winglet

Releasemaster,

I agree. MAG will have to convince the creditors that they are worth more reorganized than liquidated. That's the definition of viable (financially sustainable).

Considering nobody else wants 50 seaters either, MAG is probably worth more as an operator of a fleet of CRJ700/900's under contract. We'll find out when the reorganization plan and financials are eventually exposed.

That brings up another issue that "The Duke" mentioned. If Mesa does successfully reorganize, is the plan to immediately be purchased? If it survives this it will emerge as a cheap operating certificate full of desirable aircraft.

winglet

p.s. More Fuel Please .

iPilot

Perhaps the creditor's goal in the Delta lawsuit is to force them to settle and then use that money for liquidation. If you think about it, even if Mesa restructures with just the 700/900s, they still face the fact that none of their major partners want anything to do with them. They'd be right back in bankruptcy after spending what little money they get from Delta and out of restructuring and be right back in the same spot.

I suppose the question is what are the chances that United, Delta, and USAir would turn around after this bankruptcy and sign up for another 10 year CPA? Granted they could emerge with an entirely different management team and for all intensive purposes be a completely new company. I know I'd be hard pressed to do business with them again.

NightHawk

The unted contract for the 700's goes to 2018, so OK 8 years. The Us airways contract does end in 2012 but remember it is 38 900s. I don't think US Airways would want to disrupt that in any way. Too much money at stake even if they gave them to somebody else, the amount of time it would take to qualify that many pilots on it would be huge. 700's and 900's won't be sitting on the ground anywhere only fifty seaters, it's just a matter of when and how many. It doesn't matter who likes mesa or not, it's simple economics.

flycrj200

I don't think we have a shortage of CRJ pilots here in the US. Many of us furloughed pilots are qualified to fly the CRJ 200-700-900.

fxn2fly

I believe all of mesa's contracts are now up in the air including Delta's. Thats why mesa wants to dump so many aircraft leases. These Airlines are now working to replace mesa. It just will take time to figure out what they need and take bids.

winglet

fxn2fly,

I will agree that anything is possible in bankruptcy court and that we will see many changes by the time this is over but I suggest reading this thread from the beginning for a better understanding.

Mesa is currently involved in Chapter 11 reorganization. All contracts are under a stay during the proceedings. The stay effectively freezes everything at the moment bankruptcy was declared (January 5th).

United: The contracts for the CRJ-200's and Dash-8's at United are terminating in April. The contract on the 20 CRJ-700's is through 2018. There exists litigation between United and Mesa regarding the option of adding 10 more 700's.

US Airways: The contract ends in 2012. The contract includes reducing the CRJ-200's over time but not the 38 CRJ-900's or 6 Dash-8's.

Delta: The contract is under an injunction in district court to continue operations with the ERJ's. There exists litigation between Delta and Mesa regarding cancelling this contract. Mesa has submitted a motion to transfer this case from the district court in Atlanta to the Bankruptcy court in New York and assume the contract (continue with the original 2005 contract).

winglet

SrfNFly227

Qualified or not, you would have to go through training as if you had never flown the airplane. Training takes time.

Winglet, I would like to thank you for all the information you have posted as well. I believe you have a lot of people reading this thread that are not posting. Your posts are the main reason for that. Thank you

winglet

iPilot,

That's what I'm talkin' about! Yeah!

winglet

winglet

iPilot,

Considering the Co-Chair of the Unsecured Creditor's Committee is MAG ALPA I don't think this scenario would happen easily. Maybe if each pilot got a lump sum payoff . There is pressure on Delta from the Creditors and Mesa now for an assumption or a settlement. See post #237.

It is a common misconception that Mesa won't have any revenue as a stand-alone CRJ 700/900 operation. Those existing contracts are very lucrative. It is the 50 seaters and a series of bone-headed management moves (Hawaii, China, Quality Control and associated United, Delta litigation, Etc.) that have been draining the piggy bank. If Mesa Management can stay out of litigation and just reinvest existing revenue into a quality MAG then Mesa would thrive. Is the current management capable of this?

winglet

eaglefly

Lets say for arguments sake Mesa gets all their desires in this process and ends up dumping all the garbage produced by their recklessness and incompetance on others, including some financial settlement from DAL.

That would seem to leave 20 UAL jets that have 8 more years and 38 U jets lasting 2 years. From a pilots standpoint, that would seem to pin their hopes on 100 jobs for UAL and 400 for U. Regardless of how "lean" this carrier becomes out of the Chapter 11 process, their name is mud among the majors (most of which they've permanently alienated). Why would UAL or DAL jump back into bed with them.....................ever !

The other carriers must realize the stupidity of hitching their cart to a horse that blows a lot of gas and won't go where it's told, so I would think you could write AA and CAL off and for that matter any LLC. The only exception is U.

So it would seem that the best Mesa pilots could hope for would be 200 jobs for UAL which would likely never increase. That would make Eagle's upgrade time look good. Fine for those 100 captains (at least for 8 years, unless UAL goes to BK in the future), but what F/O would tolerate Mesa if they effectively would NEVER upgrade ?

If U's contract is up in two years, that would leave Parker to decide if it's worth signing another contract with a company of Mesa's rep and shooting craps with getting embroiled all over again down the road in Mesa Chapter 11/7 2.0. Since there's an abundance of feed opportunities out there, why not cut clean and anchor your house (especially as shaky as theirs) with a better cement ?

Regardless of how Mesa would attempt to trumpet its new low-debt, "lean and mean" company, they're still an untrustworthy high-risk and potential liability down the road. I could understand some major carriers considering it if feed (pilots, aircraft) were scarce, but there's a glut right now (even at U). Mesa could market themselves as the cheapest thing since unsliced bread, but that's what they were BEFORE this mess and it's proven to be a faliure.

It seems possible that in 2013, Mesa might be a 20 RJ albatross that operates for UAL as an afterthought, unless U falls for the same old song and dance and keeps the 38, let alone increases them. Mesa may muddle along, but I don't see much long-term postive outlook for current and future pilots here. The odds are strong in favor of gradual vaporization, rather then acceptance, growth and advancement.