing deep enough, BS which not infrequentely is being used consciously by some to remove money from our pockets. Believe it.
I'm encouraged that ALPA and some pilots mostly headed this one off at the pass (this time) by nipping it in the bud. That's why regional wages are going up instead of FAA requirements going down.
But attention shortage Kool-Aid drinkers....it's still not too late to help the industry use congress to screw up the demand-supply curve you are for once enjoying!
Just keep saying that the pilot shortage is real. They appreciate your soundbites and WILL use it at every opportunity they can so as to fix this "problem" of having to pay you more.
I promise!
08-22-2017, 10:46 AM
#47
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,091
Keep in mind that lower pay for small airplanes means more money available for big airplanes.
08-22-2017, 03:07 PM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2016
Posts: 846
Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
The truth is that there is no union that can alter the economic environment in which their members work in. A union can only take advantage of positive economic environment or shield their members in less than ideal economics. The competent ones increase total compensation in good economic times, as in now. Or soften the blow in recessions/bankruptcies. And the less competent ones settle for paltry raises in good times or rollover in weak economic circumstances and let their members take most of the brunt. Regional airlines generally live in less than an ideal economic environment, thus the relatively low wage.
08-22-2017, 05:15 PM
#49
Ich bin Pilot von Beruf
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: CRJ Kapitän
Posts: 615
I believe the (good) regional airlines are smart and will continue to raise pay as necessary to fill seats with competent pilots. The large amount of movement with retirements and (fingers crossed) growth at the majors should help keep QOL decent across the board (reserve will be a 4-5 month affair not 1-2 years; all airlines will be hiring allowing candidates to not need to commute, etc). This increase in salary should serve to both recruit kids into the aviation schools out of high school and have private or prospective pilots in other careers think about making the leap to become an airline pilot. A lot easier to invest a large amount in education and training or leave one's day job when first year earnings potential is $60k with an expectation of earning $100k+ in 3-4 years... a very reasonable salary for the amount of responsibility a regional pilot has.
My hope is that new hire and retention bonuses will be rolled into hourly pay. There was much talk of this at Endeavor and Trans States however I haven't read much lately. Is this still an effort on behalf of the unions or companies? It seems some companies (e.g. Republic, Trans States) are making very insincere statements on earnings potential, rolling things like per diem, health/life insurance into the first year pay rates.
My hope is that new hire and retention bonuses will be rolled into hourly pay. There was much talk of this at Endeavor and Trans States however I haven't read much lately. Is this still an effort on behalf of the unions or companies? It seems some companies (e.g. Republic, Trans States) are making very insincere statements on earnings potential, rolling things like per diem, health/life insurance into the first year pay rates.
08-22-2017, 06:32 PM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Posts: 3,790
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