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Old 02-09-2017, 03:05 AM
  #2461  
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What they are going to do with the Dulles guys is a big concern. The 700's don't appear to be leaving Mesa, since they are replacing the engines on them. But, will they go to the American side?
Sounds like things are going to happen quick though, since all the ejets are supposed to be here by the end of the year!
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Old 02-09-2017, 03:18 AM
  #2462  
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The 700s are going to Hawaii obviously
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:03 AM
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Originally Posted by airflight999
The 700s are going to Hawaii obviously
Crazy, right? It's going to be an interesting year.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:37 AM
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Here are the real numbers about upgrade.
12 new planes as long as they don't replace 700's in IAD will upgrade 120 FO's. With current attrition maybe 150 by end of 2017. The most recent upgrade award went to a 536xx number with a hire date of January 2015. His class is 3/32017. That makes the current upgrade time 2 years and 2 months. Don't be fooled by that last sentence.
Now here is the interesting part. Must read this below.
565 FO's are behind him. With these 12 additional planes as long as they don't replace any 700's the last FO to take advantage of a "fast" upgrade is a 544xx number with a hire date of July 2015 hire date. That will make his upgrade 2 years and 5 months. The rest of you behind him have long missed the fast upgrade train. Look at the seniority list yourself and try and prove me wrong.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:41 AM
  #2465  
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Seems accurate, except wouldn't 12 new airplanes only upgrade 60 FO's? (10 crews/plane, or 5 CA's/plane)
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:58 AM
  #2466  
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We can only hope people aren't blinded by their probable new claims of a quick upgrade. Anyone reading this, take notice. Almost every other regional is a better choice. Stop going to mesa.
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Old 02-09-2017, 06:58 AM
  #2467  
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Originally Posted by Duct Mon
Here are the real numbers about upgrade.
12 new planes as long as they don't replace 700's in IAD will upgrade 120 FO's. With current attrition maybe 150 by end of 2017. The most recent upgrade award went to a 536xx number with a hire date of January 2015. His class is 3/32017. That makes the current upgrade time 2 years and 2 months. Don't be fooled by that last sentence.
Now here is the interesting part. Must read this below.
565 FO's are behind him. With these 12 additional planes as long as they don't replace any 700's the last FO to take advantage of a "fast" upgrade is a 544xx number with a hire date of July 2015 hire date. That will make his upgrade 2 years and 5 months. The rest of you behind him have long missed the fast upgrade train. Look at the seniority list yourself and try and prove me wrong.
Your math and reasoning may be correct, but with bad input data.

I see last CA award as 540xx with DOH April 2015, upgrade class is March 3. His seniority number is 79x. If you take your presumed 150 numbers after that, I would think a more accurate guesstimate for the caboose of the upgrade train is about 94x on the current seniority list, which is January 2016 DOH. Works out slightly less than 2 yrs on upgrade, with assumptions that the last of the 12 new aircraft is here by the end of this year, all are additional to the fleet and not swaps, and 150 more off the list is a good number.

Either way, these new aircraft won't dramatically change the pace of upgrades from what it is now. Let's also wait to see the coming stampede of people in the front door for $22.18 per hour.
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Old 02-09-2017, 07:27 AM
  #2468  
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I keep seeing if they don't replace 700s, it won't really matter. There are guys in IAD who can upgrade but like myself we are holding out to see where the Ejets are going. I'd be close to a line holder on Ejet if I upgraded right now. If Ejets come to IAD I will be a line holder. There are guys and gals above me who would definitely push guys back if the Ejets comes anywhere near the east coast. If they put these Ejets in IAH (which they are) then I see the above scenario playing out. They come to IAD. It's going to be tricky. Mesa can not afford to just displace IAD pilots. At least a quarter of the pilots will seek other regionals. Myself included lol
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Old 02-09-2017, 07:41 AM
  #2469  
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Originally Posted by avi8tor614
I keep seeing if they don't replace 700s, it won't really matter. There are guys in IAD who can upgrade but like myself we are holding out to see where the Ejets are going. I'd be close to a line holder on Ejet if I upgraded right now. If Ejets come to IAD I will be a line holder. There are guys and gals above me who would definitely push guys back if the Ejets comes anywhere near the east coast. If they put these Ejets in IAH (which they are) then I see the above scenario playing out. They come to IAD. It's going to be tricky. Mesa can not afford to just displace IAD pilots. At least a quarter of the pilots will seek other regionals. Myself included lol
I'd say, a quarter of the IAD pilots changing airlines if they get displaced, is a VERY conservative estimate. I think it would be a lot more from what I've heard.

And agreed, Mesa can not afford to lose pilots. I'm sure JO is aware.
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:51 AM
  #2470  
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I don't see the 700's leaving Mesa. They are currently being flown to Houston to get new engines....doesn't sound like something they would do if they are going. Now, will they be transferred to the American side, who knows.
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