TransWorld

Adding up the mandatory retirements at Delta, for a pilot hired on in 2021, in 12 years half of the pilots above him/her will retire. Similar numbers for United. American has slightly higher retirement rates. Southwest has slightly lower retirement rates (but not that much).

I realize growth and unforeseen downturns (another 9/11) can happen. Assuming everything is a wash, new hire FO with a major making CA in 12 +/- years is amazingly good.

This continues on for quite a few years, enough to clear several full hiring sets of every Regional pilot. At some point it may slow down, but certainly not for quite a while. If one tries to project pilots getting hired 25 years from now, nobody's crystal ball is any good.

One thing to consider in the out years, new hires from the regionals recently and truly off the street have been older. Some got backed up in the pipeline. Others got out of the cockpit after 9/11 and are just now getting back in. I have seen a median age of 40-45 this year, with some as old as 61. These numbers are not reflected in the current retirement numbers. They will create a second wave of retirements.

Otterbox

Piedmont doesn't currently flow double the # as PSA does. I believe they just increased from 5 to 6.

Slick111

If Piedmont flows 6 per month from a total of 612 pilots, that's 12% of their pilots flowing every year!

PSA flows 5 per month from a total pilot of 1360 pilots. That's 4% of their pilots flowing every year.

So you're right, Piedmont's flow is not double the rate of PSA's flow. IT'S TRIPLE THE RATE of PSA's flow!

Based solely on these numbers, a new hire at Piedmont will flow in 8.3 years while a new hire at PSA will flow in 25 years! (Again, I said "based solely on these numbers").

Systemized

No sh%t, but think about the ratios proportionate to pilot size. 1400 vs 500.

5:1400 vs 5:500 or something close to that

Piedmont is 10%, PSA is 4%, Envoy is greater than 10%, lowering to 10% over time. You seriously can't find a better example of pattern bargaining. Piedmont basically copied and pasted Envoy's agreement. PSA needs to do the same.

FlyyGuyy

Don't we all wish? Dino from Dayton seems to be vehemently opposed to making anything better for us.

BizJet

I've said this earlier. That 25 years agrees with what I was told by BB during my interview. He said it's roughly 8 years with the CURRENT attrition. Minus that attrition he said you'll retire here before you flow at roughly 25 years.

Thedude86

If we were on par with Envoy and Piedmont we'd be flowing around 12-16 per month. That's pretty significant. The company should realize if we were flowing that much it'd be offset by more pilots staying. It might only help keep 2-3 captains here per month since it wont keep them from going to United or Delta...but I GUARANTEE you a great majority of the FOs would stay if they knew they'd be getting to mainline a lot faster. FO attrition is around 20 a month. I bet half if not more would stay if the flow was 12-14 a month. Flow could go up another 8 numbers and I bet it would retain more than 10.

It's a little too late now, but a bigger flow number would also help with the crazy amount of FOs bypassing upgrade. If FOs were moving up the list faster to being a captain line holder the company might not even have to raise captain pay to entice them to upgrade....but....once again....the company is late to the party. It's going to take a significant pay raise now. Maybe a mixture of pay and flow.

BizJet

Yeah but I also have a nagging feeling that in order to get that CA pay raise and/or flow they will try to make us vote away SAP or heavily restrict it.

Either way their screwed here in a few months. We won't, hopefully, vote SAP away and they will be clawing for CAs.

MaCrOs

I know vast majority of new hires came here because of SAP so if they touch that attrition will increase for sure.

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Thedude86

SAP is definitely a huge recruiting tool. If they take that away they're going to have raise pay even more to get people in the doors.

I wouldn't be surprised if the company tries to negotiate it away, but they're going to have to come up with a flow and/or pay increase regardless.