theclaw

This. I'd like to see what the yearly ATP issuance shows from the FAA. If there's a downtrend, things can get very interesting in the next couple years.

BoilerUP

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/

Table 16.

Only goes back to 2011, so IMO data is skewed somewhat by the impacts of the runup of fuel costs, Age 65, and the Great Recession.

theclaw

157,000 ATPs in the pool with a slow but steady rise each year?

Andytcsi

Just remember for 2016 there is most likely a bump in numbers for some people that took the written and were getting the rating prior to the Aug 1, 2016 timeout of their 2014 written test. Basically the last push of the ATP-CPT rule change avoiders.

CBreezy

I found this on the FAA website. This is the number of estimated active pilots that hold ATP broken down by age.

20-24- 778
25-29- 5,707
30-34- 12,229
35-39- 16,349
40-44- 18,167
45-49- 22,506
50-54- 25,585
55-59- 24,749
60-64- 17,921
65-69- 9,847

So, we all know that an ATP is required right now to get hired at a regional airline. We know that the data will always skew light on the front end due to the time building requirement in order to get to an ATP, however, it appears that ATP issuance don't pick up until most pilots are in their 30s.

I think the biggest shock off a number is the end of the scale. in less than 10 years, 53,000 pilots will be ineligible to work at a 121 carrier (I say ineligible because the data I found tracks people into their 80s). To compare, that's more ATPs than exist right now between 21-39.

The data I found also reports Commercial ratings. If a pilot has a ATP and a commercial, they are only reported under ATP. So, here is the data for that:

16-19- 293
20-24- 10,058
25-29- 17,703
30-34- 12,011
35-39- 8,997
40-65- 7,000-8000 per group

There is a large group of pilots between 20-34 with commercial pilot certificates. We could assume that all of them will be converted to airline jobs, but seeing that between 7000-8000 over 65 years never make the jump, I think it's safe to assume at least some percent will remain commercial pilots over ATPs. Let's be conservative and say 6000 never convert. Even with the people with wet commercials, in the ages of 21-39, that only adds 25,000 pilots to the existing pool. This number also doesn't take into account commercial pilots who are training here and returning to their country of origin. I would be interested in seeing that number.

I did find an interesting statistic in there about original issuance. In 2013, ATP issuance spiked at 8,346. In 2014 and 2015, they dropped each year to 7,749 then 6,544. In 2016, however, there were 9,500 issued. I wonder if that corresponds with the increase in major activity picking more military from active service since most of them don't convert until they are hired. I also wonder why it dropped year over year until last year when certificates issued spiked to the highest level ever.

CBreezy

I forgot about that. It should be interesting to see what happens in 2017 then for sure.

CBreezy

I think table 17 is a better table for visualization.

Tester130

You have two choke points at the bottom. The 1500 TT rule for guys coming from the civilian side, and the military producing less pilots. Military pilot retention is going down, so you can expect the military to try and increase its retention bonuses or try other methods to keep their pilots retained.
There are some guys starting second careers or coming back to aviation. There might be a surge of these guys when the pay bumps up and they can afford to make the switch/return, but then it drops back down.
Then you have a vacuum at the top with the majors looking to keep their planes in the air. Eventually, the regionals are going to feel the squeeze in the middle. The tighter that squeeze, the more pay and other benefits will go up at a regional.
The pilot shortage is there and is being felt. It will get worse as the regionals continue to try to fill their classes. You are already seeing more partnerships with flight schools as an attempt to reach farther back into the training pipeline to line pilots up to fill class seats. AA's WOs looking to the military rotory pilots as another source of pilots is a second example of the regionals working hard to keeps seats filled.

RemoveB4Flight

Interesting numbers.
I am curious what they consider "active".
Does active mean that are staying current? Or ones that have jobs in aviation?
I wonder how many of those who have an ATP are able and holding a 1st class medical? How many have had medical conditions that restrict them to a 3rd class medical but yet they are forever still a holder of an ATP.

CBreezy

I'm pretty sure, at least one of the last things I read, was that active meant a valid 1st or 2nd class medical.