hurricanechaser

I think this question is a fair one. I am seriously considering joining the military to become an Officer and pilot through OTS, now that I am done with college.

I was wondering if anybody knows the answer to whether or not The marines or navy Acitve Duty will be needing more prop guys, jet guys, helos, or osprey in the forseeable future.

Just wondering if somebody has some foresight based on what they see around them or have heard. Trust me I will be doing my own DD on this one but i'm just trying to get some sentiment as well.

Anybody with a crystal ball may speak up as well!

USMCFLYR

Let me the first to say it before the bandwagon jumps in - don't become a military officer just to fly or else you will be disappointed. Become a military officer because you want to serve you country; if an aircraft happens to be your weapons system then you'll have a blast! If things work out for you and you do become a pilot then the military will obviosly have given you a skill that is very transferrable to the outside world. If you decide to exercise that skill after your first commitment, then more power to you - but know what you are getting into prior to jumping in head first in very deep and challenging waters right now.

The simple answer is yes. As a side view - the Navy recently offered the jet transition across the board to all communities. They were hoping for 25 transitions and had 7 apply. In the future I can't imagine how many will be selecting the multi-engine pipeline once the new P-8 comes on line for the Navy.

USMCFLYR

hurricanechaser

Thanks USMCFLYR, you always give the most informative post that I can recollect. Maybe I should give some background info on me. I was denied Active Duty Air Force due to a permenant disqualification. Eczema is a permenant, so I am currently looking for any other branch willing to waive that. I tried ANG in RI twice already and was told to reapply which I will. Now I am looking at navy and marines to get into Active Duty once again.

Currently I am flight instructing with 900TT 22ME. I had always wanted to fly military aircraft. By all means any aircraft would be fine by me helos included. I want to be a part of the best military in the world. However at the same time I am looking for such fringe benefits such as: Job security, decent pay, GI Bill to get a masters in Business and a type rating down the road, and a different type of flying then I am used to.

I would appreciate any advice, maybe you can tell me some more that I don't know.

rickair7777

I know the army may tend to waive medical conditions that other services would not...not sure if that would apply to aviation jobs though.

As far as long term demand...you really will need to break out the crystal ball for that one.

At the end of the cold-war, I saw most of the officers in my unit who were one step senior to me get RIFed...kicked out because they were no longer needed. This did not give me a warm-fuzzy about job security, so I got out when the time came. Within a few years they were begging me to come back, having over-RIFed my skill set

The big uncertainty re. future manpower is Iraq/Afghanistan...those are "discretionary conflicts" and the new administration could decide to pull out rapidly. In that case there could well be further reductions as finances are diverted to economic needs.

Also we will see more military aviation relegated to UAS (Unmanned Arial Systems, aka UAVs). That could easily effect a military aviator's future...you might end up a professional video gamer, or out on the street if they decide that junior enlisted are more cost-effective UAV pilots.

If you want job security in the military, sack-up and complete army or navy special operations training...that is going to be a growth industry for at least the next 100 years.

USMCFLYR

Thanks - that is a nice compliment.

When I was in AFROTC in college - during a time when they didn't really need people (remember needs of the service come first and foremost!) I was rejected for **commissioning** 7 times due to a variety of reasons - the biggest being two knee surgeries. It eventually came down to a Navy Doc (LT) who looked at me on the second day of OCS and asked if I had problems with my knees. When I told him that I didn't, he said "well this is the most physically demanding initial training available, so if you make it then you're OK; if not, then at least you can say that you gave it a shot!"
Morale of the story: If you want it bad enough, don't give up.

Well....desire goes a long way to dealing with the disappointment and hard work required to succeed. Not all will make it; but you will at some point either contune the fight or decide that you're time has come and gone and will continue with a career in professional aviation. That is the road that I started down after my multiple rejections and eventually I switched my major to aviation and started my ratings in college. I was going to fly one way or another!

USMCFLYR

FlyArmy

I think this answer is fair. UAVs.

hjs1971

Here's another thing to consider...by the time you interview, get selected, get commisioned, go to UPT, get an aircraft assigned, it will be AT LEAST 2 years from now, probably more and the only 2 things that I see still being a constant need are tankers and cargo jets (and probably helo/Ospreys). I think by 2015, if not 2012, UAV's will outnumber all F, F/A, A, and B- model jets. Just my $.02

rickair7777

That's ridiculous, unless you are counting model-airplane UAV's for use by infantry squads.

1) They can't build real UAV's that fast.
2) There are no UAV's which can perform the fighter mission.
3) Current UAV's have very limited attack capability.
4) The USAF wants to keep strategic bombing in it's bag of tricks...that will require a manned bomber. This is already a done deal.

I agree that tracking U-2's might be a bad idea right now, but B-X's, F-22's, F-35's, and F-18's are going to be in service for decades to come.

hjs1971

First, what is your military background for your info?
Second, they can build UAV's as fast as they want and a heck of alot faster than F-35's.
Third, how many air to air kills have been logged by ALL air forces worldwide in the last 20 years (doesn't make dogfighting as important anymore, are you familiar with the newer versions of the Patriot missile and the Russian made S-400 {I think it's that one} system?).
Fourth, I beg to differ with the new Reaper UAV and the newer ones on the drawing board have more attack capability than an F-16 (no offense to the Viper guys out there).
Fifth, there are currently less than 100 flyable B series bombers in the USAF, I know PAA is more than that but if an A hour were declared, no way could we get more than 100 mission ready.
Lastly, I didn't say they weren't going to be in service for decades to come, they def. will be. I did say by 2015, over a given battlespace, there will be more UAV's than Fighter/Bomber/Attack aircraft. Add in tankers, cargo, helo's, and IRR, and manned will outnumber UAV's for the next decade.

By the way, if nothing changes, what two aircraft (currently in operational use) are the only two that are scheduled to be flying in the year 2045? KC-135's and B-52's. That too, lends me to believe that the USAF (maybe not Army, Marines, Navy) are leaning towards UAV's.

Mox Nix

Wow, USMC, you were an Air Force Cay-det?

What time frame? Based on the second part of your statement I'm guessing early 90s - post Cold War/post Gulf War drawdown?

I was commissioned in 1990 with a UPT date in May 1991, lost the training slot (along with about 300 other guys) in Feb/Mar right after the Gulf War was over. That was also the start of the "bank" and "feet on the ramp" policy for non-bonus takers.

I came on active duty in a desk job hoping to still get to fly, and got to start training in 1994 (the AF realized that clamping down the pipeline so tight would cause shortages later). Do you think the services will ever figure out this manning thing?

Funny story, I was at an airshow a few years ago, and went to talk to a Coast Guard guy who was there with a Falcon jet. I asked him what made him consider the CG, and he said "well I got my commission from AFROTC but then lost my pilot slot". He looked around at other options and found the Coast Guard...said he really enjoyed it.