winglet

The US Airways Dash-8's were still under contract when the Bankruptcy proceedings commenced, so it's anybody's guess. There is sure to be a lot of "airframe juggling" to be done in the future.

winglet

winglet

Sorry iPilot,

Things aren't that rosy overseas anymore either:

Eurowings axing hundreds of jobs to focus on CRJ 900 January 19, 2010

winglet

iPilot

Hah well fair enough. I suppose in the end there's always the recycling of all that high-grade aluminum, copper, gold, and other metals.

winglet

Yes, and Bombardier will need all that aluminum for their new Canadian Government subsidized stretched CSeries aircraft.

Key Word: subsidized

Bombardier CSeries Rumours Flying High The Gazette, Montreal, January 7, 2010

winglet

dashtrash300

Or they could just let Piedmont fly the 16 Dash 8s instead of keeping Mesa around to fly 6 of them. That would be good for everyone. At least everyone at Piedmont

The Duke

My wild prediction: Mesa will be bought out by Republic upon exit from Chapter 11. Why?

Streamlined product with just CRJ 700's and 900s...

A few operating certificates for Republic...

Access to the west coast for Republic largely out of PHX/LAS flying...

Enhanced relationship with Bombardier for Republic, which would be good considering the very public comments by their(Republic's) CEO regarding the Bomba C-Series aircraft...

Restructured/minimized debt and elimination of, at the very least, all 50 seat aircraft on the Mesa side of the house...

Finishes off what has already begun with the Go!/Mokulele joint venture in Hawaii...

Bolsters existing relationship between US Airways and Republic...

Would increase Republic's stock price, keeping the CEO, investors, and airline analysts happy...

Mesa's options are dwindling. Essentially down to one existing code-share agreement remaining with Airways, which is up for renewal in 2012 anyways. Delta and United are probably toast in terms of continuing their business relationships with Mesa. Why would anyone put all their eggs in one basket betting on a renewal of the Airways contract? Airways and its subsidiaries may be gone by that point anyways...

The question I have to ask: How would Mesa's CEO benefit from being bought or remaining independent? What does he have to gain or lose depending on which scenario may play out here?

rickair7777

Sound reasoning, but OJ will fight tooth and nail to avoid such a scenario...he is considered a turd industry-wide IMO and his only future lays with mesa. I'm hoping the creditors and the court will see the light of day and stipulate that mesa's leadership has to go.

It is fairly well known that SKW will not buy mesa intact, even though they obviously could. They don't want to deal with the corporate culture and the headaches associated with fixing it.

iPilot

I would be very surprised with any merger. If anything it would be a partial liquidation a la Chrysler in which almost all of the former company's liabilities are left behind and only the good parts continue. But then again Chrysler is a valuable brand. Mesa has no brand and so it would probably be a liquidation in which the airplanes and equipment get bought by the likes of SKW, Republic, XJT, etc. and the rest gets left at the auctioning block. It's easy to replace Mesa's current contracts.

The one thing that Mesa has as far as a brand is Go! which could be sold off to some entity as a separate unit. Again its kind of like the Chrysler bankruptcy in which its sold off leaving everything else behind.

Boomer

Don't you mean straight back to the trash heap?

The Duke

Doesn't have to be a merger, could be an acquisition for all we know.

Mesa would have been a great deal before, but they held way too much debt. That debt liability will largely go away with Chapter 11, resulting in a much more enticing asset.

Mokulele/REPUBLIC has already made their first move in Hawaii with Go! In the movies, this is often referred to as Forshadowing. I believe it could be a sign of things to come.

Mesa's CEO and others on the 11th floor see that the sun is setting. No amount of fight or ego at this point will win this battle. They are realists and they see things for what they are. They are also VERY forward-thinking. They can be incredibly short-sighted, but they are VERY capable of looking well down the road and making business decisions today based on strong foresight. Ironically, that's part of the reason Mesa's in the situation that they're in today. Hawaii and China were creative ways of finding a home for excess 50 seaters that burn through profits half-way through their flights. They weren't reacting, they were attempting to be proactive to mitigate future risk. Now they are aging, they are thinking about retirement, worried about preserving a way of life that they have come to know. I can't imagine that a liquidation would be beneficial. So what would their best option be? What would you do?

I am excited to see what happens, regardless of the outcome. This is life in the airlines. Either get used to this or get out all together.