havick206

What are the flow metrics at PDT? How many pilots flow per month/size of pilot group?

Newstick189

It is on the border between 5 and 6 pilots per month right this moment for a pilot group size of <750.

We have a healthy amount of senior guys who are opting to bypass. I think between the attrition to other companies and raw flow numbers, it would be a conservative guess to say it would be 6-7 years from new hire to flow here.

Envoy has a little more funkiness going on, because they have a flow which is based on a percentage of the AA class for seniority older than 2014. However, the company can throttle the flow roughly in half for operational necessity - which they have been doing. So their projections are a more of a murky guess at this point than anything whereas ours is a more simple calculation.

MKUltra

I actually heard it from your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate.

unfortunately there are some balls rolling on this... I'm hoping it dies in the water and we stay lil ole piedmont. Hopefully we get our pay raise and increase in flow numbers and that's it.

67Creek

I would like to know the same.

Recruiter said 3-5 years. Not sure how they get to that number.

For 3 years:

If someone hits the seniority list at 650, a three year flow means losing 217 pilots per year. If we plan on flowing 55/year (5/mo * 11 months) that leaves 162/yr (13.5/mo) that need to leave via other means.

So, Flow (5) + 13.5/mo from the pilots ahead of you.

If we start flowing six per month, thats Flow (6) + 12.5/mo.

If 150 senior pilots will never choose to flow, then every month we need to lose

Flow (5) + 9.3/mo from the flow-willing pilots ahead of you, or
Flow (6) + 8.4/mo from the flow-willing pilots ahead of you.

For 5 years:

Flow (5) + 6.3/month, or
Flow (6) + 5.3/month

If 150 pilots pass on flow, need to lose:

Flow (5) + 3.8/mo of the flow-willing pilots ahead of you, or
Flow (6) + 2.8/mo of the flow-willing pilots ahead of you

So...

Do they really anticipate loosing 13 pilots every month, outside of the flow, off the top of the list?

Is my math wrong?

Are they just full of it?

Newstick189

First rule, never trust recruiters.

You also need to realize how they get the math for their calculations sometimes. Flow goes to a 2015 DOH? well there you go, that's a 3 year flow. However, don't discount that 30% of the pilots on the roster were hired after that point.

It's realistic to say 5-7 years. Honestly, if you come here for the flow I think you are doing yourself a disservice. That's an unpopular opinion, but If anything I would come here for the upgrade time/base(if it works for you)/etc. The flow is something nice to have in your back pocket but this job has a lot of opportunity for resume development.

havick206

This doesn’t answer my question. I’m curious what the metrics would be if the pilot grew to the 3000+ range overnight?

Newstick189

The base flow is 3 pilots plus an increase of 1 pilot per 125 above the base number of 380. Envoy has a similar verbiage for their pilots after a 2014 DOH. PSA has recently changed so I'm not sure how they calculate it.

So, at 3000 pilots (which isn't ever likely) it would be 24 pilots per month OR 25% of the new AA class, whichever is less.

In the event of a merger, the flow would increase for Envoy/PDT but it would really skew the projections on both seniority lists, which is why the merger could have some sort of wording keeping the seniority lists separated for flow purposes only.

havick206

So a merger (assuming there’s any truth to the rumor above) with Envoy would simply slow the flow for both pilot groups as AA is now flowing from one larger pool of pilots instead of two streams.

Newstick189

That is tough to say, and it would be something hashed out in the court room between the two unions.

Speculation says we would keep the seniority lists/flow metrics separated. However, it is possible we would be put under the same flow agreement as Envoy, which would make it impossible to project when some of our guys would flow.

Eventually once Envoy reaches a certain point, their flow contract is identical to ours with exception to the base pilot number. This part of the flow cannot be restricted.

AZFlyer

I'm doubtful of the likelihood of merging with Envoy. Among reasons already stated, it would also mean one less carrier for Parker to whipsaw against the others should circumstances ever go that way.

I want Piedmont to stay separate and become a great place to be. #MPAGA (Make Piedmont Airlines Great Again ). Speaking of, aren't the meetings with the union and the company for the contract items beginning today?