Sequester Predictions
09-04-2013, 06:03 AM
#1
Libertarian Resistance
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
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Sequester Predictions
Last week’s word that the GDP grew at2.5 percent in the second quarter is strong economic news; the jobs report due Friday may signal if the recent mild decline in unemployment will accelerate.
The good news about the second quarter applies to the period the sequester went into effect. Widely predicted to cause awful economic distress, instead across-the-board spending cuts have been accompanied by economic improvement. When the sequester began, unemployment was 7.9 percent and the most recent quarter had shown only 0.4 percent GDP growth. Now unemployment is down to 7.4 percent while growth has climbed to 2.5 percent. Perhaps these improvements would have happened anyway; perhaps trends would be even better without the sequester. All that can be known is that politicians and pundits said the sequester would be terrible for the economy, and instead so far it’s been a positive.
Let’s review some predictions:
“Sequester Will Sock A Vulnerable Economy” — Washington Post banner headline on the midwinter day the sequester started. “The sequester is already hurting our economy,” President Barack Obama said a few days later. Since these statements, the GDP is up about 3 percent, the stock market is up about 5 percent, unemployment is down half a percent and the housing market has become so strong there is talk of a new bubble. Three months into the sequester, American household net worth hit an all-time high.
Unnamed “experts” predicted that the sequester “will cost 700,000 jobs. Instead about 1 million new jobs have been added.
Early in the sequester, the New York Times’ lead editorial declared that Ohio “could lose 30,000 jobs” while approving of a claim that federal spending restrictions could bring the University of Cincinnati’s medical school “to its knees.” Three months later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, “The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Ohio.” The latest figures show Ohio having 37,000 more jobs than in the same month of the previous year. Rather than kneel, the University of Cincinnati’s medical school announced a $100 million expansion.
http://cafehayek.com/2013/09/the-int...s-roberts.html
WW
I would
The good news about the second quarter applies to the period the sequester went into effect. Widely predicted to cause awful economic distress, instead across-the-board spending cuts have been accompanied by economic improvement. When the sequester began, unemployment was 7.9 percent and the most recent quarter had shown only 0.4 percent GDP growth. Now unemployment is down to 7.4 percent while growth has climbed to 2.5 percent. Perhaps these improvements would have happened anyway; perhaps trends would be even better without the sequester. All that can be known is that politicians and pundits said the sequester would be terrible for the economy, and instead so far it’s been a positive.
Let’s review some predictions:
“Sequester Will Sock A Vulnerable Economy” — Washington Post banner headline on the midwinter day the sequester started. “The sequester is already hurting our economy,” President Barack Obama said a few days later. Since these statements, the GDP is up about 3 percent, the stock market is up about 5 percent, unemployment is down half a percent and the housing market has become so strong there is talk of a new bubble. Three months into the sequester, American household net worth hit an all-time high.
Unnamed “experts” predicted that the sequester “will cost 700,000 jobs. Instead about 1 million new jobs have been added.
Early in the sequester, the New York Times’ lead editorial declared that Ohio “could lose 30,000 jobs” while approving of a claim that federal spending restrictions could bring the University of Cincinnati’s medical school “to its knees.” Three months later, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, “The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in Ohio.” The latest figures show Ohio having 37,000 more jobs than in the same month of the previous year. Rather than kneel, the University of Cincinnati’s medical school announced a $100 million expansion.
http://cafehayek.com/2013/09/the-int...s-roberts.html
WW
I would
09-06-2013, 09:07 PM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
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Posts: 641
It may not of been precise, but if that's the only way to get some action(sequester) so be it. Congress seems unable to act otherwise. A 'line item veto' to the President would help, but not passable. Not that it could change the tide.
Entitlement programs on auto-pilot are the bulk of the spending growth. The timeline most politicians are concerned with is the next election, not beyond.
Entitlement programs on auto-pilot are the bulk of the spending growth. The timeline most politicians are concerned with is the next election, not beyond.
09-11-2013, 06:49 AM
#3
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 50
The sequester was trimming a nosehair off a hairy gorilla - not big for the ultimate troubles coming down the pike. And the unfortunate thing, we will not feel the effects (at least in the military) for years to come when all that R&D money does not yield any results...
09-11-2013, 07:36 AM
#4
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Posts: 2,115
It's hitting some
Sequester Effects: Top Public Defender Forced To Fire Himself
I know of one district that's going to be 30% lighter come 10/1/13, start of the FY.
I know of one district that's going to be 30% lighter come 10/1/13, start of the FY.
09-13-2013, 08:07 AM
#6
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Posts: 5,244
The Chief of Naval Operations just announced that Naval Aviation needs to expect another $14B budget cut on top of the $11B already in effect.
"It's hard to imagine a more dangerous or stupid way of making decisions, than by putting those dicisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." -Thomas Sowell
"It's hard to imagine a more dangerous or stupid way of making decisions, than by putting those dicisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong." -Thomas Sowell
09-26-2013, 09:30 AM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,244
This is a little dated, but still pertinent. It's not mathimatically possible to get there without cutting entitlements and reducing the size of govt.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...phic.html?_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...phic.html?_r=0
09-29-2013, 11:14 AM
#9
Banned
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Posts: 248
In the final analysis, nothing much will come from the sequester. In real terms, it won't even be noticeable. What Congress must do is take the previous year's budget for all agencies, bureaus and departments and reduce them by some small percentage every year. While they're at it, they will have the time to examine the entire structure of the government and start to eliminate some of the duplicative functions entirely. We simply don't need dozens of training programs, etc. Virtually all of the regulatory agencies have become bloated and useless, costing the citizens far more in poorly designed regulations than they are worth. That must be stopped.
Last edited by Sum Ting Wong; 09-29-2013 at 11:15 AM. Reason: Grammar
09-29-2013, 11:19 AM
#10
Moderator
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,807
In the final analysis, nothing much will come from the sequester. In real terms, it won't even be noticeable. What Congress must do is take the previous year's budget for all agencies, bureaus and departments and reduce them by some small percentage every year. While they're at it, they will have the time to examine the entire structure of the government and start to eliminate some of the duplicative functions entirely. We simply don't need dozens of training programs, etc. Virtually all of the regulatory agencies have become bloated and useless, costing the citizens far more in poorly designed regulations than they are worth. That must be stopped.
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