pilotrob23

ya, freedom is done next week. Wondering if his position is part of a bigger story. Im hearing mesa hasnt even announced his departure yet. Everyone is just trying to see what is going on here!? Like i said earlier, time will tell. And love the rumors. Havent heard much from psa, and their 900 rates. Who knows

SpiraMirabilis

It doesn't make money sense, at least not until the general public sees what plan of reorganization Mesa submits. If it is really poor, then Skywest can submit one of their own as well which might involve either a regular acquisition (minus assets that have been discharged in BK) or a liquidation and purchase / lease of some or all of the assets.

Skywest would like to purchase other regional airlines because they're purchasing the business relationships and the rest of the term of the CPA that the bought airline has. Mesa's CPA with United is small now that there is no -200s and their CPA with Cactus is, unless renogiated, going to expire relatively soon.

All these things says that people are probably looking to acquire Mesa but they're going to wait until it either goes under altogether (its POR submitted is crap) and then purchase assets, or wait for it to pull through and renew its CPAs and then buy it and along with it a new longterm CPA with USAir.

But this is all just my opinion. I am no expert on the matter. Maybe my analysis is FOS, if you think so please lemme know.

pilotrob23

nope. Sounds good. So many possibilities, these sound most likely. Time will tell. I will say this, jo isnt just sitn back. I wouldnt be surprised to c somethn crazy happen. He may not b liked by many, but he may be looking at some interesting opportunities 4 mesa. C what happens

hslightnin

Last revenue flight is MDT-DTW on the 31st. Then the remaining planes repoed to BNA 31st evening.

winglet

SpiraMirabilis,

The exclusivity period does not preclude any offers of merger or acquisition. The exclusivity period only protects MAG's right to submit a POR prior to other parties. A POR can include any and every imaginable scenario.

Example: Company A states that they will merge with company B if and when company B exits from bankruptcy and meets certain requirements. If the majority of parties involved agree to this arrangement then the court will approve the POR with stipulations.

It is very common for merger/acquisition agreements to be struck prior to a POR being submitted. It's called the "White Knight" scenario. MAG's tenacious management may be hesitant to submit a POR with a "White Knight" scenario because it would probably involve their exit. In that event you may be correct in that we will have to wait until the exclusivity period expires to see a POR with a merger or acquisition offer.

In these days of airline consolidation I'm sure there are a number of companies that would like to merge with a cheap, contracted, debt free, 64/86 seat airline .

winglet

seafeye

How do you figure debt free? Bk just allowed you to disregard your current agreements for the time being. Mesa will still owe money. We just don't know how much the bk judge is going to let them weasel out of. If the debt is too large and or they don't get a new us airways contract, it will be liquidation time. Who will merge with Mesa if they don't get a us airways contract in the deal? And then if Mesa sells their soul for a new deal, who would want that?
I don't think Mesa is going to be merging with anyone.

SpiraMirabilis

Fixed for you. But thanks for the correction.

SpiraMirabilis

Upon a successful exit from bankruptcy new stock is issued and creditors are "paid" with that, so most debt is discharged that way. Also most of Mesa's debt is secured debt from aircraft leases and mortgages and Mesa is abandoning these aircraft. Winglet can correct me if I am wrong.

seafeye

Your right, they can get paid via the new stock. But say Ratheon for example, files a claim. It can be paid with the new stock, or cash. If Raytheon didn't want stock they could file a ____ (I forget the name of the form) but they can file this and request a different settlement. They could even get paid cash based on future earnings.
Long and short is that we won't know Mesa's future till we see the exit plan. Of course J.O. could have 5 ready made plans just waiting to get submitted.

pilotrob23

and i would say he does!