Originally Posted by backtoregionals

Here’s the answer to the thread title....

NOT ANYTIME SOON, if ever. Around 530 pilots are getting WARN letters. This is only the beginning. They could easily send out more WARN letters each month. NOBODY is safe in this industry right now.

Originally Posted by coodrough568

they always send more WARN notices than actual furloughs. It’s just covering themselves in case it’s actually needed. Rough math from what other companies have done shows that typical furlough numbers are somewhere between 60-62% of the WARN notices sent out

Originally Posted by coodrough568

they always send more WARN notices than actual furloughs. It’s just covering themselves in case it’s actually needed. Rough math from what other companies have done shows that typical furlough numbers are somewhere between 60-62% of the WARN notices sent out

Originally Posted by boxthrower

Not true. Republic didn’t even bother sending WARN notices they just went straight to the furlough letters. PSA originally sent 600, planned on 530 furloughs and now they’re up to 730 furloughs. Expressjet sent one to the entire company and now they’re done. I wouldn’t follow that logic right now.

Originally Posted by coodrough568

Republic combined both together, maybe to save money on the first class mail. Also I did not say “it’s guaranteed that 60-62% of WARN recipients are furloughed.” I said that was rough math, based off observations from other airlines. It’s really just a guess, every airline is in deep **** right now. It looks pretty safe to assume a MINIMUM furlough of 20% at every airline that is still standing when this is done.

Originally Posted by boxthrower

Well so far it’s 37% at Republic (they did send 933 furlough notices via certified mail, not just email), 35% at PSA, 100% at expressjet, one third of pilots at United, 100% at TSA and Compass (even though that writing was pretty much already on the wall). I’d say the average is going to be a lot higher than 20%

Originally Posted by point80

As of right now this is where Mesa stands.

They currently are not hiring. They are however building a pool of qualified ATP licensed candidates. Rumors from the school house are that they are planning on bringing back the furloughed training classes (end aug/sep). Those furloughed classes will have to start from day 1 and sign a new contract that will contain No Bonus.

The AA side of Mesa is really hurting. The Ejet side however is alive and well. Even though people will grumble about flying only 65ish hr lines. Thats more of a systematic problem bc how the routes are built and keeping more people current. I believe for Aug that only the bottom 40-50ish FOs in IAH didnt have lines and they had FAs base assisting IAH all month.

As far as the 550s are concerned the rumor didnt come out of thin air. It started with a Q2 earnings call back in May, followed by a town hall meeting. In the Q2 A bank analyst for a large investor of Mesa asked the question if Mesa was capable of taking on the 550 flying if UA wanted or if the current Express carrier couldnt take on the flying. He answered by stating, we all know who that carrier is and how much they are struggling since covid. If they are unable to take deliver of a/c we are capable of doing the flying ourselves IF (big if) UA wants.

In the follow up town hall JO brought it up again and mentioned that there is a possibility of Mesa to open bases in ORD and EWR in 2021. That these bases IF (big if) were opened they would be manned by the 550s.

Now the rumors flying out of the glass palace in PHX are that JO had offered UA to do the conversions of the 700s to 550s himself with no cost to UA in exchange for UA giving us that flying. Remember those 700s belong to Mesa, not UA. JO can do as he pleases with them. With Mesa already having a current pilot group, fleet, and maintenance it is a relatively easy flow and makes more sense YV, not AWAC, to fly gojets planes IF (big if) gojet were to fold. JO will also under cut any offer AWAC makes to UA. Say what you want about cockroaches, they survive nuclear holocausts.

As far as furloughs are concerned I dont know how the CRJ guys feel bc of the AA contract is almost up and fear of not being renewed are there. Even though it seems like it will but at a smaller fleet size. But the EJET guys arent even thinking furlough. You just dont get that scents in the air.

People will talk **** about Mesa but at the end of the day we will survive, probably not furlough, and possibly expand. I rather be getting paid less and doing what I love than be standing in the unemployed line losing my house. And those same people will be dropping their airline apps in praying Mesa answers those prayers.

I expect us to get an update during Q3 earnings call on Aug 10th. I suggest you listen in bc some info will probably break.

Originally Posted by Scrapdaddy

I hope this is a mistake.You guys actually allow furloughing specific fleets instead of furloughing In reverse seniority company wide?