flybywp

The CFI well isn't drying up and that won't be happening anytime soon. The article just talks about a forecast of a shortage across the entire industry, which is occurring although on a smaller scale than what many think. Look at the regionals offering high first year pay along with career progression... none of them are having any issue filling classes 3-6 months out. Heck, I don't think Endeavor is even interviewing candidates at this time they're so full.

Varsity is right, the effects of the lost decade are ending and many people are beginning to pursue flying as a career once again. The endless "pilot shortage" articles that have been pushed into the media for the last 5-10 years is finally paying off as people are leaving other careers to come to the airlines. ERAU had an all time high record enrollment this year. The company I worked at had so many students wanting to sign up they were turning them away because they didn't have enough aircraft to support the student demand. There aren't enough DPEs to keep up with the growing number of students that some students are waiting weeks to months for checkrides or flying across the country to find a DPE. Interest in aviation is coming back, thanks to a solid economy and tales of guaranteed jobs.

I don't believe regionals will have any issues continuing to attract new hires, especially wholly owneds. But I believe the big issues will come from the increasing attrition as senior pilots and instructors move on to the majors.

Varsity

I'm glad someone else sees what I see.

I think there will be issues with green on green at the regionals (2000hr CA's flying with 1000hr FO's) but outside that, the planes will stay full.

havick206

That’s already happening now.

MantisToboggan

The highest number of ATP knowledge exams administered was in 2016 at 8,000. In 2017 that number came in at around 3,300.

When you look at commercial multi-engine certificates, you see a similar trend. The number given out has remained pretty steady over the past ten years. However, the percentage of those certificates that have been given to US citizens has gone down significantly. In 2007, 2/3 of commercial multi-engine certificates went to US citizens. In 2016, more than half went to non citizens.

I think this argument is had on a daily basis on this website, and isn't specific to Piedmont/isn't going to change anyones mind/junior mans for all of you for bringing it up

aviatorckf

There were 25,610 Part 121 ATP knowledge exams administered in 2014 before the ATP/CTP requirement. Sheppard Air made a sh!t ton of money that year!

MKUltra

3,300 atp certs issued in 2017. That's pretty much all the regionals and some cargo, and ga operators. That does not cover yearly retirements at the legacy operators, lcc growth, cargo growth and retirements and those that go overseas, and many who lose their medical.

Right how cae predicts that pilot part 142 training is maxed out and only can increase about 20 percent with significant investment.

The future isn't just a regional problem, it is an airline industry problem and the boat left there dock 10 year's ago.

Hitch yourself to a strong company, with a great infrastructure, management, and balance sheet.

Right how american might not be that one.

MantisToboggan

Second this. AA is painting itself into quite the corner. Kind of funny to see SK put the screws to AA after they forced him out

Lvlng4Spd

There is no focus, or the wrong focus. I've seen the reports, and AA is last in nearly every category measuring the big 3. No one is being held accountable, except the gate agent who gets written up if their flight is a minute late. Meanwhile, we leave 8 customers behind on the last flight of the night just to get that door closed on time. It is senseless stupidity. It's a fact that some of the biggest organizations are actually quite dysfunctional...too many divisions, unions, directives. We are no different...not a wonder they are starting to streamline. There will be more, there has to be.

MKUltra

Their will be a consolation in the legacies... delta and united or delta abed american...


Also those who poopooo the lcc..... why is american doing basic economy fares?.. hitch yourself to the first company you can make 100 plus k a year and not work for ass off..

flysooner9

Highly doubt the DOJ or whoever it is would allow anymore consolidation. At least any of the 3 majors.