winglet

Ha,

I'm the last one to think they know what they are doing. Remember, I had a front row seat to everything you saw from a distance. I've watched them slowly pi$$ away $300 million that they could have invested in quality. I'm just trying to figure out what they're up to now. I along with many over here hope that there is a management change involved.

winglet

eaglefly

It's tough to be a player in the feeder market when no one wants your services. Additionally, there's too many players as it is.

DAL will dump Mesa eventually regardless of whether a new management team is put in place........Mesa's already wee-wee'd in their wheaties and are costing them time and trouble. You can't poke a major in the eye and expect not to be shown the door.........permanently.

UAL is unlikely to welcome them back for the same reasons aside from all the current feeders that still are too many. They already have a bad taste in their mouths as it is...........and enough trouble staying solvent on their own.

U MIGHT retain some feed from Mesa, but more than likely a shell of their current flying and only larger RJ's................maybe.

AA and CAL...............forget it. AA might only use Mesa in the future as a whipsaw tool by accepting a bid and then letting Mesa whittle down the cost and then going with the cheapest OTHER carrier.........that is if Mesa even survives.

Out of 130 aircraft, it would seem the best case scenario if Mesa were to come out "lean and mean" would be perhaps 25 aircraft or so. It would be lean insofar as existance and mean with regard to any surviving employees. I would think if you're not in the top 25% of seniority there, you're toast and the bottom half of that 25% would be back to F/O. Of course, that assumes OJ doesn't furlough out of seniority by fleet type.

This situtation is extremely downside-heavy for Mesa pilots.

winglet

Mesa has 38 CRJ900's and 20 CRJ700's right now. It's the 36 ERJ's, 48 CRJ200's, 16 Dash 8's and 20 BE-1900D's that are killing them. Mesa's plan probably involves keeping the 700's and 900's only. That's 58 aircraft. The creditors might have different ideas.

winglet

eaglefly

How many pilots on the property (not including furlough) ?

winglet

1065 Active
233 Furloughed

eaglefly

So almost half would seem to be in trouble, with the bottom half remaining looking at an F/O slot.............that would be the majority that would be seriously affected.

I guess you can hope for a hail mary, but prudence would dictate that come sometime this summer, a vacation may be longer then previously anticipated.

If I were a Mesa pilot, I'd plan like unemployment was imminent.

seafeye

What i can see happening is that the companies (GE, Bombardier, Emb)that own the CRJ's/ERJ's are going to be forced to renegotiate the leases at a reduced rate. This is bad news for everyone because it will allow Mesa management to once again undercut everyone else. What does this mean to a non-mesa pilot? Where do you think your managment is going to look when they need to cut costs and match Mesa?
Chapter 11 will help Mesa lower their costs and make everyone else more expensive.
Does GE, Bombardier, Emb have to renegotiate? No, but really what choice will they have. Get some payment for the 50 seaters or no payment at all. I don't expect Mesa to shrink its size to levels that others say only because the 50 seaters aren't going anywhere.

What we can hope for is that the creditors have other takers for the airplanes and force Mesa into Chapter 7. But I don't see that happening.

PSACFI

I guess the wild card here would be if someone like Skywest came in and offered a better lease rates to the creditors than Mesa could afford to pay.

eaglefly

This is hypothisis at best.

I think regardless of what occurs, Mesa has little future in the U.S. feed business. In order for Mesa to be a supposed model to leverage everyone else down, they'd actually have to be a company that these majors would truly consider using. They wouldn't make a very good tool for bluffing and they certainly wouldn't be reinvited to start the same old disaster most of them are attmpting to rid themselves of.

Mesa is a declining interest at every sinlge major airline its ever been affiliated with, with the possible exception of U and even that is limited.

eaglefly

Good way to:

A. Eliminate some competition

and

B. Get your foot farther in the door.


.............at the same time.