VA Weighs Sale After Receiving Interest
03-25-2016, 08:58 AM
#72
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Certainly not an expert, but it seems airlines that merge have fewer overlapping routes. The whole point is to expand, not just add frequency?? Other than Hawaii, Jblu and VX walk all over each other.
Personally my money is on HAL, maybe an attempt by a legacy or another investor. I highly doubt Spirit or Frontier.
I'm also wondering if the headlines were more for a stock pump than anything? They've been pretty flat since IPO.
It's all fun and games.. .
Personally my money is on HAL, maybe an attempt by a legacy or another investor. I highly doubt Spirit or Frontier.
I'm also wondering if the headlines were more for a stock pump than anything? They've been pretty flat since IPO.
It's all fun and games.. .
I'm starting to buy that this was more of a 'plant' by one or more of the major investors to pump the stock price. I pulled up some SEC filings from Cyrus Capital and it looks like they're pretty far under water on their VX investment ... they'd need something like high 40s/share to break even.
03-25-2016, 09:08 AM
#73
Banned
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: 7th green
Posts: 4,378
JB's model is closer to VA's model than Spirit's. The JB-VA merger makes a lot more sense since the route structures are complementary and VA does not have a large presence out of JFK beyond the transcon flights to Cali.
I highly doubt any Legacy would get a crack at VA given the current regulatory environment. JB+VA makes sense on many levels.
I highly doubt any Legacy would get a crack at VA given the current regulatory environment. JB+VA makes sense on many levels.
03-25-2016, 10:00 AM
#74
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Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Airplane
Posts: 2,385
I'm starting to buy that this was more of a 'plant' by one or more of the major investors to pump the stock price. I pulled up some SEC filings from Cyrus Capital and it looks like they're pretty far under water on their VX investment ... they'd need something like high 40s/share to break even.
If I see a story from a respected aviation writer, WSJ or CNBC I'm more inclined to believe it than something coming from Seeking Alpha, The Street or The Motley Fool.
03-25-2016, 10:49 AM
#76
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Joined APC: Jan 2013
Position: Pitot heat, what's to eat?
Posts: 392
By no means am I any kind of market expert, but the thought occurs to me that if VX management was serious about finding a buyer they would want to keep it quiet so that the buyer would be more tempted by a low stock price (good investment).
If their goal was simply to create value for their current shareholders via pump and dump they would do exactly what they are doing, which is put out vague press releases implying big deals in the works. Sounds good for them but most people serious about making money buying or merging airlines don't do it by buying high.
If their goal was simply to create value for their current shareholders via pump and dump they would do exactly what they are doing, which is put out vague press releases implying big deals in the works. Sounds good for them but most people serious about making money buying or merging airlines don't do it by buying high.
03-25-2016, 11:00 AM
#77
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Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Airplane
Posts: 2,385
What's your take on this article?
Benzinga - Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight
Benzinga - Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight
Secondly, US Global Jets ETF declares no shares of Virgin America, so there's no uptick in the value of the ETF for pumping VA. In fact, the opposite is true as they are heavy into $LUV.
Finally, I know the argument against SWA purchasing an Airbus operator, but I don't think that's a block. In fact, in light of Russia decertifying the 737, even momentarily just recently it shows a weakness or over reliance on a single type. An over reliance that may come as a bit of a roadblock to an airline as large and with as much ambition as SWA.
Again, I'm not saying SWA is going to purchase VA (in fact I don't think that's likely at all, I'm not sure there's much that VA offers SWA), but I don't think it's far fetched to think that SWA wouldn't purchase an airline just because it's all Airbus.
I think the overseas investor or hedge fund is the most likely, if any suitor for part of VA.
03-25-2016, 11:23 AM
#78
Moderator
Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,964
Three things, Benzinga falls into the same category as Seeking Alpha.
Secondly, US Global Jets ETF declares no shares of Virgin America, so there's no uptick in the value of the ETF for pumping VA. In fact, the opposite is true as they are heavy into $LUV.
Finally, I know the argument against SWA purchasing an Airbus operator, but I don't think that's a block. In fact, in light of Russia decertifying the 737, even momentarily just recently it shows a weakness or over reliance on a single type. An over reliance that may come as a bit of a roadblock to an airline as large and with as much ambition as SWA.
Again, I'm not saying SWA is going to purchase VA (in fact I don't think that's likely at all, I'm not sure there's much that VA offers SWA), but I don't think it's far fetched to think that SWA wouldn't purchase an airline just because it's all Airbus.
I think the overseas investor or hedge fund is the most likely, if any suitor for part of VA.
Secondly, US Global Jets ETF declares no shares of Virgin America, so there's no uptick in the value of the ETF for pumping VA. In fact, the opposite is true as they are heavy into $LUV.
Finally, I know the argument against SWA purchasing an Airbus operator, but I don't think that's a block. In fact, in light of Russia decertifying the 737, even momentarily just recently it shows a weakness or over reliance on a single type. An over reliance that may come as a bit of a roadblock to an airline as large and with as much ambition as SWA.
Again, I'm not saying SWA is going to purchase VA (in fact I don't think that's likely at all, I'm not sure there's much that VA offers SWA), but I don't think it's far fetched to think that SWA wouldn't purchase an airline just because it's all Airbus.
I think the overseas investor or hedge fund is the most likely, if any suitor for part of VA.
Remember that SWA was outbid (or at least bid for) Frontier.
03-25-2016, 01:53 PM
#79
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Posts: 205
I'm guessing this is probably what is happening. With the proliferation of independent contributor, crowd sourced investment sites, it's become more common to run these sorts of stories with "unnamed sources" to pump and dump a stock or influence the retail investment market.
If I see a story from a respected aviation writer, WSJ or CNBC I'm more inclined to believe it than something coming from Seeking Alpha, The Street or The Motley Fool.
If I see a story from a respected aviation writer, WSJ or CNBC I'm more inclined to believe it than something coming from Seeking Alpha, The Street or The Motley Fool.
03-25-2016, 01:56 PM
#80
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Three things, Benzinga falls into the same category as Seeking Alpha.
Secondly, US Global Jets ETF declares no shares of Virgin America, so there's no uptick in the value of the ETF for pumping VA. In fact, the opposite is true as they are heavy into $LUV.
Finally, I know the argument against SWA purchasing an Airbus operator, but I don't think that's a block. In fact, in light of Russia decertifying the 737, even momentarily just recently it shows a weakness or over reliance on a single type. An over reliance that may come as a bit of a roadblock to an airline as large and with as much ambition as SWA.
Again, I'm not saying SWA is going to purchase VA (in fact I don't think that's likely at all, I'm not sure there's much that VA offers SWA), but I don't think it's far fetched to think that SWA wouldn't purchase an airline just because it's all Airbus.
I think the overseas investor or hedge fund is the most likely, if any suitor for part of VA.
Secondly, US Global Jets ETF declares no shares of Virgin America, so there's no uptick in the value of the ETF for pumping VA. In fact, the opposite is true as they are heavy into $LUV.
Finally, I know the argument against SWA purchasing an Airbus operator, but I don't think that's a block. In fact, in light of Russia decertifying the 737, even momentarily just recently it shows a weakness or over reliance on a single type. An over reliance that may come as a bit of a roadblock to an airline as large and with as much ambition as SWA.
Again, I'm not saying SWA is going to purchase VA (in fact I don't think that's likely at all, I'm not sure there's much that VA offers SWA), but I don't think it's far fetched to think that SWA wouldn't purchase an airline just because it's all Airbus.
I think the overseas investor or hedge fund is the most likely, if any suitor for part of VA.
The Benzinga article was written by Rebecca Sheppard. From a quick google search, it looks like she's a young freelance writer who pumps out articles on topics she knows nothing about where she's paid by the word.
Example: She said that Frank Holmes is the CEO of JETS ETF. A financial reporter would have referred to Mr Holmes in this context as one of the portfolio managers, not as CEO. Holmes is the CEO of the parent company (US Global Investors Inc) that launched the ETF. He is also the portfolio manager of JETS along with Ralph Aldis.
One thing that may be holding down the share price (other than the fact that VX doesn't really own any assets) is that there were a metric ton of options issued prior to the IPO where the exercise price on many of them was anywhere from a penny (a LOT of those) to, if memory serves correctly, up to $50/share. Most of those cheap, cheap options were issued to Virgin Group Holdings Ltd.
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