Navmode

The most junior upgrade is 1yr 3mo; but about 40 people got skipped for either being picky with their upgrade bid or not having 1000 hours.

PilotGuy77

Omg. That's really fast. Hope people feel ready.


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RB211

It was 1 year, 3 months, 1 year, 3 months ago. Today with no new flying... 5 to 6 years...

Pilottim79

I think this is interesting. I wonder if the window has closed if it was every really open for brand new hires. I mean 60 some airplanes and add 30 plus some, how many brand new hires are going to see upgrade fast without captains being hired or retired.

Navmode

If it was every really open? I don't understand. The expansion started at the begining of last year, and the most junior upgrade was hired in September of last year. I'd say the door was definitely open. As stated, it won't be as quick for guys arriving NOW with no new flying, but who knows.

RB211

You had to be hired in 2013 for fast upgrade. The ship has sailed unless we get a lot more airplanes

prior121

While I agree with this to an extent I think you're also basing your 5 year upgrade time on the last 5 years too much. I see the upgrade time going back up to 2-3 years after the dust settles, given we get no new flying.

The reason the upgrade time was 8 years here, Republic, XJT, OO, etc was due to a multitude of factors:

9/11, age 65 rule, then the 2008 recession followed by no hiring at the majors.

Unless we see another one of the above factors, there will not be a stagnation in the left seat the next 3-5 years as we have seen the last 3-5 years.

With the hiring at the majors, LCCs and legacies to continue indefinitely, guys will continue to upgrade, get their turbine PIC and trickle out.

PilotGuy77

So if I already have 1000+ sic time the wait should be 3 or so? Trending now of course.


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FaceBiten

I had a long response drafted that I lost that basically said the same thing as you. The only thing I would change is that there are no majors that require PIC time anymore. Hell, American only requires an ATP written to be done. That wasn't by accident they dropped that off their mins. We will see a lot more FOs going to majors/LCCs than we are now in the next 2 years. I don't think majors want high time old captains, and high time old captains don't want to go to majors. The trend seems to be that they want younger, moldable, insurable, and safe pilots who aren't set in their ways. Clearly PIC is not an insurance requirement for them anymore.

Get in, and GTFO. Don't chase upgrades. Keeps the whipsaw alive. Now when the majors add PIC time back in order to cause their feed to shuffle and chase upgrades again, I'll reconsider my stance. I don't see that happening with their attrition though.

FerrisBluer

"Dear God, This Christmas season I am sooo thankful that there are so many life coaches for me on the forumboards."