Yes

...filler

If I were in your seat, at your employer, with your career goals/expectations/outlook, I would certainly be concerned with cabotage/NAI/Emirates/Ethiad/pre-clearance facilities in Abu Dhabi.

However, as a single white male still riding right seat in an RJ after a decade in this game (due to no "fault" of my own), and after subsidizing the record profits of Delta and now AA/United by showing up to work as an RJ FO for my payrate all this time--well, I'm going to need more convincing that my interests are aligned with US legacies, instead of the foreign companies threatening your routes (but offering to interview/hire me/pay me a decent wage constantly, unlike your employer or any other US legacy at this time).

I'm all for solidarity with legacy pilots--but solidarity is a two-way street. If United starts hiring RJ drivers in significant quantities, or if ALPA national comes out with a firm stance that they'll never allow >age 65 to happen, or if your employer starts offering seniority numbers/guaranteed interviews to pilots at my company...maybe then I'll feel like my interests are starting to align with United's/Delta's re: NAI.

Until then, why would I donate money to ALPA PAC to protect legacy pilots from foreign competition, when legacy pilots (esp. at Delta) are making record bonuses and scoring solid pay/QOL improvements, due in part to my cheap labor subsidizing their cost structures?

Regional pilots directly subsidize the profits of legacies and the wages of legacy pilots, by providing lots of safe, cheap lift to fill up your 767/777--until there is some real movement from the regionals to the legacies, or some moves by legacy managements to address the absurd pay gap between us for doing the same exact job, I won't donate to ALPA-PAC--I'll be spending that money on interview prep/JAA books to study for interviews in the UAE--where I have an actual chance of making your wages and touching the left seat of a widebody in the next 30 years.

You're right. The way I read the original post, it was a function of longevity similar to pay rate increases.

In that case, any idea what it is in 2015?

United Considering 10-Abreast 777 Retrofits | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week

Crap like this makes me think foreign competition domestically might not be a horrible thing. The trick would be to get Emirates over but not Norwegian.

For the record I want 24/48 to be right--I want to believe that I have a real shot at United, in the USA, and that I won't get stuck in the regionals this time around b/c of some sham bankruptcy, or moves by the grandpas to jack it on up to age 67 or 70, or some sort of scope relaxation allowing for 100 seaters at regionals. Or MPL/single-pilot cargo ops. I really, really want him to be right. But my experience has kind of beaten all of that hope outta me.

Flaps, you make a lot of good points, and I certainly have not forgotten where I was almost 9 years ago as the bottom Captain on the CR2 in ATL, it sucked and I wanted out in the worst way. But then again, I don't know your personal situation and why your phone hasn't been ringing.

I do know that we are hiring 769 pilots in 2015, and that number should go higher in the years to come. We are just about done parking mainline airplanes and have a net growth of 25 airframes for mainline while UAX decreases by 63. That trend will continue as well.

While I don't have the breakdown of the backgrounds of new-hires, I do know we add 30 every other week. I've also been told that for the most part the Military pool is drying up rather quickly. I also know that from January to February my wife moved up 13 numbers on the Mesa list, so the RJ drivers are going somewhere and I bet most are going to UAL/DAL/AAG. Both AAG and DAL already have processes set up with some of their regional carriers for expedited hiring to the mainline, the effectiveness of those programs I'm not sure of, but it would not surprise me in the least if we started researching something along these lines, or better, with one of our regional partners. I say this because with the hiring numbers from all 3 major combined the regional pool will dry up rather quickly.

RE: >age 65, believe me none of us want to see that, and many of us are vocal about it. When they went from 60-65 we all felt the pain while watching those who were set to retire stick around an extra 5 years. At CAL, that mean't a lot of scabs got to play airline Captain for 5 extra years so we could listen to them ***** and moan about their double (sometimes triple) alimony payments, boat payments, vacation house payments, etc. So trust me, most of us are not in favor of raising the age, however, the Government has the final say. More specifically, the Judicial branch should this become an age discrimination argument. BTW, you can thank ICAO and many foreign carriers for letting that Camel's nose under the tent.

First off, the bold above is a bit of a reach on your part. By no means is UAX the profit generating arm of the airline. That is clearly being shown by the overall reduction of UAX feed and more block hours returning to the mainline. Sure you guys provide an element to the profits of UAL, but don't kid yourself that without you guys we wouldn't be making money. Simply put, regionals exist because years ago the same pilots pushing for the increase in retirement age decided it was okay to outsource regional jets with very loose language. The UPA, though allowed a gauge increase, put tighter restrictions and caps on outsourced flying. Additionally, the language forced growth back to the mainline requiring more pilots to be hired. So I have a tough time when regional pilots feel the need to not stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the mainline pilots when it is our code you are flying, on airplanes our management bought, in a system that is providing more and more mainline growth.

Now, your desire not to back the PAC and focus on seeking employment outside the country is certainly your right. And that may very well work out for you and your career, however, I have many friends who are tired of being treated like slaves for the Sheik. They are tired of the crap schedules, crap living conditions (nice facade, but crap utilities, etc.), and the novelty of flying a 777, etc has totally worn off to the point that they are seeking out LOR's for UAL/DAL/AAG. Not to mention that flying that type of airplane is fun for a little while, but it gets old. Hell, I'm bailing as soon as I can back to the 757/767 for the variety of international and domestic.

Anyway, good luck, and great discussion!

I would disagree that his statement is a reach. It may not be the primary profit arm but the fact is Mesa's new airplanes are owned by United and the jobs are outsourced to increase profitability. The only reason the regional airline model exists in the US is due to the unions. An Embraer is not a regional jet but it is being operated by regional airlines at the same pay scales that were paid out to 19 seat turboprop pilots twenty years ago.

This is a very good point. When I started out as a regional airline pilot there were no jets, 70% of the fleet was 19 seaters, 15% of the pilots in the US worked at "regionals" and scope clauses were in the 30 to 50 seat range. The majors were experimenting with "B scale" and retirement age was 60. The trend has been pretty steady to what it is today and there is no sign it's stopped.

Ouch! I personally think opening up the skies should be a two way thing....I would love to see more American pilots getting high paying jobs with established overseas carriers. The problem is that once we do that you'll see the regionals in the US trying to fill seats with foreign labor. The problem here is that worldwide there is a shortage of pilots and US carriers would find it very difficult to recruit foreigners at current wages. The exception would be Europe where it's even worse than in the US.

On the other hand it will good for US based flight schools which are already making tons of money training foreign airline pilots but that doesn't do pilots any good unless you want to teach Chinese kids for your career.

My point is I don't see any improvement likely and it's probably going to get worse for pilots before it gets any better but by that time we'll be down to single pilot crews with ground based active dispatchers.

How about that

Pretty exciting news! The quick upgrades will continue it looks like :)