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Old 04-01-2018, 05:52 AM
  #1581  
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Are they really telling new hires they'll flow in five years?? If that's the case, that's the most egregious lie they are telling, and that's saying something
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Old 04-01-2018, 05:58 AM
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Average attrition I have seen is around 6-7 a month. Not sure how it is towards the bottom of the seniority list though, that is based more towards the top 55-35% range.

To flow in five years, you'd need to see around 10 a month, that might be happening at the bottom of the list, but it sure isn't happening towards the top.
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Old 04-01-2018, 06:29 AM
  #1583  
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I’m towards the very bottom of the list as a new hire. The last few months that I’ve been “working” I’m seeing an average of about 11 a month. Some it’s been less than 10, other times I’ve seen myself move up 12-14 spots in one month. IF it continued at least an average 10 a month consistently, I’ve been estimating about 4 1/2 years.
Originally Posted by Lahey
Average attrition I have seen is around 6-7 a month. Not sure how it is towards the bottom of the seniority list though, that is based more towards the top 55-35% range.

To flow in five years, you'd need to see around 10 a month, that might be happening at the bottom of the list, but it sure isn't happening towards the top.
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Old 04-01-2018, 06:46 AM
  #1584  
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Originally Posted by Goingupinverted
I’m towards the very bottom of the list as a new hire. The last few months that I’ve been “working” I’m seeing an average of about 11 a month. Some it’s been less than 10, other times I’ve seen myself move up 12-14 spots in one month. IF it continued at least an average 10 a month consistently, I’ve been estimating about 4 1/2 years.
Right, it's different for where you are in the seniority list. If you're lower, you'll see a higher attrition. As time goes on, you won't be moving as fast. The average I have seen (been here for about 2-2.5 years) is 6.5 a month. When I first got on, I moved up quick, and it's slowed down quite a bit since then. As you get closer to the flow number, less and less people leave for other opportunities.

Make sure you look at how fast people are moving towards the top of the list as well so you can get an average, not just what it shows where you are. If not, I think you'll be disappointed when it is slower than what you initially calculated.
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Old 04-01-2018, 06:55 AM
  #1585  
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I figured, just was confirming what it looked like at the bottom. In my more realistic averages I add 1-1.5 years just for those reasons you mentioned. But then again if these negotiations don’t work out, all bets are off.
Originally Posted by Lahey
Right, it's different for where you are in the seniority list. If you're lower, you'll see a higher attrition. As time goes on, you won't be moving as fast. The average I have seen (been here for about 2-2.5 years) is 6.5 a month. When I first got on, I moved up quick, and it's slowed down quite a bit since then. As you get closer to the flow number, less and less people leave for other opportunities.

Make sure you look at how fast people are moving towards the top of the list as well so you can get an average, not just what it shows where you are. If not, I think you'll be disappointed when it is slower than what you initially calculated.
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Old 04-01-2018, 06:59 AM
  #1586  
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I would say add 2-3 years and you’ll be in the ballpark of when you’ll flow. There are many ways to crunch those numbers as you can see, but you can be sure it won’t be a 5 year flow for someone hired today. I think people hired in spring to early summer of 2015 will see the fastest flow, with anyone after that seeing an increasingly longer time until their number is called
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Old 04-01-2018, 07:07 AM
  #1587  
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Originally Posted by MantisToboggan
Are they really telling new hires they'll flow in five years?? If that's the case, that's the most egregious lie they are telling, and that's saying something
3 to 5 years actually. Well worst case is get your 1000 hours of part 121 time and start applying elsewhere.
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Old 04-01-2018, 08:11 AM
  #1588  
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Originally Posted by ArmyRWP2018
3 to 5 years actually.
I second that. That's what our class was told as well.
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Old 04-01-2018, 09:13 AM
  #1589  
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Originally Posted by 67Creek
I second that. That's what our class was told as well.
I demand to see the math they are using to confidently tell a new hire in the 700's on the seniority list that the flow is 3-5 years. They must expect to lose a lot of people to attrition.
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Old 04-01-2018, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by evrbodysmugglin
Pretty much everyone I talk to that’s outside of a year from flow has their finger on the button if this deal is not up to par. Swa spirit etc. apps will be flying off the shelves around here. Of course the smaat kids have apps out already and know they can push off class dates while waiting on the deal to be done

Pdt has been very good to me. However that is not the case for the majority of the line guys here as of lately.
The way PDT pilots are tripping over themselves to pick up open time, even during contract negotiations, they’ll fit right in at SWA. I’m surprised that more folks haven’t applied this window...
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