Company 401K, your thoughts?
#21
The fetal position is never a long term stance, but it has proven to be the correct stance over the last decade for those not quite brave enough to go short.
Interventions have changed the face of the market, and interventions are never the true face of the market. Time will tell, and the can may be kicked down the road for quite a while before it explodes.
Most radical shifts tend to be quite "unexpected".
What many of us don't understand is that deflation is the most likely, and actual scenario, driven by high public and private debt. It doesn't matter how much money is printed if very few can take on any more debt. Take a look at the last two decades in Japan. Inflation isn't a threat right now, it may be so in the future, but it takes a wage/price spiral to really get it going-and we are a very long way from that scenario.
There is real large scale deflation in the stock market, housing market and job market. High taxes and high debt insure it will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Interventions have changed the face of the market, and interventions are never the true face of the market. Time will tell, and the can may be kicked down the road for quite a while before it explodes.
Most radical shifts tend to be quite "unexpected".
What many of us don't understand is that deflation is the most likely, and actual scenario, driven by high public and private debt. It doesn't matter how much money is printed if very few can take on any more debt. Take a look at the last two decades in Japan. Inflation isn't a threat right now, it may be so in the future, but it takes a wage/price spiral to really get it going-and we are a very long way from that scenario.
There is real large scale deflation in the stock market, housing market and job market. High taxes and high debt insure it will stay that way for the foreseeable future.
Last edited by jungle; 06-27-2010 at 08:11 PM.
#22
Now that's not exactly true. Going short wasn't the only way to make money in the market over the past decade. The cash flow method I use consistently produced around a 12% annual yield throughout the decade. For example, in 2008 when many people were losing 40% in their 401k's, I had a 15% cash flow yield in mine. Not trying to brag at all... just pointing out that going short wasn't the only way to make money during that time period and that there were/are ways to do it without having to correctly guess the future direction of the market.
#23
Now that's not exactly true. Going short wasn't the only way to make money in the market over the past decade. The cash flow method I use consistently produced around a 12% annual yield throughout the decade. For example, in 2008 when many people were losing 40% in their 401k's, I had a 15% cash flow yield in mine. Not trying to brag at all... just pointing out that going short wasn't the only way to make money during that time period and that there were/are ways to do it without having to correctly guess the future direction of the market.
Then we can easily backtest them, for validity. Your move.
Last edited by jungle; 06-27-2010 at 08:55 PM.
#24
I remember that during the 80's people were pushing IRA's with the claim if you put x amount in that after a certain period of time you would have banked about a million dollars.
Any one remember this and did it work for anyone ?
Fred
Any one remember this and did it work for anyone ?
Fred
#25
My intent in posting in this thread has been to show that there are other ways to invest without having to rely on market timing. Also, it should be noted that most companies do not have the brokerage link capabilities to be able to do this in their 401k's. At Delta, we are fortunate that we do.
Here are the links:
Performance Discussion
Overview of the Snider Method (just follow the links at the end of each page for subsequent pages with more detail)
Last edited by DAL 88 Driver; 06-28-2010 at 09:52 AM. Reason: clarity
#26
I can well understand that paying 3K or so for a "method" would make one inclined to support said method.
What is somewhat troubling is a great concern about generating income and an accounting method that seems to ignore the effects on the starting capital.
There are a thousand ways to skin the cat, glad you found one you like.
What is somewhat troubling is a great concern about generating income and an accounting method that seems to ignore the effects on the starting capital.
There are a thousand ways to skin the cat, glad you found one you like.
#27
Pull up a chart of the indexes from 1980 to about 1998 and you can see why that strategy worked well, by the same token you can see why it failed from about 1999 onward.
#28
Might be a good time to start looking for places where the cost of living is low especially if the market goes tango uniform every so often .
Nothing like taking a hit on the ole retirement while in retirement and not recovering for years after.
Fred
#29
Absolutely. What I am doing is a rather unconventional way to "skin the cat". The objective of this method is significantly different from the objective of capital appreciation investing. It happens to fit my objectives and comfort level very well. If you read through the links, understood everything correctly, and are not comfortable with the concept... then it would not be a good fit for you. Like I said before, it doesn't matter one bit to me. I only got into this discussion because I thought I could add some perspective to the suggestion being made about putting your money in the money market.
#30
"unrealized (paper) losses"
I think I could write a book on the perception of "unrealized losses" and how it skews a realistic view of performance.
My intention is not to be critical, but only to show there are many methods and many ways to attain a desired result. Best of luck to you.
I think I could write a book on the perception of "unrealized losses" and how it skews a realistic view of performance.
My intention is not to be critical, but only to show there are many methods and many ways to attain a desired result. Best of luck to you.
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