Purpleanga

Mesa's had dark clouds on the horizon since early last year.

Purpleanga

I believe 2012. They still have a few years to go.

Intl Jumper

My friend over at that airline told me you chief pilot is sending you emails keeping you guys posted. I thought it was supposed to be Wednesday that there was a big announcement. Im pulling for you gets to get some more block hours!

JoeyMeatballs

I am actually him , I they banned me with that screename though

Squawk_5543

I don't think it's gonna make it that long.

flyboyzz1

Couple people in the know at SKYW have stated that XJT will announce something very soon saying they got the flying. Skyw will not be getting any additional UEX flying.



Hope you guys open a ORD base so the fish can smell his paws sitting at home

cybourg10

What?..........................

cybourg10

I guess no announcement today...............

waflyboy

uhhhh.... what?

The Duke

Frankly, I can't remember a time I've been at Mesa where there haven't been dark clouds on the horizon. This is certainly the toughest time we've faced since I've been here, that much can be said.

Let's look at the facts here in terms of fleet numbers @ Mesa. The emphasis here is on the notion that CRJ 200s are no longer in demand and that regional carriers need to creatively shed these airframes. Mesa has a total of 56 CRJ 200s and a combined total of 56 CRJ 700/900s on property. That is a 1:1 ratio of CRJ 200s to 700s and 900s.

To put it in perspective, let's compare to SkyWest and ASA, part of the SkyWest family of regional feed. SkyWest has 140 CRJ 200s and a combined total of just over 80 CRJ 700/900s. Not a 1:1 swap. ASA has 110 CRJ 200s and around 40 combined 700/900s. Combined between the two companies that's 250 CRJ 200s and around 120 or so CRJ 700/900s. About a 2:1 ratio. Will SkyWest realistically sustain their operation using 250 CRJ 200s? Probably not. This number will need to come down drastically over time.

What's going on at Mesa is a preview of what is to come for other carriers. SkyWest, despite their large quantity of 200s, is a much better managed company than Mesa. They saved their money wisely and made good decisions; most importantly, they didn't squander their money in Hawaii with an unethical/illegal business practice. Imagine if Mesa hadn't squandered that money, where would we be today? SkyWest essentially bought their continued codeshare with UAL. United received in the vicinity of $130 million dollars from SkyWest, essentially a very short-term life preserver for a company that is bleeding money like a fire hose w/ no end in sight. This was a killer deal for SkyWest, a win/win. Eleven percent interest on the loan and the ability to dictate who gets the United flying. Meanwhile Mesa is out of the running for that flying and UAL furloughs more mainline pilots and transitions this flying to SkyWest and ASA.

We're obviously in survival mode @ Mesa. We need to make it through this downturn. If we do, we'll be in good shape. On the other hand, if we go down, it could prove to be an enormous opportunity for a carrier like SkyWest to move in and take over what would have been our flying. Much of this could be covered by flying 700/900s, which would help somewhat offset the pain associated w/ declining CRJ 200 flying @ SkyWest.

The other big-picture issue is what would happen to carriers who feed for United if UAL should go under? Particularly carriers such as SkyWest or Republic who are heavily invested in United codeshare flying.