Frank K

Don't be a fool. Stay and get your 20. I've been at UAL for 17 years and have absolutely nothing to show for it. Stuck in the same seat and fleet for 15 years.

The shine comes off the airline gig real quick and it becomes more like a paper route.

You need to discount your expected airline earnings by the current junk bond rate of 7%. You can discount your military pension by the 30 TIPS real rate of 1%. Then compare the present value of each. I'd also assume a few years of airline furlough.

Tummy

I've done my part. I've deployed twice. I realize other people have deployed many more times than that, but I've also met a lot of people who have retired having never deployed. I've also met entire communities of people who call sitting in a 5 star hotel in El Salvador "deployment."

It wasn't my intention to make any sort of judgement on whether or not the reserves should deploy. My main observation is that most people talk about the reserves as though one will never have to deploy, and it's an easy way to get a reserve retirement and build seniority while ducking the junior schedules at the airlines. I'm not sure that's accurate anymore.

You also need to discount your military pension by the likelihood that the rules will change before you are able to collect it or that something catastrophic will happen while you are on deployment.

Hacker15e

Here are links to some musings from previous times we've taken a ride on this merry-go-round in 2007 and 2010 (although this topic has been discussed numerous other times, and bears searching and reading for anyone who is actually asking themselves this question). Although the industry is notably different now vs in 2007, in my opinion we're still ultimately left with the same basic fact that both of these previous discussions point out:

Any long-term financial advantage of the guy who leaves as soon as his commitment is up and goes directly to a career at a major airline is completely wiped out by a furlough or bankruptcy at that major.

It is a gamble either way, but only one of the two choices results in having a "guaranteed" $35K+/year being deposited in your bank account.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/mi...ould-i-go.html

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/ma...-airlines.html

As someone who is just joining the check-of-month club, now looking back on things in their entirety, I am in the camp that says, if your family and lifestyle can swing the aforementioned "hybrid option" with a reserve gig as a parachute against airline industry unrest, that's the best way. As I've posted before, that isn't a path that works for everyone:

skypilot35

I fly with guys all the time who will generally make this statement:
"Man, if I'd stay in I'd be retired by now. How much is your retirement?"

To which I usually respond, "It's enough......Ready for the gear Captain?"

To each his own, but for me having the mortgage paid and not having to pay for crappy company medical (up to $400 per month) was worth it.

As many have stated (guys at a major) this job becomes "a job" pretty quick.

rickair7777

No I don't think so. Mob would probably happen while you're a junior airline pilot so the military pay (+ tax breaks) would likely more than make up for loss of airline pay (for most airlines) at that point. If you make O-6 and stick around to 30, you *might* get mobbed but by the time you upgrade to CA at the airline you should be able to retire from the reserves. Once you have your 20, if the Mob risk is nor palatable then just retire.

Generally I would recommend staying in the reserves as a backup. Ever since 9/11 the conventional wisdom was to get the military retirement (AD or RC) whatever else you do. However in the current climate, you can make a reasonable case that there might be a big QOL payoff to walking away from the military entirely. There's risk but the retirement numbers don't lie...I suspect at this point the majors with older demographics (ie big three) would skip the furlough for anything but a major economic collapse.

As a reservist, you know you've achieved the proper job/military/family balance when all three hate you equally...

hvydvr

The answer of course is "It depends."

I saw a lot of guys in the squadrons doing spreadsheets in the late 90s. Those spreadsheets were toilet paper on Sept 12th and many of those guys came back on active duty shortly thereafter.

Nothing is guaranteed. I'm encouraging my kids to learn how to fix air conditioners. In south Texas, they'll be billionaires.

Good luck on your choice.

TheJudge

I love these threads. It's impossible to ever be certain you're making the right call, so I enjoy reading multiple opinions about the subject. I jumped on TERA last year as a 17 year O4, and went straight to a federal government job doing work related to what I did on active duty. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it) my invite to interview at Delta came a few months after I was somewhat settled into my new job. I feel like I'm missing a huge opportunity by not interviewing at Delta, but I'm happy to be back on the gov't payroll, home every night, fairly paid and working on another pension. The point is the mil pension changes things. It's an enabler for stomaching 1st year airline pay, but it's just as much of a game changer in a non-airline career if you find yourself going that route. Inflation adjusted annuities are expensive as hell, so be careful what you throw away. If there's any chance you'll hit 50% disability it's even more ridiculous. I'm 39 with essentially a 24 year O5 pension. It would cost around $1.6M to buy a lifetime, inflation adjusted, survivor benefit protected annuity like I have right now. Security is nothing to scoff at in your financial planning. The 20 year pension may not exist forever, so I say stick it out and get it while it lasts.

rickair7777

I had one of those spreadsheets!

FLY6584

Bingo. That's what it's all about. Forget the spreadsheets, forget the crystal ball, and do what makes you happy. If you like active duty and don't mind where you live then stick it out and get the check/healthcare. If you can't stand active duty then punch. When you're on your deathbed are you going to care what was on some spreadsheet or a difference of a couple hundred thousand in a bank account?

I know I took a huge risk getting out and not pursuing a Guard/Reserve job, but I am genuinely happy. I am very grateful to be 30 years old, received the training and experience I received, and didn't have to grind it out at the regionals for 10 years trying to get that all important TPIC. What more can a guy ask for? Just do what makes you and your family happy and what will you ever have to regret?

Tweetdrvr

What rank do your calculations assume you will hold at retirement? O-5 is not a guarantee, especially in this fiscal austere uber PC climate. Say the wrong thing or do something perceived as wrong and you could be on the RIF list.

How is your health? What is the family history? Any heart disease or cancer? Are you taking action to prevent those diseases? I think I'd rather be on airline disability, if those unfortunate things occur than to be medically retired from AD and maybe unable to obtain an FAA Class 1.

Getting an airline job under 40 and being in the ANG/AFRC (if your family can handle the lifestyle) before any of the things happen that have a higher likelihood of happening as we age would seem to be the better plan.