Carl Spackler

It's not speculative wiggy. Retirements are what they are. They are precisely defined and quantifiable. One of the few things that are.

If our guys raised the statistical age from 62.4 to age 65, the numbers look exactly the same. Maybe they should have done that so nobody could use the term speculation when it comes to retirement.

Carl

Cogf16

I lose 9% with NWALPA's and gain 1% with DALPA! Fair

acl65pilot

Depends on how you define fair.

tsquare

Exactly Carl.. and the only quantifiable defineable retirement age is 65... 62.4 is a pipe dream.

Carl Spackler

That's fine tsquare. If your guys actually try to make that arguement during their rebuttal case, our guys will run the program again with an age 65 attrition, and the charts will look almost exactly the same. If we add 2.6 years to the current NWA proposed fence, the charts will look exactly the same. That's why I use the term "statistical certainty."

Our guys will have to preface the age 65 assumption as totally inaccurate and done only for demonstration purposes. No serious person could possibly claim that all pilots will work until 65. There are too many life insurance actuarial experts available to completely refute such a claim.

Carl

CVG767A

I'm thinking that a lot of green book guys are going to (a) finally be able to hold 747 captain, and (b) be based in ATL (way closer to home for many of them). Why would they retire early. I wouldn't if I were in their position.

Carl Spackler

Finally? The top 30% of the current 747 list are all green book. Hundreds more have retired as Captains on the 747 since the merger, despite REP bringing zero 747's to the merger.

That may be right. Of the six DTW 747 guys that are retiring this month, only 1 is REP, the rest are NWA.

Carl

B7ER Guy

Its always fun to run numbers and make them skew in your direction Carl. Especially when nobody is there to correct them

Denny Crane

Carl,

You are right, no one can possibly claim that all pilots will work until age 65. But all the assumptions as to why guys will not go to age 65 apply to each pilot group and hence, in my mind, cancel each other out.

IMO, the only variable is early retirements and nobody knows how many, on either side, will take that option. I know your argument is that guys will loose retirement if they go beyond 60. Who knows what motivates people, whether they are independantly wealthy, have 3 ex-wives, are concerned about healthcare costs, or they just love this job, the only constant is age 65 now.

I posted in another thread a comparison of retirements based on age 65. I know our numbers are correct and if Super posted correct numbers, our retirements are just not that different (204 thru 2018) and, in any case, are made up very quickly and then favor the NW guys pretty heavily.

I didn't realize it until I crunched the numbers, that there really is not that much difference, based on age 65 and, after doing it, I can see why your merger committee proposed only a 10 year fence and not a 20 year fence like the previous Roberts award. I believe I remember, from a previous post, you were OK with a longer fence, I don't think your junior guys feel the same way!!!!

Have we talked about this before?! Must be the Mad Cow kicking in!!!!

Denny

Hawaii50

Thanks for running the numbers. A 10 year fence would be the ultimate kick in the crotch to the DL guys. It would allow the NW guys to take full advantage of their marginally higher retirements early on then be on equal footing when DL retires hundreds more a year. You'd have to go to 20+ years and we've seen how that fosters group unity. DOH with a 10 year fence is about as bad a deal for DL guys as any proposal could have been IMO. A dynamic list that would allow each side to reap the benfits of the equipment they bring and retirements would be great but way too complex. My guess, we'll see a ratioed list pretty close to what was shot down in the Spring with some 3 year fences. All but the most senior will take a hit of some form or another (they'll still whine) and we'll move on to hopefully a more stable career.