2992set

good read

filler

MantisToboggan

So a number you just pulled out of your ...hat... makes more sense than the straight math of our flow? There is no buffer for this. It's a hard number. 6 a month, unless we grow. Looks like we won't be growing. That means 8-9 years. That's what makes sense, because it is the only thing you are guaranteed.

This is a good lesson for all the new guys around here. It's easy to try to hope for/plan on the best, but it's unrealistic. This place never changes. Piedmont was a crappy airline operating old turboprops not long ago. We've had two years of somewhat good times. I say somewhat, because it's only been good in a very limited number of ways. AKA projected flow looked good for guys hired in about a 1.5 year block. That's good. Our quality of life has always been atrocious. We just dealt with the bad in order to get to the good.

Now, that time of fast projected flow time has long passed. The truth is that if you are hired here today, you will not flow quickly. You will stagnate for quite some time at this place. Eventually your number will get called, but do not kid yourself that it will be in five years. Or seven. It will be a minimum of eight years unless something changes. If you want to bet that it'll change, be my guest. But don't be surprised when it doesn't happen.

My point is, Piedmont is a poorly run little airline. That is the one constant here. We had a good run simply because AA decide to give us beat up old jets that kids with SJS could stomach flying. We grew a good bit, and the guys hired at the right time are riding that wave as far as it'll take them. Unless you were hired in 2015 to early 2016, you missed that wave. We are still the same little airline, run in the same manner it always has been. Any changes made by PDT management have been negligible in the grand scheme. We had our fun only because of a decision AA made.

Pilsung

So, if Piedmont's size remains the same going forward but mandatory retirements at AA grow steadily to over 900 per year within 5 years as anticipated, you don't think the flow will increase at the WO at all? All of AA's future hiring to offset retirements will be OTS? I mean this question sincerely- not at all challenging your view...

Newstick189

Last I checked AA has literally THOUSANDS of qualified applicants on file. Why would they chip away from their regional feed when they can chip away from others?

Acquiring talent for AA is less than a problem going forward than training said talent.

67Creek

Because everyone knows that highly qualified, competitive candidates aren't going to stick around for several years to flow if another legacy is calling. If the flow times are long, and they don't hire their own before the flow, they're going to end up with a flow that mostly consists of candidates that weren't qualified enough or motivated enough to get hired elsewhere.

Otterbox

Word is that AAG approached the company and union earlier this year about increasing flow and there was no interest from either...

PDT flight ops department doesn’t want to release more captains/instructors and further hamper its ability to staff flying... this is the same reason that the training department has remained intentionally under staffed and sim periods remain “blocked” during the weeks (Blocked means they sit empty due to a lack of instructor to run the sim...while 200 pilots sit and wait to get through training).

The Union leadership doesn’t want to negotiate increased flow because it fears the requirement of a pilot upgrading to Captain in order to flow and the elimination of return rights for PDT pilots that wash out AA training, which offers job security for the older union members.

There may be a time when AAG increases pressure on the Company and Union and gets an increased flow but when that happens will be anyone’s guess, especially if AAG can get further pilot utilization increases from the mainline pilot group, increase flows, again, at PSA and Envoy more easily, or the enconomy tanks (AAG is in a poor financial position compared to many other companies... retirements may just cover and negate furlough requirements during the next recession).

flysooner9

Think is those thousands of applications are also on file at United, Delta, FedEx, Swa and UPS. Once all of them are hiring close to 1,000 a year, that stack is going to dwindle pretty quick.

Newstick189

Keep dreaming.

I can tell you right now the math works out to be 3 pilots for each desireable job (Jetblue or better) based on retirements and 1% growth. I’ve ran the numbers, getting a job at a major is anything but a sure deal.

Yes, relatively speaking it’s a great time to be hired but there is still a 300% surplus of qualified candidates over the next 5 years.

Also, to say the Union wouldn’t be interested in a flow increase is ludacris. I can say that for a fact.

flysooner9

What about the next 10?

MantisToboggan

I could 100% get behind a CA requirement to flow. If you sit for years and years as an FO and can't pass upgrade, should you be behind the controls of a much larger jet? I would argue not. You certainly wouldn't get hired if you didn't have the flow.

But that's neither here nor there. I don't think that's a thing the union has faced