PSA help

Don't you think you are being a little dramatic? Half of the last award was FOs that previously bypassed. There is no way that it will be that bad. There are many, many FOs hired in the last 6 months with the required time that would love to upgrade.

As soon as FOs get 20-30 upgrades after them, they will take the upgrade.

The smart ones are taking the first upgrade anyways. No one knows when things might slow down, or when the next "retention bonus" will be announced. People will be kicking themselves when the next CA retention bonus is announced for current captains only.

Pilot Sharp

Yea I personally don't buy the whole "sky is falling" drama. AA wants us to have all the 700 for cost effectiveness stand point. If PSA can't keep up AA will clean house here, which would be good thing. PSA management knows and fears AA cleaning house. The Union and management have been very quiet lately. Especially after the whole flow increase debacle and letter of no confidence in DF. I think there is going to be more $$$ thrown at us here shortly.

Keep the popcorn ready!

Thedude86

i don't think the sky is falling, because I think American or PSA will fix the problem before it becomes an issue.

I might be a little dramatic, but I would place bets on PSA not filling all the captain positions in 6 weeks or less unless of course they raise pay. yes, there have been some senior FOs awarded upgrade. BUT, there have also been some EXTREMELY junior FOs been awarded upgrade as well. the last award had seniority #911. the award before that had #830. this trend didn't just start yesterday. this has been going on for the last several months. FOs may be getting closer to holding a line as a captain, but the problem is that time isn't moving as fast as the upgrades are. the company is upgrading 25 a month, but you're not getting 25 spots closer to a line each month. the captain attrition is only about 10 per month. so new upgrades are only getting 10 spots closer to a line each month. i believe each class going forward will have some senior FOs, but there will still be some extremely junior FOs also. The saving grace will depend on how many previous 121 FOs are willing to sit reserve for the next 3-5 years for barely a pay raise and less days off a month.

I highly doubt if the company raises pay and/or bonuses for captains that it will only be for current captains. 75-85% of current captains are close enough to flowing they're not going to spirit or jetblue anyway even if captain pay stays the same. I'm still an FO and i wouldn't even go to spirit or jetblue. id take a 20-30k pay cut to go to spirit even if i don't upgrade here. the company isn't goin to raise pay to keep the other 15-25% here. that's like 100 pilots, if that. that's nothing in the grand scheme of things. if they don't want people leaving to united or delta they're going to have the raise the pay 100k a year which i highly doubt will happen.

going forward the only reason for the company to raise captain pay will be to entice more senior FOs to upgrade and make it worth sitting reserve. the more FOs that bypass the more likely captain pay will go up for all Captains. if anything it would be more likely bonuses will go up for new upgrades and stay the same for current captains, because like i said...most of the current captains are holding out for one of the big 3, ups, or fedex anyway. this is basically the same concept as new hires getting bigger bonuses than current FOs.

Thedude86

I will also add that a lot commuting FOs are probably holding out for a line or at least a build up in CLT. Besides DCA every other base is a 2 leg commute. Even though DCA is somewhat commutable I've heard of pilots running out of their hotel allowance in just 2 stays there. So if captain attrition overall is about 10 a month....Captain attrition just in CLT might only be 3-5 a month making the 25 upgrades a month insignificant.

fiftyone

Please forgive my Georgia cyphering skills here...but I am completely missing something.

I have now read two references to 3-5 years on reserve for FOs that upgrade to Captain. The July awards indicate the most junior, R1 FO in CLT as 7 months, 16 days. The most junior, R1 CA has 2 years, 11 months, 5 days.

If the average new hire with no previous 121 time spends 3 months in training and approximately 13-14 months on the line to accrue 1000 hours, that is a minimum of 1 year, 4 months of seniority. That should only leave 1 year, 7 months to move through the stack back to R1.

PSA help

There is no way that anyone is going to be on reserve for 3-5 years after upgrading. Even the DECs won't be on reserve nearly that long.

Reserve as an FO right now is something like 3 months or less. Reserve time for upgrading captains is somewhere around 3-6 months.

The DECs will be on reserve about 2 years, but that is the price that you pay when you are a "street captain" and everyone knows that.

People hires less than 3 years ago are already R1 captains and our outside attrition is really picking up. The time on reserve is dropping, not increasing.

Thedude86

Sorry if my post was misleading. I was not referring to reserve as an FO. FO reserve is relatively short and I'm sure it will remain that way.

I was referring to the junior FOs upgrading right now. The senior FOs upgrading will not be on reserve very long....maybe just a few months. But these junior guys/gals that have been awarded upgrade recently will be on captain reserve for a very long time. It's almost the same scenario that happened to the DECs. They came in as a captain, but they were the bottom pilots on the seniority list so almost everyone upgrading now is senior to them and keeping them from getting closer to holding a line as a captain.

I stand by my statement that the most junior FOs upgrading now will be on reserve 3-5 years. I was hired 2.5 years ago and going by TallFlyers chart he puts out each month...I can only hold a build up in just DAY and I'm one of the senior FOs. In 3-4 months I might be able to hold a round 1 line in DAY or CVG. By that time I'll have been here just shy of 3 years and the DECs are another 200 pilots below me on the seniority list. They're looking at a MINUMUM of another year on reserve and that's if all the people upgrading now remain junior to them. Going forward there are going to be some senior FOs in each class making that time longer for the DECs. I would not be surprised at all if the DECs are on reserve close to another 2 years. That's the same thing that's going to happen to the junior FOs upgrading now. They may not be DECs, but their situation is very similar. #911 out of 1270 pilots was just awarded upgrade. Hopefully he lives in base or is willing to move. I myself am not moving for a regional.

Thedude86

Disclaimer...

I screenshot TallFlyers chart each month and I was actually looking at the chart for May by accident. Going by the July chart you could only shave off 1 or 2 months of my Math.

PSA help

Reserve times are dropping. We are adding more airplanes, and attrition is continuing. I know many people that are starting classes at legacy/major airlines in Aug and Sept.

What has been true for the last few months will not necessarily be the same moving forward.

AAG is anxious to get the 700s here. As the fleet decreases at Envoy, it becomes less and less cost effective. They will do what it takes to get them here.

Those additional 32 CRJ700s alone should increase the number of R1 captain lines by over 150. That will completely negate any "math" that you have used in determining the time spent on reserve.

Thedude86

I don't think reserve times for captains are dropping just yet. I've been keeping track the last few months since it effects my decision to stop bypassing. Maybe you're using other information. I'm using TallFlyer's charts he puts out each month. I have screenshots of each month from April to July. Although negligible, captain reserve has actually gotten longer in every base except DCA. It hasn't really increased by much, so you could argue that it's basically staying steady.

I will agree though, that reserve times will EVENTUALLY drop. Right now captain attrition is only about 10 each month, but we are upgrading 25 a month. I think attrition will start to pick up since the majors haven't begun their huge hiring waves yet, but I Don't think that will happen until later this year or possibly into early 2018.

I will also agree the remaining 700s will increase the total lines, but with the total attrition company wide...even if the company doubles pay for everyone, I don't see how we're going to get every 700 that's yet to come over. Right now we're just keeping up with taking 1 a month. At that rate it'll be almost 3 years until we get the last 700. But you never know, American might have big plans we haven't even thought of yet. I would guess if we do receive all of the 700s that probably means we're going to be rollin in the dough and/or have a seniority number at mainline.

The next year will be very interesting to say the least.