Whatever Happened To That Pilot Shortage?
02-26-2017, 08:39 PM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,342
The other thing to keep in mind is that aviation (like other industries) is a pyramid. There are a lot of bad jobs, a good amount of OK jobs, some good jobs, and a few great jobs. While the definition of a "bad" pilot job has improved in the last 5 years, no one gets in this industry with dreams of retiring in an E-175 making 130K. It will still be a rat race but at least those at the very bottom of the pyramid won't need to be on food stamps. Let's hope that never happens again.
02-27-2017, 12:39 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2016
Posts: 443
Those that are unwilling or unable to realize the pilot shortage are either living under a rock or just in serious denial.
That stack of "10,000" applications include...
- People who aren't even qualified. Some folks have their applications in from the time they start lessons.
- People who have already been hired by a major. Maybe they got their second choice or they got their first choice and just never removed their applications from the others.
- People who have had apps in but in the meantime have lost a medical.
- Some folks who have had apps in for years and are reaching an age they they may not want to start over at the bottom to finish off the last couple years of their career.
- Those applying to the majors and have apps in to at least 3-4 places.
The regionals are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Most applicants barely meet the ATP requirements with many needing to count the sim time to reach the required hours. These bonuses and increase in pay will bring some people back into the industry who left previously but it won't be enough.
The majors have also relaxed their requirements slightly. About a year or so ago they all wanted 1,000 PIC to apply. Now that requirement is gone with more and more getting hired from the right seat of the regionals.
This shortage will continue to get worse as major airline retirements peaks in a couple years.
That stack of "10,000" applications include...
- People who aren't even qualified. Some folks have their applications in from the time they start lessons.
- People who have already been hired by a major. Maybe they got their second choice or they got their first choice and just never removed their applications from the others.
- People who have had apps in but in the meantime have lost a medical.
- Some folks who have had apps in for years and are reaching an age they they may not want to start over at the bottom to finish off the last couple years of their career.
- Those applying to the majors and have apps in to at least 3-4 places.
The regionals are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Most applicants barely meet the ATP requirements with many needing to count the sim time to reach the required hours. These bonuses and increase in pay will bring some people back into the industry who left previously but it won't be enough.
The majors have also relaxed their requirements slightly. About a year or so ago they all wanted 1,000 PIC to apply. Now that requirement is gone with more and more getting hired from the right seat of the regionals.
This shortage will continue to get worse as major airline retirements peaks in a couple years.
02-27-2017, 03:46 AM
#24
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 67
I would like to see data on new hires at the regional level. I would bet it could be as high as 50% are lateral moves, meaning there aren't enough new pilots.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.
02-27-2017, 03:50 AM
#25
Roll’n Thunder
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Position: Pilot
Posts: 3,841
I would like to see data on new hires at the regional level. I would bet it could be as high as 50% are lateral moves, meaning there aren't enough new pilots.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.
Just examining pure numbers, lets say that 3000 pilots are leaving regionals, upward and onward, then how many new ATPs are being issued to replace them. That would be a better measure of the future.
02-27-2017, 06:13 AM
#28
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,291
Serious question. I have always said we will never have a true pilot shortage. Demand for pilots will increase and decrease throughout time. But even as demand increases, the supply of airline pilot candidates seems to always increase as well. Yes regionals have gotten more relaxed with their hiring standards. But they all seem to be putting people into classes. Lots of pilots who had gotten out of the game are coming back. Lots of people are joining programs like ATP to get their ratings quick. There seems to be trouble at Air Wisconsin and Expressjet, who combined employee around 5,000 pilots. Each legacy airline still has 10,000+ resumes on their desk.
Who still believes we will someday have a pilot shortage? What evidence are you basing that opinion on? I'm not trying to antagonize. I just want to see other people's point of view that is different from mine.
Who still believes we will someday have a pilot shortage? What evidence are you basing that opinion on? I'm not trying to antagonize. I just want to see other people's point of view that is different from mine.
02-27-2017, 06:18 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,533
Shortage didn't go away. Some airlines are still having a hard time filling classes even with some of the highest starting pay in the industry. The highest retirement numbers haven't even started yet.
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