Should I stay or should I go?
07-15-2007, 07:44 PM
#1
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Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 26
Should I stay or should I go?
Hello all, I'd appreciate your thoughts on which direction to go. I was a C-17 guy for 3 years and now I'm teaching at UPT in the T-6. I've still got 6 years left on my commitment.
With the VSP announcement supposed to happen next month, I've been pondering getting out and trying to get picked up at a C-17 reserve unit. The problem is that I've only got a couple hundred hours PIC so I'm far from a major airline job.
My main reason for leaving AD is these insane 365-day deployments to teach Iraqi UPT. That is tops on my list of things not to. It blows my mind and scares the hell out of me.
This is all assuming that AFPC decides my year group is overmanned of course, but I need to make my mind up by the time the announcement happens.
Any words of wisdom?
Oh yeah, first post!
With the VSP announcement supposed to happen next month, I've been pondering getting out and trying to get picked up at a C-17 reserve unit. The problem is that I've only got a couple hundred hours PIC so I'm far from a major airline job.
My main reason for leaving AD is these insane 365-day deployments to teach Iraqi UPT. That is tops on my list of things not to. It blows my mind and scares the hell out of me.
This is all assuming that AFPC decides my year group is overmanned of course, but I need to make my mind up by the time the announcement happens.
Any words of wisdom?
Oh yeah, first post!
07-15-2007, 08:42 PM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: 777 FO
Posts: 931
Don't do anything permanent until you have a job lined up in the Guard/Reserves (preferably full-time) and/or airline gig. Keep in mind that you will not make as much money at the airlines as you would full time AD. At least until you're making 3rd year widebody FO pay at FDX or UPS. Have the 365 day TDYs to Iraq become official yet? If so, then I don't blame you a bit for thinking of leaving early. If they're not, then I'd carefully consider the ramifications of getting out early. Teaching UPT in the T-6 has got to be better than flying for a commuter for the next 6 years. Not to mention alot more lucrative.
07-15-2007, 10:16 PM
#3
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,930
Why are you so eager to get out with only one operational tour under your belt and barely into your second tour? Jeez, that's not even 1/2 of your commitment done.
I agree with Deuce...best to stick with what you've got for the time being.
The pre 9/11 the mantra for the military pilot was "every day you stay in past the end of your commitment is another seniority number lost." I have a couple spreadsheets that some old-timers in my first squadron made (late 90s) that showed it was not financially beneficial to stay in the military to 20 and get a retirement. Why? Because the money you'd earn at a Major during those 12 years after your initial UPT commitment is up FAR outpaced the value of the retirement.
I don't have any of those spreadsheets in front of me right now, but based on how far pay scales at the Majors have fallen post 9/11 I'm of the opinion that is not really the case anymore. I think that in the short run it's better to stay in as long as you can keep flying. It's probably even worth it to suffer through a remote ALO or a staff tour, so long as you can get back to a flying job at the end of your career and have that currency when you apply to the Majors.
I personally think you'll do better financially -- as well as professionally getting that PIC turbine as a T-6 IP and then when you go back to the C-17 as an A/C -- if you stay in to the end of your commitment and jump directly to a Major at that time.
Anyone have a current comparison spreadsheet? I'm half tempted to make one myself now that I'm thinking about it.
I agree with Deuce...best to stick with what you've got for the time being.
The pre 9/11 the mantra for the military pilot was "every day you stay in past the end of your commitment is another seniority number lost." I have a couple spreadsheets that some old-timers in my first squadron made (late 90s) that showed it was not financially beneficial to stay in the military to 20 and get a retirement. Why? Because the money you'd earn at a Major during those 12 years after your initial UPT commitment is up FAR outpaced the value of the retirement.
I don't have any of those spreadsheets in front of me right now, but based on how far pay scales at the Majors have fallen post 9/11 I'm of the opinion that is not really the case anymore. I think that in the short run it's better to stay in as long as you can keep flying. It's probably even worth it to suffer through a remote ALO or a staff tour, so long as you can get back to a flying job at the end of your career and have that currency when you apply to the Majors.
I personally think you'll do better financially -- as well as professionally getting that PIC turbine as a T-6 IP and then when you go back to the C-17 as an A/C -- if you stay in to the end of your commitment and jump directly to a Major at that time.
Anyone have a current comparison spreadsheet? I'm half tempted to make one myself now that I'm thinking about it.
07-15-2007, 11:52 PM
#4
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,930
Okay, so I sat down over lunch and gonked the numbers in Excel, and here's what I came up with:
SCENARIOS:
1. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and retire as an O-4 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
2. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and O-5 and retire as an O-5 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
3. Leave AF at 10, get hired by SWA
ASSUMPTIONS:
FY2007 USAF pay scale before taxes
BAS/BAH is the "average" BAH for FY07 plus std officer BAS
10-year UPT commitment (so age 31/32 is the "break" point)
Promotion to Maj at 10 years in scenario 1 and 2
Promotion to Lt Col at 16 years in scenario 2
Make gates to maintain ACIP at FY07 rate in scenario 1 and 2
Took "pilot bonus" at current 25K/year in scenario 1 and 2
SWA 2007 pay scale as shown on APC
Upgrade to Capt at 7 years
78 hours/month, as described on APC's SWA page
Fly till age 65
The results? I'm surprised by what I see:
TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:
Scenario 1: $5,728,034.00
Scenario 2: $5,861,405.84
Scenario 3: $5,535,504.00
Obviously this is not a gnat's ass accurate number, especially because of SWA's trips-for-pay system, and the fact that APC's hourly rates aren't a direct correlation...but it's as close as I could get over my lunch break.
Discuss.
SCENARIOS:
1. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and retire as an O-4 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
2. Stay in the AF, take the bonus, make O-4 and O-5 and retire as an O-5 at 20, then hired at SWA (with AF retirement pay)
3. Leave AF at 10, get hired by SWA
ASSUMPTIONS:
FY2007 USAF pay scale before taxes
BAS/BAH is the "average" BAH for FY07 plus std officer BAS
10-year UPT commitment (so age 31/32 is the "break" point)
Promotion to Maj at 10 years in scenario 1 and 2
Promotion to Lt Col at 16 years in scenario 2
Make gates to maintain ACIP at FY07 rate in scenario 1 and 2
Took "pilot bonus" at current 25K/year in scenario 1 and 2
SWA 2007 pay scale as shown on APC
Upgrade to Capt at 7 years
78 hours/month, as described on APC's SWA page
Fly till age 65
The results? I'm surprised by what I see:
TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:
Scenario 1: $5,728,034.00
Scenario 2: $5,861,405.84
Scenario 3: $5,535,504.00
Obviously this is not a gnat's ass accurate number, especially because of SWA's trips-for-pay system, and the fact that APC's hourly rates aren't a direct correlation...but it's as close as I could get over my lunch break.
Discuss.
07-16-2007, 12:27 AM
#5
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,930
Okay, here's where it starts to get interesting! I ran the same spreadsheet, this time with CAL's numbers from APC.
Assumptions this time were 757 FO to 757 CAPT, along with 72 hour min (all numbers from APC's CAL page). Doesn't include any per diem, which can obviously make a difference.
Same three scenarios, different airline:
TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:
Scenario 1: 5,046,482.00
Scenario 2: 5,179,853.84
Scenario 3: 4,607,712.00
Hmmmmm....getting much more interesting now.
Assumptions this time were 757 FO to 757 CAPT, along with 72 hour min (all numbers from APC's CAL page). Doesn't include any per diem, which can obviously make a difference.
Same three scenarios, different airline:
TOTAL AGE 32 to 65 EARNINGS:
Scenario 1: 5,046,482.00
Scenario 2: 5,179,853.84
Scenario 3: 4,607,712.00
Hmmmmm....getting much more interesting now.
07-16-2007, 03:36 AM
#6
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jan 2007
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 29
I chose to go.
Money's not everything. Have you thought about the T-6 reserve units they have at the upt bases? There's always palace chase, if they open that back up. There's also Blue to Green, that's just too funny, I couldn't resist.
I was in your shoes late last year. I graduated from pilot training just under 4 years ago, so I don't have a ton of hours either. I was having the same debate that you are now. I decided that I wanted to get out and try to move to the reserves. In mid January AFPC released an overage in my year group. The Air Force asked for volunteers to accept money to separate, and I stepped up to volunteer.
I don't think there needs to be this negative connotation to taking VSP. As far as the Air Force is concerned, you’re doing them a favor by volunteering so they don't have to RIF people.
I decided to get out mainly for family reasons. My wife has a great job here and although I don’t have any guaranteed employment, I at least have opportunities. Had I stayed in I was PCSing to T-6 UPT, my wife would have had to quit her job and she would've had great difficulty finding work in a new place. I also like the idea of living in one place, even if I have to commute. The money is a tough pill to swallow, regardless of where you make more money in the long run, it's a huge pay cut in the short term, but VSP $'s help.
My advice may not be the best, I haven't even separated yet. I don't have a reserve unit guaranteed, nor do I have a flying job (or any job for that matter) beyond my separation date lined up. It's a little scary, but I still think it's the best decision I've ever made. And that's before I heard about 365 day Iraqi UPT tours.
You are right though, you do have to make this decision now, because if you decide to get out, and if they release the numbers for it, you may not have time to think about it before someone else volunteers.
It's not just about the money. Consider all the factors. Decide whether you like the Air Force lifestyle vs. the instability of the airlines. It's tough either way. Military retirement is great, but 14 more years on active duty is a long time. Do you want to move every 3-4 years or stay put and deal with commuting. You may think your gone a lot in the military, but you'll be gone a lot in the airlines, just in shorter chunks of time.
Good luck with your decision; it's not an easy one.
I was in your shoes late last year. I graduated from pilot training just under 4 years ago, so I don't have a ton of hours either. I was having the same debate that you are now. I decided that I wanted to get out and try to move to the reserves. In mid January AFPC released an overage in my year group. The Air Force asked for volunteers to accept money to separate, and I stepped up to volunteer.
I don't think there needs to be this negative connotation to taking VSP. As far as the Air Force is concerned, you’re doing them a favor by volunteering so they don't have to RIF people.
I decided to get out mainly for family reasons. My wife has a great job here and although I don’t have any guaranteed employment, I at least have opportunities. Had I stayed in I was PCSing to T-6 UPT, my wife would have had to quit her job and she would've had great difficulty finding work in a new place. I also like the idea of living in one place, even if I have to commute. The money is a tough pill to swallow, regardless of where you make more money in the long run, it's a huge pay cut in the short term, but VSP $'s help.
My advice may not be the best, I haven't even separated yet. I don't have a reserve unit guaranteed, nor do I have a flying job (or any job for that matter) beyond my separation date lined up. It's a little scary, but I still think it's the best decision I've ever made. And that's before I heard about 365 day Iraqi UPT tours.
You are right though, you do have to make this decision now, because if you decide to get out, and if they release the numbers for it, you may not have time to think about it before someone else volunteers.
It's not just about the money. Consider all the factors. Decide whether you like the Air Force lifestyle vs. the instability of the airlines. It's tough either way. Military retirement is great, but 14 more years on active duty is a long time. Do you want to move every 3-4 years or stay put and deal with commuting. You may think your gone a lot in the military, but you'll be gone a lot in the airlines, just in shorter chunks of time.
Good luck with your decision; it's not an easy one.
07-16-2007, 03:52 AM
#7
Owner
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: TC-12B (SELRES)
Posts: 304
Hacker15e,
Wow, I am impressed at the numbers. The only thing I would like to throw in is that our 05s/04s here in Corpus are like 0 for 5 getting hired at SWA right now. I don't know if it a current (most are barely getting the 200 hr requirement) thing or not, but the folks on the Wing/CNATRA staff have not had much luck. These were mainly Navy guys that have had pretty broken flying careers. We have had some AF guys not make it either, but I think those were other issues. I just wanted to add that SWA is not a guarantee after a 20 yr stint in the military. But I was shocked when I saw those numbers. Nice work...
DT
Wow, I am impressed at the numbers. The only thing I would like to throw in is that our 05s/04s here in Corpus are like 0 for 5 getting hired at SWA right now. I don't know if it a current (most are barely getting the 200 hr requirement) thing or not, but the folks on the Wing/CNATRA staff have not had much luck. These were mainly Navy guys that have had pretty broken flying careers. We have had some AF guys not make it either, but I think those were other issues. I just wanted to add that SWA is not a guarantee after a 20 yr stint in the military. But I was shocked when I saw those numbers. Nice work...
DT
07-16-2007, 04:53 AM
#8
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 43
Couldn't agree more with Mr. Vinkir. Are you looking for the stability (predictable cash flow) of AD or the ability to live where you want and do what you want to do? Whatever you choose, make your decision asap and ACT FAST when able. If you're a good dude, there's always guard/reserve units hiring.
07-16-2007, 06:31 AM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: HMMWV in Iraq
Posts: 328
Hacker15e,
Wow, I am impressed at the numbers. The only thing I would like to throw in is that our 05s/04s here in Corpus are like 0 for 5 getting hired at SWA right now. I don't know if it a current (most are barely getting the 200 hr requirement) thing or not, but the folks on the Wing/CNATRA staff have not had much luck. These were mainly Navy guys that have had pretty broken flying careers. We have had some AF guys not make it either, but I think those were other issues. I just wanted to add that SWA is not a guarantee after a 20 yr stint in the military. But I was shocked when I saw those numbers. Nice work...
DT
Wow, I am impressed at the numbers. The only thing I would like to throw in is that our 05s/04s here in Corpus are like 0 for 5 getting hired at SWA right now. I don't know if it a current (most are barely getting the 200 hr requirement) thing or not, but the folks on the Wing/CNATRA staff have not had much luck. These were mainly Navy guys that have had pretty broken flying careers. We have had some AF guys not make it either, but I think those were other issues. I just wanted to add that SWA is not a guarantee after a 20 yr stint in the military. But I was shocked when I saw those numbers. Nice work...
DT
07-16-2007, 07:04 AM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: HMMWV in Iraq
Posts: 328
One, if the VSP is offered, no harm no foul, don't feel bad about taking it, if it positions you better for the next career and allows some stability throughout the transition.
Two, what were you thinking when you signed up in the first place? Wanting to get out to avoid a 1 year deployment, not even half way through your committment? Seriously, there are worse places to be than a flying billet overseas, even a place like Iraq. Marine pilots are regularly sent to Iraq for a year on regimental or higher staff in non-flying billets. That sucks. At least you'd still be in the cockpit. Although in fairness, I'm not sure which is actually worse, being stuck on the ground waiting to get blown up by an IED, or stuck in the air with Hadji in the cockpit.
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