flapshalfspeed

Aviation career decisions should be made with a probabilistic mindset.

Contract terms, payrates, and domiciles at a particular carrier cannot be viewed as "fixed." They must be viewed in context of the probability they will continue at those existing levels.

A carrier full of 50-seaters with a top-heavy seniority list, top notch payrates, and top-notch contract terms has a very high probability of losing airplanes, flying and/or entering a sham bankruptcy to weasel out of contract provisions/payrates. A shiny contract with great payrates means nothing if the probability of losing it all in the next few years is very high.

Mesa's contract/terms can't go any lower. Our average seniority on property is dropping like a rock as we staff up for the EJets.

At the same time, Mesa is probably entering the plateau phase of all of this growth, and without more growth or attrition, the probability of a quick upgrade is quickly declining, and I think we'll eventually see some people jumping ship for Compass/PSA from the bottom of the list as we near the end of our current growth spurt.

Humans are rational actors--when the probability of upgrade and/or being based in one's hometown, in combination with our current contract/pay starts to be lower than that package at other carriers, we'll lose pilots and/or fail to fill classes. Unfortunately, that reality will probably sink in well after we're fully staffed for the near-term future.

Given all of that, without further growth or unless no one shows up to our last few classes this year, I don't see us getting a new contract anytime soon. The company simply has no reason to agree to anything right now.

deltajuliet

JO admitted in a recent new-hire luncheon he'd have to offer more attractive FO rates IF the upgrade wasn't so quick. I don't know if he was pandering to the new-hires or being realistic about what it'd take to get more people in the door if upgrades slowed, but I'm sure he'd love to keep this expansion-with-low-labor-costs thing going for as long as possible. And that's the irony - once labor costs go up flying goes away.

Kprc1

My opinion. Talk about this quick up grade is not gonna happen. It's JO'sway of attracting pilots because the pay is the lowest in the industry.

prior121

Huh?

Most junior CRJ CA- 4/2013 Hire
Most junior E175 CA- 4/2013 Hire (November award)

ScottyDo

Yea I was just about to say that lol. You get my message Prior?

skydrifter

So at what hire date will the right seat lock begin? JO says we need 1050 pilots with the growth he has signed on for at this time....so 525 Capitains. We are close to 900 total pilots including trainees..so around 425 Capitains at this time. So logic suggest 100 more quick upgrades over the next 18 months, the rest will be replacements for those moving on or retiring. I really don't think we will get the second bunch (30) of E-jets

Kprc1

That's what the upgrade looks like today. That does NOT mean anyone getting hired within the last few classes will have a quick upgrade. All I'm saying is we are fat on FO's right now. The attrition rate is low and so are the classes for upgrade.

Xdashdriver

Junior EJET award is 2/08 still, but the gap is narrowing. Only 40 or so numbers between the CRJ and EJET. December class looks like it would have a couple 4/13 upgrades in the EJET and the gap will be pretty much gone then.

pagey

PSA had a 9/13 hire in the most recent award 2 weeks ago.

prior121

Maybe you should work on your grammar then brah. Cuz that's not what your post implied. Re-read it buddy.