Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Pilot Lounge > Money Talk
Wealth by generation and asset class: >

Wealth by generation and asset class:

Search

Notices
Money Talk Your hard-earned money

Wealth by generation and asset class:

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 10-08-2023, 06:56 PM
  #11  
Perennial Reserve
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,181
Default

Originally Posted by rickair7777
That's pretty conservative. Conventional wisdom is 4% first year, and then adjust for inflation in subsequent years.
Yep. But when you are a pessimist the vast majority of your surprises are happy ones…
Excargodog is offline  
Old 10-11-2023, 01:27 PM
  #12  
Ignoring; John Burke.
 
hopp's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jul 2022
Position: Wandering
Posts: 236
Default

Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
The one question I’ve never been able to get answered is “what’s my number?” What number am I shooting for in my retirement accounts so that I know when I can retire?
That question is always answered with more questions. More is better of course, but I’d sure like to know when I can pull the chute and be done.

You’re asking pilots on an anonymous message board?

GET PROFESSIONAL HELP. I mean the financial planning type. Find a CFP and pay them. Best money you’ll ever spend.

If you have a retirement savings account at Schwab, they have a pretty inexpensive financial coaching program. I’d guess the other big houses have something similar.

If your too cheap for that, there are lot’s of books available. Try Jane Bryant Quinn.
hopp is offline  
Old 10-11-2023, 09:07 PM
  #13  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,205
Default

Originally Posted by hopp
You’re asking pilots on an anonymous message board?

GET PROFESSIONAL HELP. I mean the financial planning type. Find a CFP and pay them. Best money you’ll ever spend.

If you have a retirement savings account at Schwab, they have a pretty inexpensive financial coaching program. I’d guess the other big houses have something similar.

If your too cheap for that, there are lot’s of books available. Try Jane Bryant Quinn.
Yes you need that just to avoid gross strategic errors, or getting raped by the tax man.

But it's not going to change the basic math. Assuming reasonably conservative performance you need $1M to provide $40k/year income.

How much income do you want in retirement? How much income do you *need*? That's your window.

You can always adjust risk to suit your personal taste, that will change either your savings plan, your retirement QOL, or both.

If you want to have your cake and eat it too, you'll need a specialty investment advisor, with a name like Bernard or Jordan.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-11-2023, 09:26 PM
  #14  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,205
Default

Originally Posted by ZapBrannigan
Pretty much zero chance we hit 5 million by the time I retire. Too many furloughs, too little income during the lost decade. I’ll probably clear 3 barring some other black swan event.
Your house can count towards that, if you don't need to leave it to heirs and you expect to downsize later.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-21-2023, 10:55 AM
  #15  
In a land of unicorns
 
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,609
Default

Originally Posted by rickair7777
Yes you need that just to avoid gross strategic errors, or getting raped by the tax man.

But it's not going to change the basic math. Assuming reasonably conservative performance you need $1M to provide $40k/year income.

How much income do you want in retirement? How much income do you *need*? That's your window.

You can always adjust risk to suit your personal taste, that will change either your savings plan, your retirement QOL, or both.

If you want to have your cake and eat it too, you'll need a specialty investment advisor, with a name like Bernard or Jordan.
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
dera is offline  
Old 10-21-2023, 03:51 PM
  #16  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,205
Default

Originally Posted by dera
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
The formula is based on depleting principle, not just living on the growth and dividends. So the investment returns shrink over time with the principle. Idea being, it's a minimum number on which you can reasonably rely based on history. It doesn't leave much for heirs if you live a long life, and you might even run out (although presumably you'd taper your spending along the way if you were headed there).

If you want to live off returns and dividends, it will likely require a much larger principle nest egg. You are of course free to save more, if you have the means.

That said, nobody has a crystal ball, so there's always a variety of risks not accounted for in any such plan. It's a tradeoff between:
1) Cost (money you could be spending on boats, hookers and blow in your youth) vs
2) Personal risk tolerance.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-22-2023, 07:18 AM
  #17  
Gets Everyday Off
 
TransWorld's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Fully Retired
Posts: 7,000
Default

Originally Posted by dera
That's an extremely conservative number, less than half of historic S&P500 return. The Trinity Study (where the 4% comes from) has been widely criticized and they did use a somewhat odd portfolio as their data set.
Philanthropic organizations, such as universities, charities, etc. use the 4% rule. The additional return from the S&P 500 is added to the principle to keep the buying power where it is. inflation is a profound thing over the years.
TransWorld is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Low & Slow
Major
37
08-23-2007 05:07 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices