FmrPropCapt

That happened before all this. If I recall correctly the ENY MECC laughed in the faces of the PDT Neg Chair and the PDT MEC Vice Chair

PDTFlyer

Well they are better than us, so that makes sense. (Sarcasm)

MantisToboggan

The last of the 2007 hires are flowing next month. 15 2008 hires, then we're into 2011 hires. (no 2009, 2010 hires on the list)

2012 hires (19)
2013 hires (28)
2014 hires (38)
2015 hires (101)
2016 hires (132)
2017 hires (214)

IF it stays at 5 per month and 0 attrition outside the flow:

---ALL 2012 hires will flow in under 4 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in under 10 months
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year, 5 months
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 3 years, 1 month
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 5 years, 4 months
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 8 years, 10 months

Again, those are the hard numbers, with 0 attrition outside of the flow. Sound realistic? It's not.

Here's what those numbers look like flowing 6 per month:

---ALL 2012 hires will flow in 3 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in 8 months
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year, 3 months
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 2 years, 7 months
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 4 years, 5 months
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 7 years, 5 months

Not bad if you were hired early on in the hiring boom. But, keep in mind these numbers still don't take any attrition outside the flow into account. Have I said that yet?

Here's what those numbers look like flowing 7 per month (you want anything beyond that, better pull out your own calculator):

---ALL 2012 hires will flow in 3 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in 7 months
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year, 1 month
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 2 years, 3 months
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 3 years, 10 months
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 6 years, 5 months

BUT guess what? These numbers don't include attrition outside the flow. The longer you've been at the company, the less likely a person who leaves will be ahead of you on the seniority list. Probably something resembling a decreasing exponential curve of those chances, if you're a visual person. That is to say, the newer you are to the company, the greater the chances your flow time will be faster than what I calculated; the inverse is true for you folks who have been here for a while.

So use that information as you will. I don't have numbers on attrition, or I'd do some of that math stuff and put that into account for flow times. Would be nice if our union/the company would provide those numbers like so many other companies do, but hey we're Pigmont and this is how we do things round here!!

123494

Yeah it would be nice to see what outside attrition is on average. It should only increase as the majors continue hiring more and more. I'm sure many will stick around for the flow, but those with their apps out elsewhere should be getting calls.

AZFlyer

In the meantime, about the only way to watch attrition is to pay attention to how many people are on the seniority list each month and then do the basic arithmetic to account for new-hires, the flows, and see whats left for your attrition.

For December 2017 for example, I think we lost 6 people non-flow attrition. The total number of pilots was unchanged from Nov 17 to Dec 17 in spite of 11 new-hires coming and 5 flows leaving...so...that leaves 6 other people that left for some other job/reason.

flybywp

Only 10 new hires in the January class, what's up with that? Thought classes were full through April?

Lvlng4Spd

That flow math seems a little off. I'm a 2011 hire and have a good 4 months left. I just talked to two 2013 guys that are planning Spring of 2019.

MantisToboggan

Correct you are. Accidentally left out all 2011 hires (19). Will fix, thanks for the heads up

MantisToboggan

First post was a little off----forgot a year of pilots (2011 hires) on the list, oops!

The last of the 2007 hires are flowing next month. 15 2008 hires, then we're into 2011 hires. (no 2009, 2010 hires on the list)

2011 hires (19)
2012 hires (14)
2013 hires (28)
2014 hires (38)
2015 hires (101)
2016 hires (132)
2017 hires (214)

IF it stays at 5 per month and 0 attrition outside the flow:

---ALL 2011 hires will flow in 4 months
---ALL 2012 hires will flow in 7 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in 1 year, 2 months
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year, 8 months
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 3 years, 5 months
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 5 years, 7 months
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 9 years, 1 month

Again, those are the hard numbers, with 0 attrition outside of the flow. Sound realistic? It's not.

Here's what those numbers look like flowing 6 per month:


---ALL 2011 hires will flow in 4 months
---ALL 2012 hires will flow in 7 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in 1 year, 1 month
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year, 8 months
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 3 years, 4 months
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 4 years, 8 months
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 7 years, 7 months

Not bad if you were hired early on in the hiring boom. But, keep in mind these numbers still don't take any attrition outside the flow into account. Have I said that yet?

Here's what those numbers look like flowing 7 per month (you want anything beyond that, better pull out your own calculator):


---ALL 2011 hires will flow in 3 months
---ALL 2012 hires will flow in 5 months
---ALL 2013 hires will flow in 9 months
---ALL 2014 hires will flow in 1 year 3 months
---ALL 2015 hires will flow in 2 years, 5 months
---ALL 2016 hires will flow in 4 years
---ALL 2017 hires will flow in 6 years, 6 months

BUT guess what? These numbers don't include attrition outside the flow. The longer you've been at the company, the less likely a person who leaves will be ahead of you on the seniority list. Probably something resembling a decreasing exponential curve of those chances, if you're a visual person. That is to say, the newer you are to the company, the greater the chances your flow time will be faster than what I calculated; the inverse is true for you folks who have been here for a while.

So use that information as you will. I don't have numbers on attrition, or I'd do some of that math stuff and put that into account for flow times. Would be nice if our union/the company would provide those numbers like so many other companies do, but hey we're Pigmont and this is how we do things round here!!


**all numbers came from the seniority list on the CP page of company website**

67Creek

Those aren't encouraging numbers, but thanks for putting them together.

How about upgrades? I didn't realize they hired that many in 2017. Can someone starting today still expect an immediate upgrade when hitting the 1000 hrs 121?